Member Info for Halba12

And since this production issue re Telfer already in the market in June, probably severely overdone. I believe cos people on the ASX have been finicky on mining stocks of late- BOE uranium gave a big production downgrade yesterday but that is a crap deposit.

AFter some thought , i found GGP posted the June presentation - in June - which shows the revised guidance in terms of production(not the AISC which was flagged previously by SD it appears in prior meetings), it has already been mostly in the market for two months+ and they didnt care then. Never seen a company drop on already given information from a long time ago.

Yep huge credibility discount now at current prices.

Realistically should be around 400,000 + ounces combined and i was conservative on the numbers. IF gold goes higher again, should be higher margins, and close to $900-1bnBN in ebitda all said and done, so its selling for $3.52BN today so 3.8-4X the future numbers which is low.

Thats fair. Its not terrible value at these levels ,circa market cap 3.52bn aussie for potential 350,000 to 375,000 low AISC producer once Havieron comes online(around $700M EBITDA assuming conservative $2000 margin per ounce, cost AISC around $2200 just say for Havieron optimised).

Issue is credibility/execution, so a fair discount now at current levels due to these issues and Havieron hasnt started production yet.

Yep ill be on it. In hindsight, Newcrest sold Telfer for a reason, and the reason is self evident to all today- Telfer is an absolutely average mine. Havieron - hasnt started production yet so we cant judge that, the main valuation of GGP is actually the Havieron(and combined optimised operation) not Telfer which is a legacy operation.

This isnt an industrial or tech share where some profit gets a 30 PE ratio. this is a miner, any miss on guidance will be punished and its a serious credibility issue for their 2nd mine Havieron and also future production from Telfer. Nothing can be believed from the company mouth in the future.

Did u look at guidance? nearly $2800 AISC which is a total shambles plus way lower production.

I will be on there personally. and asking them why downgrade so soon after an ipo. re old stockpiles, why wasnt all this information done and presented at the time of ipo so they dont have to downgrade risking market credibility so soon after ipo. a total shambles.

Market is forward looking, doesnt look at past figures. way lower production and way higher costs. this is borderline criminal so close to an IPO. what were management thinking at the time of IPo? they shouldve gotten the figures correct then.

Page 8 of quarterly downgrade from 300-340k ounces @ $2400-2600 AISC to only 260-310k @ $2400 to $2800 (much lower production and much higher cost- pathetic)

borderline criminal to downgrade so soon after an ipo - production outlook was given at the time of the ipo only 2 months ago ish.

Page 8 of quarterly downgrade from 300-340 ounces @ $2400-2600 AISC to only 260-310k @ $2400 to $2600.

borderline criminal to downgrade so soon after an ipo - production outlook was given at the time of the ipo only 2 months ago ish.

Production and AISC

Gold production guidance is for 260 – 310koz Au at an AISC range of $2,400 - $2,800/oz Au.

Production guidance has been moderated from the 2-Year Outlook production target of 300 – 340koz at

AISC of $2,400 - $2,600/oz Au announced by the Greatland group in April 2025. This follows an

assessment undertaken subsequent to the final FY25 results and as part of the FY26 budget process,

which included risk weighting the potential for lower gold grade of the existing ROM stockpiles mined in

2024 prior to Greatland’s acquisition of Telfer, and certain open pit areas intended to be mined in FY26.

page 8

Horrible ipo. Borderline criminal to downgrade so soon after an IPO on the ASX. It beggars belief why this information was not available 2 months ago when they IPOd? Why downgrade now? When conducting an ipo, its important to get all the facts/information right. This shouldnt have been ipod on such rosy forecasts, only to downgrade later.

Company credbility is now basically at zero, there is no faith they will even deliver on Havieron either.

Telfer(at circa 200,000 ounces) prints circa $50m AUD net cash a month @ current spot.

Remember- most ASX gold stocks trade at a premium to LSE values. So if that holds im expecting a modest premium on day 1 circa $6.80 on the ASX. And it will trade there onwards depending on gold price movements and announcements e.g. drilling, indexation news or Havieron FS.

$6.60 is the ASX IPO price. i dont expect it to trade at $6.20 a 5% discount. Something like $6.75 to $6.85 for a 1st day(2.2-33.5% day 1 stag) seems more possible.

10.50-12.50 aussie seems a reasonable forecast, especially if gold price gets the 2nd wind.

Given the cash flow projections, at current spot, it will be turning over $1.5BN in EBITDA on 500-550k ounces. Multiplied by 4-5 times EBITDA(standard mining valuation), then i get around similar figures 10.50-12.50 depending on how the gold price goes and what range of EBITDA the market wants to use(whether 4x or 5x)

A scrip bid/ merger may be in the offing for AZY(circa 2.5mil ounces), probably the best undeveloped junior on the ASX.

ASX shares SLed as EOFY shenanigans, GGP is comped off those names, combined with a slightly weaker gold. Note, NYSE top gold names still at or near records- AEM, NEM, AU and KGC.