Member Info for Halba12

ASX goldies all mostly being SL- stop lossed as EOFY shenanigans for those in Aus- ASX goldies CYL, PNR, AZY amongst the names hit that have run hard like GGP. AZY is just a few km from GGP as you know. That is why the downdraft and GGP has gotten sucked into it a bit.

Cadia a good 26km from ORange which is far enough away.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/jX9dvtyvmvXnHJhq9

I think that Mcphillamys was in a bad spot. Too close to the town of Blayney(8km) Thats why its a complete duster. 8km is very close. Especially as its an open pit mine.

Ms Plibersek today released the Statement of Reasons behind her decision to protect part of the Belubula River, its headwaters and springs near Blayney, from the tailings dam earmarked for the site by Regis Resources McPhillamys gold mine.

backs on to these key areas which are used by Orange.

Thats correct .5 billion from 4.4bn ipo is 14% day 1 possible. Lets see how much it gets re rated once listed on the ASX.

Any signs of Telfer mine life increase/exploration/ Havieron ramp up or Gold price and were looking at $6bn plus eventually.

Actually re RRL or EVN there is an IPO- Linq minerals here for those interested

it closed recently. Reasonable demand for it. IT has 1mil ounces at 1g/t. Not near Mcphillamys- but closer to the other side of the MAcquarie ARc, near EVN, where there is no opposition to mining.

https://linqminerals.com/

https://linqminerals.com/project/ marked in red.

Im from NSW, that MCphillamys has no chance of mining- it backs on to a major regional town a few hours away- Orange. Got no chance of mining that, i think the market has realised this and priced it entirely out of the valuation.

All the value from Duketon and Tropicana.

This doesnt affect RRL as Mcphillamys is 100% certainly valued as a DUSTER by the ASX. 100% of the market cap of RRL is from the 2 mines- Duketon and Tropicana (50%)

3 main closest comparables are GMD $5.3bn, SPR/RMS(merged $6bn) and CMM $4bn(circa 300,000 ounces production once MT Gibson comes online- is a bit lower market cap but within the range), even RRL $3.6bn is also another 4th comparable u can use(circa 350,000 ounce sustainable production in the future)

Based on these, it comps out to be over $5bn market cap on the ASX listing- around $7 per share from $6.60 IPO price on the ASX. IT is currently trading at 17 pence or $7 per share funnily enough. Further extensions of Telfer, any further discoveries or closer to Havieron production will all rerate it further, beyond any further gold price increases(which will also increase the comps equally i.e. ceteris paribus)

EVN is mainly a lot of copper as well- a lot of revenue is from copper and NST is too big to compare(NST is more comparable with AU and GFI in New York).

Hi what legal dispute are u referring- IanCurtis?

Dont know what that poster is meaning- this company is debt free and in a net cash posiiton. It has a bank facility for the development of Havieron. There is no shortfall of funds for that project. It also has EBITDA from its Telfer operation(it produces say 250,000 @ $2500/AUD cash profit per ounce which is circa half a billion profit in a year)

SPR/RMS combined market cap is over $6bn on the ASX. Resources are in the 12mil ounce range(so a slightly more than GGP in total). GMD also market cap is 5.3bn for a similar production profile to SPR/RMS.

As per https://www.rameliusresources.com.au/wp-content/uploads/bsk-pdf-manager/2025/03/2025-03-17-Transformational-Combination-of-Ramelius-and-Spartan-Presentation.pdf

Production around 500k ounces(combined SPR and RMS) by late this decade. GGP will probably be slightly better if they extend Telfer(say around 550K with Haveiron and Telfer mine life extensions).

GGP market cap at IPO is $4.4BN @ $6.60 per share - ASX. Given the competitors at $5.3bn and $6bn, this should trade in the $5bn+ range(but not as high as SPR/RMS as it has ultra high grade deposits from SPR)

EVN not a fair comparison as EVN has a lot of copper from 2 predominant copper mines - Ernest Henry & Northparkes

These two mines the majority of revenue is from Copper.

Best comparison is GMD and Also SPR/RMS combined market cap which has similar ounces to the GGP in total.

These were scrip takeovers- NST/DEG and RMS/SPR just to clarify. so its scrip is the most important currency.

I imagine they dont need to pay majority cash for any takeover. Similar on the ASX examples include SPR/RMS and NST/DEG(which is now delisted). GGP also an ASX mob.

Fed has no mandate with respect to gold, and definitely is not doing anything on that front- re $3400/oz. Its just got some overhead resistance there, and also its had a big run, some profit taking is normal. Need to wait a few weeks to see for sure re that level.

Wr.t. banks, there is no bad debt issue in Europe and any issues in derivatives .I hold Commerzbank and it is making high daily.

GGP will be consolidated to 20:1 on LSE and 20:1 on the ASX to make it even

So the broker will cancel all 20 of your shares and then proceed to give you one share in return.

Next tues 1PM sydney ASX listing time.

$6.60, should trade around north of $7 - comps GMD, SPR/RMS, CMM, and RRL are the main comparables in its tier($4-5bn market cap area).

Yep, @ 1pm starts trading on the ASX sydney time.

Yeah sure mate. it will be active on hotcopper as most goldies are.

in terms of fundamentals, its got 10 mil ounces+ so its right up there for ASX Australian predominant mines. Just behind NST and EVN. In terms of resource ITs more comparable to De Grey, prior to takeover by NST( but DEG had no production or operating mine is the only difference).

In terms of mine life concern re Telfer, Telfer has 3mil + ounces in resources, so 200,000-250,000 ounces means they can probably get another 10 years plus from that asset with more infill drilling.

In terms of Havieron- thats a world class asset. Theres also AZY Antipa(2.5mil ounces) which is next door, which is rumoured to get a bid from GGP which may occur once its listed on ASX (likely via a scrip deal like RMS/SPR, potentially) AZY is has no mill.

In terms of raw fundamentals, it is a top 3 Aussie ASX gold stock . Excluding NEM which is a NYSE large gold company(with mines everywhere) the top 3 in terms of ASX - 2029 production will be

1) NST - around 2.5mil ounces due to Degrey takeover

2) EVN - ARound 800k ounces of low cost production /copper credits

3) GGP - ARound 500-550K plus ounces incl possible Telfer extensions. ***

4) GMD - ARound 500K ounces

5) RMS/SPR - ARound 450-500k ounces