First target 0.15p π₯12 Sep 2025 09:03
EME research
On 16 July 2025, Conrad and PLN EPI signed a binding GSA for all the gas produced from the Mako gas field to be supplied domestically. The GSA provides for a total contact quantity of 392 one thousand billion British thermal units ("TBtu").
1. PSC Framework (Indonesia β Duyung PSC is conventional)
Typical Indonesian gas PSC terms (simplified):
First: Contractors recover costs (βcost recoveryβ).
Then: Remaining βprofit gasβ is split between Government and Contractors.
Contractor share: Often around 35β45% of profit gas (varies by contract, but 35% is a conservative assumption).
Tax: Corporate income tax ~30%.
For this estimate, Iβll assume:
Contractor take of profit gas: 35%
Income tax: 30%
Cost recovery: assumed already covered by capex spent, so focus on profit sharing.
2. Gross Contract Value
From earlier:
Low case ($7.5/MMBtu): $2.94 billion
Mid case ($8.5/MMBtu): $3.33 billion
High case ($9.0/MMBtu): $3.53 billion
3. Contractor Take (before tax)
Low case: 35% Γ $2.94b = $1.03b
Mid case: 35% Γ $3.33b = $1.17b
High case: 35% Γ $3.53b = $1.24b
4. After Tax
Low case: $1.03b Γ (1 β 0.30) = $720m
Mid case: $1.17b Γ (1 β 0.30) = $820m
High case: $1.24b Γ (1 β 0.30) = $870m
5. Empyreanβs 8.5% Interest
Low case: $720m Γ 8.5% = $61m
Mid case: $820m Γ 8.5% = $70m
High case: $870m Γ 8.5% = $74m
β
Net Value to EME
On a realistic PSC/tax-adjusted basis, Empyrean could expect around USD 60β75 million in net revenues over the life of the GSA (2025β2037).
That equates to roughly $5β6 million per year of steady cash flow to EME (assuming smooth production and sales).
EME current mcap Β£3m π₯π