RE: Prime for a buyout15 Jul 2025 08:59
Thanks Evman, great post. Reminds me of an often overlooked part of fusions business.
In a 2021 investor interview, then-CEO Paul Kerr detailed a part of Fusion’s business many investors overlook: its growing portfolio of milestone and royalty-carry antibody programs.
At the time, Fusion had:
• Deliberately assigned no value to these carries at IPO in 2017, to avoid overpromising on projects that typically take 10 years to reach approval.
• Already progressed 11 out of 33 early antibody programs into the clinic, with some advancing into Phase 2 trials.
• Amassed 25–26 milestone-carry projects, with potential payouts ranging from £100,000 milestone fees to low single-digit royalties on drugs that could generate up to $1 billion in sales—meaning $10–20 million per successful candidate.
• Expressed confidence that the first milestone payments would start to crystallise in the following financial years as these candidates moved closer to market.
Since then, time has moved on, and those programs are years closer to maturity—some approaching pivotal clinical milestones and commercial inflection points. Some could also have fallen away.
**Crucially, if Fusion’s OptiMAL platform proves itself in the market, it could transform this royalty pipeline from a one-off asset into a recurring, self-replenishing engine. OptiMAL enables faster, higher-quality antibody discovery, which could mean:
• hopefully more licensing and co-development agreements.
• which means a growing stream of new milestone-carry deals added each year.
• Material long-term entitlements to royalty payments that could dwarf Fusion’s current revenue base.
In my view Fusion’s early royalty pipeline is likely to be approaching the point where milestone payments can start flowing.
And if OptiMAL delivers on its promise, this pipeline won’t just pay off—it will expand and compound, creating a durable source of significant upside that could reshape Fusion’s long-term earnings profile.