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There were many instances in the lithium industry where offtake agreements were signed in the period between DFS and FID. The question is whether what was submitted in December can truly be considered a complete DFS (as someone already mentioned it doesn't go into detail of FEED etc)

Another question is directed to Hunter16, what buyout offer price or what formula did you hear? Noone is asking you to disclose your sources but it would be useful to be specific if you decide to tease everyone here.

Of course it makes no sense to sell now, there is no volume and still upside, my base scenario is it should get back to the end of 2021 levels of AU$1 to $AU1.5 once FID is made. No idea how a buyout formula should be calculated but the valuation multiples shouldn't be below some similar projects like VUL or LAC.

The zoning plan rules were approved (38 for, 5 against, 5 abstained).

https://i.postimg.cc/cLTXYZkS/cinovec.png

Monday 9am local time the voting should take place: https://www.kr-ustecky.cz/zadost-1049 here they say it is on the original agenda but the point will be added anyways

I've taken a look at some of the projects planned in Portugal and Spain and they're a bit crazy even for non-European standards. Near towns and villages, some near Unesco sites, some open pit mining. Long transport, not exactly high ore concentrations, no rail nearby, draining water.

EMH is perfect in comparison. The most controversial thing is probably the Ropecon. The issue of them "not having permission" is pretty clear, you cannot get a permission if the zoning plan does not allow it. To change the zoning plan, you must get approval from the local municipality (Ustecky kraj). That was tried in December but because EMH delayed the DFS and EIA, the voting was before they were submitted and the local representatives complained they did not see the documents. The next voting is on Monday.

After that it should be straightforward. Most of the land is owned by the state (Lesy Ceske Republiky) but if you want to dig in, you can go to https://www.katastr2.cz/ and look at the individual land plots and compare them with a map of the ropecon from the DFS (you need a Czech IP/VPN for access without login, otherwise it may block you or ask to login)

It's thin, has no US listing so it moves like an amplified platinum / palladium instrument. Average daily range 5%+ so this is all normal. Can still gap up hugely on the earnings later this month.

The next meeting of the municipality will be on Feb/9 when the zoning plan should be approved.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DUO-b5MiCfF/

Last time they didn't vote because it was before submital of the DFS and EIA. This time they should have it and previously the representatives signaled they will vote in support.

All metals and miners crashing since Friday, gold, silver, platinum. Lithium miners on the ASX such as PLS actually held up pretty well.

@ghin I'm just waiting until this forum turns into two AI chat bots patting each other on the shoulders. The only thing this RNS says is that EMH had barely any money at the end of the last month before the raise. That doesn't stop the regulars here from creating 10-point posts about how exciting it is.

Can anyone explain why tin and tungsten was not mentioned even a single time in the DFS? Either it would disproportionately increase the opex or the DFS is still only semi-detailed and needs a lot of work in terms of FEED (which would mean no offtake agreements in the next months)

Jemesa's sentence sums up everything about EMH in the last 4-5 years: "Good old Keith has woken up on a rocket ship after taking a few wrong turns".

Clueless CEO with no experience, no effort and no self efficacy manages to end up in a great position because everyone did the right steps, EU, Czechia, CEZ - now even Trump! - while KC was sleeping.

The Monday EU open and Tuesday US open could be wild if Trump doesn't change his mind. Especially for names like CRML / EUR.AX but even for export-oriented large caps like NOVO and ASML.

The optimistic analysts expect 15% CAGR for lithium for the next 5 years. Smaller EV battery sizes outside the US are compensated by demand from BESS/ESS. All the producing miners like SQM, LAR, ALB have a strong confirmed bottom in mid-2025. So $25K is possible even in 2026.

However, my understanding is that lithium is not a commodity in a true sense like copper. It's more like uranium - many deals are done OTC, projects and contracts are done based on politics and not economical viability, the commodity sometimes trades below production costs.

That said, I still can't find any information whether the EIA was submitted on time. Again no communication from the company...

ASX down 5%, London up 8%, feels meaningless to discuss this until there's more news from CEZ.

I was hoping the DFS would bring more liquidity to this stock but either everyone is on holiday or there is zero interest from institutions. A single holder can move this 10% up or down with a single market order.

Tin/tungsten credits can decrease the opex by $1500-2000 but I still have no clue why they weren't mentioned in the DFS so don't be too optimistic. Energy policy change from 2026 on can also decrease the opex by $500-1000+ Other line items of the opex such as owners costs, transport can increase on the other hand. Reagents no idea.

If this was a fully commercial project with no grants and no strategic interests, noone would even consider it with lithium prices below $20k.

@sporazene is spot on, CEZ has experience in mining, grid and battery infrastructure, nuclear/coal/gas power plants, BESS, dealing with the government and permitting etc. but zero experience with lithium chemistry. The state can bring money as an equity partner (ministry of finance) or debt partner (NRB) but again zero experience.

Europe is clueless in this, Chinese easily dominate it with price and Australia with experience. When you look at the DFS summary, the companies working on it were mostly Australian (and one German) iirc. Geomet did some basic drilling and coordinating it all.

Sorry, in the example they'd have 61% of Cinovec, not 59%.

Having the state as an equity partner on the EMH level doesn't sound that bad because I don't see anyone else excited about it. Maybe the Koreans / Doosan... Vulcan got lucky with Hochtief, EMH and ZNWD probably can only dream about that.

US (through DoE) owns 5% of LAC and 5% in the Thacker Pass project company, so total of 8.1% I believe.

Czechia owns 69% of CEZ which means 34% of Cinovec indirectly.

Babis asking for an equity stake in EMH is not out of the question. I never thought of it before... If the state owned 100% of CEZ and 10% of EMH, they'd have 59% of Cinovec and Babis could use it in his campaign that he got the white gold back from the evil Australians. Minority shareholders don't lose completely and benefit from easy access to financing.

You can look at the new nuclear project (Dukovany), they have a bridge commercial loan which will be converted into a state loan soon (state giving itself money and calling it a loan https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/ekonomika-finance-komentar-neviditelna-pujcka-jak-funguje-trik-s-uctem-za-dukovany-278491). That gives you an idea how stategic projects with unconvincing economical prospects are done...

emh has become the european version of american lac. cinovec has higher opex and lower capex than thacker pass but both projects have strong government involvement, underwhelming project economy and a feeling that they must be completed to be less dependent on china. i'd say this feeling is even stronger in europe because eu can't rely on trump knowing his views on tariffs, ukraine etc.

i expect the opex to drop a bit until fid thanks to energy and reagent costs, capex is crazy but comparable to vul. i wouldn't be surprised if znwd never progresses once they've seen emh numbers.

so the near future is pretty clear and i have to agree with skelly. it will likely go ahead, get constructed and at some point there will be a buyout. the buyout is complicated by the fact that it may not be cez doing the buyout but the czech state itself as cez would be nationalized by then (same story and same causes as edf in france). czechia had big plans with a tesla gigafactory, battery factories etc. before any permits were done, elon just built it in germany already. same with other planned investments, emh is the only large recent investment, largest in the region and one of the largest in the country. so if even emh at this stage is cancelled, babis and havlicek will look like complete ******s

i wouldn't expect the czech government to rip you off. if there's a buyout in the following years, they will offer a fair price that is in compliance with the shareholder agreement and with the npv. if lithium prices don't completely collapse and grow 15%+ annually, buyout could be 100p+. financing mix of debt & equity is a different question. if there's large equity financing, the 100p buyout is not a 5 -bagger but barely a 2-bagger. in 2021 i was hoping for a 10-bagger. then the chinese flooded the market, kc did.... not sure what he did exactly, relocation had to be done and now i'll be happy to break even inflation adjusted after so many years.

Thanks for the comparison @sporazene , the capital intensity of $44/t doesn't sound bad. If Vulcan with $106/t went through, I can see CEZ/Czech government not having major issues with it. Even Rio Tinto was considering higher capital intensity for lithium projects iirc.

Opex went up a lot, inflation, relocation... And the tin/tungsten credits which are missing. If you remember this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=08uaHdC6bos&t=2070s around 34m30s KC says that between the DFS and the FID, they will work on "optimizations" to "improve the economics". I have zero experience with preparing a DFS so i don't know if its normal to firstly omit something only to add it a few months later...

The financials are not great even if you assume 15%+ annual lithium price growth. However there will be political support from the EU in 2026 and if Vulcan and Keliber are operational, it makes sense to get Cinovec into production as it is better all things considered.

They're assuming:

Price for Li2CO3 (USD /Tonne): 26,000

Pre Tax IRR (8% Disc. Rate): 15.2% with grant

Post Tax IRR (8% Disc. Rate): 13.2% with grant

Pre-tax NPV8%: US$1.715bn

And the lithium price move by +-20% would move the NPV by $1.5B either way. That's not very reassuring but now politics and the EU will play a much bigger role. It's kinda similar to China - China also has mines and processing facilities with not so great economics but has them running due to geopolitical interests.

This is the loan that CEZ provided for Dukla repaid via shares. The same RNS was there a month ago and the two months before that. Likely with fixed terms and now not very relevant compared to the DFS that should be delivered (my bet is Dec/22)

Jugding from Lionheart (Germany) and Keliber (Finland) the dilution for capex could be anywhere between 50% and 200%. And yes, he said there will be another capital raise between the DFS and the FID which will probably be single millions.

It feels bad to see a good resource such as Cinovec managed by someone such as KC who clearly doesn't know what he's doing. Compare it to Lionheart (VUL) which was very speculative and doubtful but the CEO managed to turn it into a real project within 5 years. Because their CEO is actually a competent person with previous experience in the lithium industry. I have no idea what KC has been doing before EMH, can't find anything relevant (actually anything at all).

Tl;dr some random politicians representing random places asked random questions to which they can find an answer in 15 seconds if they ask ChatGPT. The mayor of Dubi (where the mine actually is) asked the decision to be postponed until the DFS is available. Nothing was achieved but at least it wasn't rejected (and even if it were rejected, the national government can reverse the rejection).

Https://teplicky.denik.cz/zpravy_region/geomet-tezba-lithium-krusne-hory-20251215.html

The regional councilors had on their agenda today the approval of the update of the territorial development principles, which defines the areas and corridors for the mining and processing of lithium and defines the area for the storage and processing of materials from mining activities and the treatment of lithium concentrate in the Tušimice mining area. The mayor of Dubí in the Teplice region, where the mining plant is to be located, Jiří Kašpar (ODS), requested a postponement of the decision, as there is still no feasibility study and there are no expert studies regarding water pollution, noise, dust, the impact on the status of spas and on transport.

Opposition councilor and MP Jaroslav Foldyna (SPD) asked what the project would bring to the Czech Republic, opposition councilor and senator Zbyněk Linhart (STAN) asked that it be clear before the decision was made what the Ústí nad Labem region and its inhabitants would gain from the project. According to the law, the region would receive a fee from the extracted mineral. Representative and senator Jan Paparega (Better North) joined in, wanting to know how much the state would earn from mining, if annual gross revenues of six to eight billion are expected. After the meeting of the clubs, Deputy Governor Tomáš Kirbs (ANO) said that because there were questions that were not answered, he was withdrawing the item from the agenda. The region will send a list of questions to Geomet.