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How much did they pay for the options, what are the contract details and penalties? That is what I can't find anywhere. They bought a tiny adjacent piece of land and then paid some undisclosed amount (they even mentioned they pay it annually) for the right to buy the actual land. They bought a tiny plot for $50K and then god knows how much in options and possible penalties for the big land plot.

"Non-dilutive balance planned via refinancing CZK 121m (approximately A$8.86m) Dukla loan and/or sale of surplus Dukla land.

Given the proposed plant relocation to Prunéřov, most Dukla land is no longer required. Consistent with EMH's strategy to minimise shareholder dilution, the Company is progressing refinancing and/or partial or full asset sale options. Negotiations are advanced and EMH expects completion in time to meet its Cash Call obligations."

Two years ago they bought land for some ridiculous amount, it's not clear how much they paid in cash, how much in option fees. They bought land which was strategic and crucial for the project, now it's kinda useless and they want to find someone who will pay the same amount they did. So how much did the company lose in this action in total?

@Skelly85 I can't think of any good reason to do it now

I can't find any data on the capital raise. Is it confirmed the reason is capital raise and what amount?

@squeaky19 I think all the people here saying "we don't know what Putin wants" look at it from the perspective of a Western mindset and a globalized world. They are trying to overanalyse and negotiate and when it doesn't work, they are stuck. True for both random forum posters and politicians.

For Putin it can be as simple as he explained it. And part of his actions may now be revenge and lust for old times, just look at the CCCP jacket Lavrov wore in the meeting. Zelensky is stuck on the fact that the Ukrainian constitution doesn't allow him to give up any territory but he doesn't offer any alternative. Maybe he was expecting the Russian economy to collapse and hyperinflate in 2025 but that's not happening so far.

It's disappointing that CEZ (who isn't that interested in the project in the end) is releasing more information than EMH and KC.

The TV report didn't say that any specific decision will be made in November. It just mentioned that a local municipality "working group" (doing god knows what) will meet in November and by then it could be clear if the project is green lighted. The time frame seems more like a random deduction of the reporter with no source, she even contradicts when she said in the middle of the video...

The article in the second link is way better but only mentions EMH peripherally and just shows the sad state of another lithium project nearby (mined landfill) which never even started despite having all the permits.

@Chuckypowers The DFS was mostly delayed because of the location change, not because of lithium prices. They always considered some theoretical average of future prices (which was often not related to current prices).

Today's increase is likely on news of CATL halting production in their largest Chinese owned lithium mine. All lithium stocks were up in Australia and now in pre-market US.

Someone probably accidentally placed a $10K market order on EMH and it moved the price 10% which is sad (but it also means there can be huge upside on a good DFS with increased Li prices). There are really no traders, no institutions and no shorters in this stock, just bag holders

If you look at the CEZ 2023-2025 investor presentations, in the 2023 and 2024 documents, the lithium project was mentioned at least as a footnote on one slide. It is completely missing in the 2025 presentations. Unfortunately, the grant is relatively small if you compare it to the political consequences of pushing the project too hard.

It's also possible that the elections will be won by Babis (populist/centrist) who mentioned several times before he'd like to nationalize CEZ completely (now 70% state owned) and he wants to keep profits from lithium in the country.

In that case, the most likely scenario would be a buyout of the EMH's 49% stake, no idea about the buyout price because such transactions never really happened before in the country.

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, these were the ceasefire conditions:

No further use of force.

Cessation of hostilities.

Free humanitarian aid access.

Georgian forces return to bases.

Russian forces withdraw to pre-war lines, with limited peacekeepers allowed

Georgia never recognized the territory as Russian and as of now they are recognized "independent" (read Russian) by Russia and Venezuela. They use the Russian currency and there are border controls. I assume Zelensky values human lives more than Putin, for Putin 1 million or 2 million dead is just statistics. Zelensky will realize that there is no better solution and agree to a deal presented by Trump (Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea is Russian).

So Zelensky doesn't need to breach the constitution, he can just do what Trump suggested - agree on ceasefire and pretend everything is all right and in limbo for the next few years until Russia again forgets where it's borders end.

I admire the positivity of Fingersxed but at the same time I can't find a single local news source that would inform about this permit or the previous news. Noone in CEZ (or Czechia in general) cares anymore.

So this just seems like a random PR release to divert attention from potential problems with the DFS. Or at the very least it is a permit that was considered granted by everyone involved for a very long time.

Trading volume is depressing and these PR releases do not help at all. There is still hope for a DFS, increase in price&volume and an honorable exit for the long term holders at a slightly bigger price than the 2024 tragedy (but still below 2021 levels).

@italianpizza it makes sense to do technical analysis on stocks that have significant volume, institutional investors and analyst coverage.

There's no magic pattern right now. Actually, if you look at the daily chart and invert it, that is also a "cup and handle" (which is technically bearish). The stock is in 45-50p range. Immediate downside probably 40p and upside unclear. If you know Weinstein analysis, it is in stage 1 right now and to move to stage 2/rise, you need a catalyst and there is only one obvious catalyst for this stock. The end of the war.

Yes, if you zoom in enough, it is a cup & handle for ants.

And in the end the pattern is meaningless if all depends on the decision of two (three?) guys with huge egos. Look as the Warsaw exchange today which has some Ukrainian stocks listed. The charts look similar today on the news of Trump's 50 day "ultimatum".

It's far from the only project in Europe. Just in Germany you have ZNWD, VUL, then something in Finland and if the situation in Ukraine resolves, also there.

Serbia is pretty much out of the picture, I think that must be obvious to everyone now. The local opposition there is even higher than with EMH. It's a dull situation, makes no sense to sell now if you're a bag holder but also makes no sense to buy due to low volume. And it's a HUGE question whether some price/volume catalyst is coming this year.

There's some news that a hedge fund (Pale Fire Capital) acquired 3% stake in the company. They consider it kinda a Buffett-style play, good company at good value but boring and low liquidity. Some of the recent volume spikes could've been them. Recently they were also involved in GRPN where they were an activist investor (which is not what they plan here).

The bad thing is that the decision now exactly coincides with the parliamentary elections. Current (center-right) government may not have enough time to cooperate with CEZ to make the final decision.

The elections may be won by Babis (centrist/nationalist/random bs dude) whose goal is to nationalize CEZ, regulate energy prices and other stuff. If he sees the current structure in which 49% of the project is owned by a "shady Australian entity" (he called EMH that in 2021), he may force CEZ to scratch the project, cancel funding and focus on nuclear projects.

On some days the volume is less than $10K, crazy hard to estimate the price by year's end.

This makes it even more confusing. I just hope that the article's author confused EIA and DFS. The spokesperson is not very specific and "this year" can mean anything. And EMH is silent...

Many scenarios are on the table and it's extremely confusing because the press releases from Ukrainian government do not make any sense and claim to confiscate assets which they in reality can't (if they want to avoid international arbitrage).

One way out of all of this would indeed be transferring Zhevago's share to an US company (or forming a partnership) whilst keeping the share rights of all other shareholders. Once there is at least some clarity, this stock can go to 125p+.

A lot of the content of the EIA should be just recycled stuff from the preliminary studies and documents. The positive news is that compared to several years ago, the project now has support from CEZ and the country's government (Ministry of Industry).

Which may not be enough if someone local opposes the EIA and it gets delayed/forgotten for some reason.

The volume traded is so low it can easily go both up or down 50% in a week.

@onsolidground I'm not disagreeing that there will (probably) be some court hearing if the mine were to be seized&nationalized.

What I'm saying is that the press release definitely sounds like one part of the government simply wants to take half of the UA company (and not the LUX holding) and this way avoiding any international courts or arbitrages so that the entire process stays in Ukraine. That would mean each FXPO share would be worth at least 30%+ less.

I'm trying to tell you that your "worst case" which you posted below may actually be the "best case" and there is an even worse worse case possible. However, I have absolutely no idea because the press release does not go into details.