The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Another bad read out for inflation in the US - PPI this time - that could torpedo any bitcoin push for today :-(
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Well the flows for yesterday are in - looks like another great day of $477 net inflows. Grayscale dump starting to pick up again of $174m but overall eaten up. Hopefully the sale from Genesis is starting to flow through already which might take a week or two to churn through if they trickle feed it through responsibly.
The whole "multiple" theory of bitcoin going up ~$1000 for every $200m of net inflows has just taken a bit of a hit over the past 24 hours but we of course do not know the more traditional selling pressure (or buying pressure) out side the ETF's). Will be interesting to see how the youtubers that have been discussing this theory spin this today.
Coinbase earnings were awesome and went up 14% after hours - I can only imagine Q1 2024 is better than Q3 2023 so that bodes well for the crypto space. Anyone investing in DAGB bitcoin innovators ETF will be pleased as its a chunky constituent.
Miners yesterday got hit by profit taking it seems as bitcoin did not really move and the US markets were positive - I doubt today will be much of a move either way but we know nothing goes up in a straight line.
With bitcoin sticking to ~$52.3k I would just see this as a bit of profit taking in the miners - they have all been on an absolute tear last week or so. Looking stateside most of the miners are down so I dont think its bitcoin price related or even specific to argo.
Must admit looking at the inflows for blackrock btc etf yesterday I was shocked they were so 'low' bearing in mind the actual daily volume - so not all buying it seems.
https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Coinbase results after the close - if Q4 results are good you can just imagine how good Q1 24 will be with the ETF volumes - lets see what impact that has on tomorrows movements of crypto related stocks (with hopefully a corresponding push over $53k on bitcoin over night also would not hurt)
The ARBK ADR in the US is $2.99 in very early pre market - $2.99/ 10 /1.265 = 23.6p equiv - so not sure whats happening on the LSE even there...
"This is going to rise when BTC hits 52"
Its not though is it. I mean bitcoin is ~$52k and ending higher every day and this is still around the placing price.
If we had not had a placing - where do we think the price would be now - 40, 50p? Something is not right.
Yes Dagenham - British Hodl - I did cite him as a reference in my first post mentioning this multiple :-)
I just watched that video on that chap reviewing the miners (reminded me of Blonity - what happened to him...)
Interestingly his sheet says MARA is not making any money either at btc $50k - thats confused me as I thought MARA was one of the best in class?
Remember the 'multiple' I mentioned that was roughly $200m of NET btc ETF inflows = $1K extra on the bitcoin price.
yesterday was +$600m and we are going from late $48k's to early $52k on bitcoin price, so roughly +$3K - so in the ball park of the estimate.
Even if you halved this estimate we are still looking at $1-1.5k a day added if these etf inflows hold up. Pretty positive stuff.
So there we are - a meaningful break above 50K and the US is not even up yet. Not sure where the next resistance is but I have a feeling after yesterdays inflow number gets out a bit more this could really start rocketing.
what a difference a day makes...
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
This is all you need to look at. The flows are just getting bigger and bigger - most recent 4 day average over $500m/day NET inflows.
If this carries on nothing will get in the way of bitcoin surging, and in turn the miners.
The recovery reaction of bitcoin since the market sell off yesterday is incredibly bullish. I look forward to where this is going on a neutral or positive news flow day... :-)
"Inflation came in 0.1% above expectations and miners dropping double digits ! Stupid"
Its about rate cut expectations and this has pushed it back some more I would think, or at least justifies the Feds hesitancy. It was expectation of earlier rather than later rate cuts that helped push the markets and bitcoin to where we were as of last night. It will be the same in the positive direction when they do finally flag rate cuts - this has just rather thrown water on the fire... for now.
So the inflation number just came out - sadly higher than expected and so all the markets will dump now. Lets see if the initial drop on bitcoin gets eaten back up quickly - if it does can you imagine what it will do when the inflation figures come in better than expected...
Gullab,
"slavering idiots who tempt you with their garbage hoping to lure you in to buying for their benefit."
As far as I can tell, the detailed, factual and most useful messages on this board are actually warning people *not* to rely on Argo investments long term. They back up with facts which unfortunately do not look good long term.
The muppets who just come in and say "its going to 34p by 3.12pm today" and "its was £3 years ago - a bargain now" etc etc are not fooling anyone anymore so I dont think we really need a warning about them - they are not convincing anyone to buy LONG TERM - most like Openheimer are being filtered at this point as they add no value. The volumes are fairly good these days on Argo so I don't think anyone on this board is going to sway the price too much with their advice.
There is probably money to be made short term on Argo with an ongoing bitcoin supply shock but longer term other miners or buying bitcoin directly is probably a much safer bet, especially as we get closer the the halving and the industry starts to take a really close look at who will survive and who will not. Ideally you should make your choice NOW and not wait until that point.
I think staying on the sidelines is probably not the best advice - IMHO this is a once in a lifetime opportunity for many to take advantage of the mainstream adoption of bitcoin in the financial markets - perhaps not with Argo though.
Other than the other points about ETF inflows I have already made - todays market and also bitcoin movement is literally all about the inflation figures - everything will start moving one way or another when they come out - so until then - better to get some work done and not look :-)
@UndergroundKing - I already put (IMO) what the drivers will be today, short, medium term - read earlier.
Why do people feel compelled to just post wild claims on the share price with nothing to back it up?
Today bitcoin is struggling with the 50k physiological level. As someone mentioned there might be profit taking at this level but if we get some good US inflation numbers that will impact interest rate cut expectations today we could easily see bitcoin smash through this level and go higher with the broader market and other risk on assets. The opposite could of course happen if the inflation data is bad.
Just understand that despite all the good news around bitcoin and its trajectory - this is not going to go up in a straight line each day.
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
another net inflow yesterday of just under $500m.
There is youtuber - British HODL - that has used Bank of America data and more to come up with a multiple - watch his latest video here:
https://youtu.be/z4_k3eNAEpk?si=jDkSl_hFe0kY3Mud
Put very roughly, for every $200m of NET inflows to the ETF's - the price of bitcoin goes up $1000.
Look at those flows and keep score - do the maths - Grayscale selling is starting to lesson, demand for the ETF's, especially when $50k is popping up all over the internet is keeping up demand - if not increasing it.
Lets see what this week brings - lower inflation print later (which I think we will get) could REALLY get things moving also :-)
50k rejected for the time being - must be a lot of resistance at that physiological number. Only a matter of time until it tries again.
Thing is all of the excitement is based on bitcoin going from 48k to 50k - thats like just over a 4% move. Imagine when bitcoin hits all time highs...
With good inflation figures tomorrow and a continued reduction in Grayscale outflows combined with the sort of bitcoin ETF inflows we have been seeing last few days - I should imagine bitcoin will break $50k.
https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Then you'll get a LOT of free advertising all over the news networks regarding that milestone - then let the FOMO do its thing.
It means the coming supply shock will push bitcoin price through the roof - and that can only be good for miners... which includes Argo. The question specifically for Argo is will the bitcoin price post halving be enough to keep it in the race or would it be better to switch to one of the other miners in a stronger financial position for better returns?
As I said in a previous post - its possible with a good bitcoin run that a lot of money can be made in Argo short term - but medium / long term bitcoin would have to go parabolic to make Argo profitable, and I think in the meantime its lost too much ground to the competition.
Which one of the competition you should switch to is open to debate but if you want to 'spread your bets' across multiple US companies in the bitcoin space, this UK based ETF (which Im also in as well as Argo) is a good option :
https://www.vaneck.com/uk/en/investments/crypto-etf/overview/
Https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
These vales are normally all over Twitter and youtube each day but they really are worth watching. The daily volume and *IN* flows for bitcoin are getting more and more impressive. On 8th Feb it was $405m , even allowing for Grayscale, yesterday it was +$541m!
You can start to appreciate the supply shock that is coming if these ETF's keep up this volume and Grayscale stops offsetting the demand. Then factor in other bitcoin spot ETF's in Europe, Canada and future ones from potentially Hong Kong Kong not mentioned in these stats....let alone people buying bitcoin directly.
The future is looking very bright for bitcoin price, and in turn the best miners, especially post halving. Imagine daily net inflows of $250m -$500m buying up bitcoin supply with only 900 and soon to be 450 new bitcoin being added to liquid supply a day in the future...
You can see how this could rapidly become a snowball of FOMO as word of good returns gets out to the masses and additionally bitcoin ETF's start getting added to the regular monthly passive fund offerings in the US....