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US ADR = 10 LSE shares.
So current Nasdaq ADR price is $2.45
f/x rate is $1.26 = 100 pence
so one share in the US is 24.5 cents / 1.26 = 19.4p equiv
Well I have not even looked at this board for weeks, let alone posted - thought I might check in today with such a nice move for bitcoin and I see its the same people going backwards and forwards on the same questions with the same answers. Such a waste of energy - most people will never budge from their views so its a losing battle trying.
HOWEVER, having said that - Its fairly clear even today that you can get a still get 20% daily gain on Argo despite all the comments of demise post halving - so in a way both sides of the argument are right - its both a good and bad investment. Depends on your timeline and luck. The worry is not to be left holding the bag if you are trying to take advantage of both scenarios.
I have a little confession to make actually - in the time away from this board ( I recommend that by the way) I've been looking at MARA (some awesome youtube interviews out there with the CEO are worth a watch), some of the other miners and a particularly nice bitcoin related ETF (ticker DAGB) and have actually come around to some of the points that have been made on here. Just took me a while. So a bit of discussion on other miners in this space as an alternative to Argo in case it goes pear shaped is actually quite useful - as long as it does not hijack the board completely.
As someone once pointed out, probably to my own protestations (sorry about that) - there is not really another dedicated board on LSE site to talk about the main US competition or alternative options for those that want to stay invested but maybe not so much Argo.
Full disclosure on my part - I have over 200k shares of Argo - never sold any of them despite dramatic loses. Now Im just looking for an exit point (was 50p , but since the 30p and then pull back I've lowered that target now) and will instead reinvest that money plus some more into probably MARA or that ETF I mentioned for a bit more diversification.
Good luck everyone else with what you decide.
Another interesting take from this youtuber
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=00c70gcHFHo
Pointing out how Coinbase sold $7b of bitcoin yesterday but it was OTC, not via exchanges.
so imagine the scenario that people are selling actual bitcoin or bitcoin via greyscale holdings which are driving down the prices on the exchange, but then buying the spot ETF's that are using OTC bitcoin already bought at an agreed price...
Eventually they will run out of OTC availability and buys would have to go on to the exchanges - but it would explain a lot of this recent bitcoin price drop.
The placing is suddenly not looking so stupid ...all miners being wrecked, not just Argo.
Seems all the miners getting punished - look at the volume for MARA for example as I know lots of you own it also - 28m shares in 45 mins - they are all on the same trajectory though - perhaps a rotation out of miners into spot ETF - which in itself is not really behaving either . All vey disappointing really, certainly in the short term.
Another interesting chart :
"CME BTC FUTURES LAUNCH ,
COINBASE LAUNCH,
BITO BTC FUTURES LAUNCH,
ALL MARKED THE TOP...COULD BE TIME FOR A HEALTHY PULL BACK?"
https://twitter.com/cryptomacro14/status/1745700743422828553
More 'evidence' to throw into the mix ...
Https://twitter.com/cryptomanran/status/1745699856667099345
you can read the thread above
Talking about buys and sells - apparently there is now some discussion on twitter regarding the bitcoin ETF inflows yesterday were actually netting out to zero.
the discussion centred on the $4.6b of traded daily volume, half of it, $2.3b was volume just from Greyscale, and that was allegedly mostly outflows.
So it seems , at least in the early day(s) that the actual 'inflows' were minimal in which case we are still very early on this. Once the shuffling from one account to the other dies down - only then will we start to be able the actual OVERALL AUM of the new sort ETF's and how much is actual inflows - once we see the net inflows start to build hopefully that will translate into a steady rise in btc price and by extension, hopefully also the miners.
With apparently several $billion of inflows into the new ETF's today already in the first few hours, it makes you wonder how on earth there are enough sellers to bring btc back down like this. Amazing moves to be honest - I wonder how they will spin it on the TV later.
This is the exact opposite advertising I bet they were hoping for - now all the interviews today with the various ETF issuing CEO's are going to be a bit awkward... Im sure Cathie wood will make up her usual bs ...
Everything bitcoin related is turning red - , even with bitcoin at 47.5k - you could not make this up... what a lottery :-)
30m trading volume for LSE - and still an hour or so to go - seems the prices of all the bitcoin related stocks /ETFs are all calming down a bit now after initial euphoria - hopefully bitcoin gets to $50k at some point over the next day or so and that will be lovely headlines for the ETF providers - will become a self fulfilling prophecy.
I did read this: https://www.investopedia.com/spot-bitcoin-etfs-8358373
but it only mentions this in regard to actually buying the bitcoins:
"The ETF then issues shares corresponding to a set number of bitcoins it holds. The ETF share price should reflect the prevailing market price of the cryptocurrency, and the shares are available for public trading on traditional stock exchanges. So the ETF shares track the price of bitcoins as closely as possible, and the ETF occasionally rebalances its holdings by buying or selling tokens.
This process of creation and redemption is done by authorized participants (APs). These are typically large financial institutions, which create or redeem shares of the ETF based on market demand. If the ETF shares are trading at a premium or discount to the actual price of bitcoins, then the APs create or redeem ETF shares in large blocks, essentially arbitraging the difference so that the ETF share price alignments with the cost of bitcoins."
This is the bit that confused me - "occasionally":
" ETF occasionally rebalances its holdings by buying or selling tokens."
I asked this question yesterday Hexam -Im still not clear what drives what?
Lets say the ETF has 100 bitcoins in it and someone wants to buy $10m dollars of it - then surely
a) the price of the ETF has to be 100xcurrent spot price of bitcoin - in realtime pricing - no amount of extra demand would push the price up
b) BUT then $10m would buy over 200 bitcoins - so would the ETF then go out and IMMEDIATELY buy 200 more bitcoins at the current spot price to cover the inflow and then the NAV of the ETF is suddenly 300 bitcoins x spot price and there are now 200% more units of the fund?
If $billions come in and they HAVE to buy bitcoin at the current spot price IMMEDIATELY to add to the fund you can see how the price of bitcoin could rocket really quickly.
Again - Im not sure which leads which here - perhaps any ETF expert can clarify?
Let the churn continue - 38m shares added to the tradeable float today - this might take days to work through. nearly 18m shares traded today and we are half way through - volume could really jump if bitcoin and ETF volume spikes later - only 2 hours to wait now - although inflation announcement in 1 hour also very important for the markets.
Its looking at a made up price from April 26th and then applying 25% to it - I dont think anything is "up" yet as we dont have a base launch price....
Wayne - you want to post some links to where you see the ETF trading?
I don't see anything here in pre market yet...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/quote/IBIT.O
RNS : NOTICE OF ADMISSION TO TRADING ON THE LONDON STOCK EXCHANGE
ARGO BLOCKCHAIN PLC
38,064,000 ORDINARY SHARES OF 0.1P, FULLY PAID (BZ15CS0)(GB00BZ15CS02)
Would explain the latest wall of shares at 21.5 ...
I cannot see on Level2 (can anyone shed any light?) how many shares are on offer via "BEGO" at the 21.5p mark but three more trades at the ask (EVERY trade is at the ask - its crazy) just went through for 150k and 250k and 100k and its still not making any headway. Once these shares have gone however I do think it will move up quickly to meet the pre market US price for the ADR
There is a wall of shares from Market Maker BEGO on level2 - just like yesterday - every trade is at the ask but the wall just stays there. It will get broken down eventually but until then - the price is not going to change much.
Someone is offloading a LOT of shares.