My thoughts....6 Mar 2022 11:05
Avon Protection had a rollercoaster year from a SP of 4500 about a year ago they announced problems with supply chains and Labour market, so lowered years guidance and the SP dropped to £18. They also said the body armour division had sent body armour to US military and it had failed first stage testing. The SP dropped to £10. They could not fulfil the need of the US army body armour requirements, as they want all kinds of nice things like wearing Victoria's Secret bulletproof string below the armoured body shield (excuse the sarcasm). It can't work because at one end you have to accept having less protection or more comfort. They are now shutting down the body armour side of the business after fulfilling existing contracts over the next 18 months. They rightly so lost investors faith as should of done more due dilligance before buying this part of the business off 3M a few years ago. The body armour section of the business was less than 10% of revenue/profit. The management have made massive errors but now they are mitigating against supply chain issues and labour market is improving all be it slowly. The SP drop was over 75% for these errors BUT the other sections of the business are doing well with growing sales and the tragic sutuation in ukrane will only strengthen customer demand for all military/first responder breathing aparatus and PPE. There currently sitting just above £12 have Total Current Liabilities 47.50 million, Market Cap of 373 million and are forcast to make a prifit of 45 million next year and currently using 18.5 million for share buy back. They won't be doing and aquisitions the next year then I m guessing they will start aquiring other companys again. There the only sector to increas in value the last week and worth a look as I think could do well over the forthcoming weeks/months/years due to
1/ military demand,
2/ improving covid related issues,
3/ high return on equity deployed low debt,
4/ sentiment was damaged hopefully results change this,
5/ Just out a few days ago, by 2024, Germany has now promised to spend 2% of its GDP on defense and has created a special off-budget fund worth €100 billion.
6/ China increasing military spending 7.2%,
7/ The rest of Europe all all talking about roughly doubling there military budget.