Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Small position here from last year and also Vela Technologies which is a similar company investing in early stage investments. MCAP £10.7M. Two companies in Vela's portfolio Cornerstone and MTI Wireless have today announced positive RNS's. Both LTH holds for me.
Tomozulu
I agree, get the DHSC dispute out of the way and we move on. The company has some great products, a growing team and cash in the bank. Diagnostic testing in all forms will be a growth industry and Novacyt shareholders will benefit from this. Be Patient!
Even basic company valuations, taking out the DHSC figures gives you a valuation of twice the current MCAP?
https://www.company-valuation-services.co.uk
Way under valued if you do the maths and take out DHSC figures. £36M at 50% Profit Margin= £18M x 4 = £72M for the year
X 10 (Valuation) = £720M + Cash Assets £150M = £870M. Current MCAP value £250M. £870M / £250M = 3.48 3.48 X 350 (current share price) = 1200 Need to sort out the DHSC contract so we can move on!
Q1 trading update and 2021 outlook
Novacyt delivered revenue for Q1 2021 of EUR83.0 million (GBP72.6 million). Approximately 50% of Q1 revenue was driven by sales to the DHSC, predominately PROmate(TM). The remaining c.50% of Q1 revenue was driven by continued growth of international sales and expansion of the Company's private sector testing operations.
Sorry Gazman you are correct. Miss calculations. Sorry about that, yes minimum SP should be around 600 at present taking out DHSC figures. This only values the business at 6X gross profit, plus £150 Cash and assets. 6X Gross profit for a diagnostic company is very low. Should be be 10-20 X
Take the 1st quarter revenue and take out the DHSC figures gives you £72M revenue.
Gross profit at 50% Minimum gives you £36M (remember we have been working on 80% GP)
£144M Profit for 2021. Valuations on very small companies are usually 5-6 times profit plus assets. We are talking great IP here, leading products, growing staff numbers, bolting on other companies. The MCAP at a minimum should be:
£144M x 5 = £720M + IP and assets £150M = £870M
So really share price should be 1232 as a minimum. BE PATIENT
With different variants of Covid and other epidemic disease, see below. Novacyt will continue to grow. Be patient.
Srinagar: The administration of Jammu & Kashmir Union Territory on Monday declared black fungus or mucormycosis as an epidemic disease under the Epidemic Diseases Act- 1897.
https://kashmirreader.com/2021/05/24/jk-declares-black-fungus-as-an-epidemic-disease/
I agree, hang on to your nuts. The 23rd April RNS gives me the reason to be patient here. The product portfolio and IP is exceptional. We are making money and GROWING as a company. GROWTH= SP INCREASE in my opinion.
With the MCAP now at £260M. Cash in the bank say £130M. This company has to be worth more than £130M even without the monies owed on the DHSC contract. The products and IP are of real value for any potential suitor. Take a look at the last RNS about products and new variants. This will remind you were the company is. GROWING, DEVELOPING. The market is treating us like an aged old industry business which is going down the pan.
MCAP of Novacyt undervalued. If a loss making Diagnostics business fetches £110 Million. What must Novacyt be worth? My view a lot more than it is currently valued at!
PerkinElmer Inc Offer for Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings Plc. Values IDS at approximately GBP110 million ($155 million), This implies an enterprise value of IDS of approximately GBP88 million ($124 million).
Adjusted EBITDA, our core metric for measuring underlying profitability, decreased from a profit of £2.9m in H1 FY20 to a loss of £0.8m in H1 FY21. Within the period, Adjusted EBITDA has followed the same improving trend as the revenue, with a loss of £0.9m in Q1 recovering to a profit of £0.1m in Q2.
Hopefully we will see a settlement with Novacyt resolved soon. The government during the whole procurement process over the past year really don't know their Ar** from their T*t!
Like this from the Times today from market watcher Mark Vermeer.
He added "What did Gates, Bezos and Jobs have in common? They never gave a s**t about short-sellers and analysts because they knew if profits would grow their share price would follow."
Novacyt is growing, be patient.
One thing to come out of the NovaTalk webinar yesterday is we are in a world where there won't be less testing. Testing is here to stay and we will need to coexist with the virus. Nova is DEVELOPING & GROWING, this will bring benefits to the SP and the MKT CAP will reflect this soon.
Hopefully Scancell is part of this!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56984984