Member Info for GreyPanther

Ho Tovoc. I've had a look at your $80 / barrel and £700k a month calculation but I can't really make it work - unless you're talking about the entire field. Have I missed something? The reported 884 bopd was an "instantaneous" flow rate, not a sustained production rate. So, assuming Wressle is currently averaging 600 bopd at $71 ($80 less $9 operating costs) x Europa's 30% = $12,780 per day. Assuming £1 = $1.37 and an average 30.5 days per month, this would give Europa about £285k / month, IMO of course. And 100% of Wressle's production would yield about £950k / month after deducting the reported $9 opex.

Hi ivans. Where did you get this Biscathorpe gas idea from? Bisc is an oil prospect / discovery and, as far as has been reported by either Egdon ad UJO, no gas was recovered when either BP's Bisc-1 or Egdon's Bisc-2 well was drilled. Still, it's good to see the SP moving. I think it's mainly down to Wressle and the fact that Brent is trading at over $79 today.

Heid is right to say that we have missed out on what could have been an excellent royalty deal from the Claymore & Piper oil fields. We probably won't now know all the deal's details, thanks to some very noisy posters on various bulletin boards, but most royalties are straightforward punts on the oil price. These two particular North Sea fields are nearing the end of their lives but it's nearly always the case that the higher the oil price goes, the longer the field life is likely to be extended. The royalty deal was first announced in UJO's Interim results RNS on 13 Sept when the Brent oil price was $73 to $74. It's now at $77 and is expected by many to go higher. I therefore hope that UJO's board will reconsider it's decision when the dust has settled.

Hi isdeer and Bridgedogg1. I don't see any need for an Egdon placing either, and certainly not with the projected Wressle income. I'm wondering, though, if that projected £500k Biscathorpe sidetrack cost might not be on the lean side. Is this figure based on anything said by either EDR or UJO, or is it just an intelligent guess? I've been told that onshore drilling costs have increased quite a lot lately and, depending on the length / distance of the sidetrack, I would not be surprised at something closer to £1.5 million gross.

I don't really see UJO buying Egdon, Why would they want to operate Egdon's numerous licences, or acquire Egdon's now highly unattractive shale gas licencs? IMO, UJO already holds more equity than Egdon in most of the best licences, eg Wressle, Biscathorpe and Keddington.

Hi gogetter. I'm with Phoebus on this. I think Wressle can, and may already have done so, produce at a much better rate than 500 bopd. I base my hopes on the fact that Europa's Crosby Warren well - which isn't far away - had a proppant squeeze / mini frack job many years ago when RTZ O&G was the original operator. Production at CW increased many fold at the time, although I can't now recall by how much as it was so long ago. However, the well is still producing profitably more than 20 years later. No doubt time will tell us all here at Wressle.

Hi Bridgedogg1. North Kelsey is in a similar area of Lincolnshire to Wressle but, having looked at some seismic lines over both structures on the UKOGL website (that's the Onshore Geophysical Library, not UKOG) I would say that it's not as attractive technically as Wressle. This is presumably why Egdon have not been able to farm it out yet, but have merely re-arranged the North Kelsey equities so they are now 50 /50 with Union Jack. There continue to be on-going licence costs at North Kelsey in the pre-drill phase, and UJO have deeper pockets than Egdon. But maybe our Wrsssle success will encourage other companies to have another look at NK.

Sorry cloves. Arithmetic may not be my strong point, but Welton and Singleton are not currently making over 1,700 bopd. The published figures from the OGA via Drill or Drop are in tonnes of oil per month. So, assuming about 7.5 bbl oil per tonne, 1,750 tonnes per month is only about 430 bopd. That means Wressle is currently No.2 behind Wytch Farm.

Hi Cloves. My posting wasn't meant to be negative, so I'm sorry you thought it was. Bearing in mind the pre-squeeze flow rate may only have been in the 80 to 100 bopd range, it's a very good rate.. And it's still early days, so the well is probably still cleaning up, with improving flow rates each day.

Based on Union Jack's interim results RNS this morning, it's possible to guess at Wressle's average production rate over the 22 day period from 19 Aug to 9 Sept but it's pretty "rough and ready". I'm also making two big assumptions here: 1. UJO's approx. $300k is cash received before making any deductions, or payments for opex etc and (2) the oil price has averaged about $70 / barrel over this short time. Based on $300k for UJO's 40% interest, I reckon the group's 100% share must have been about $750k gross and this, divided by $70 / barrel, gives us 10,714 barrels of oil over the 22 days. This gives an average of 487 bopd. I also assume the flow rate would have been significantly lower than the average rate for the first few days, so I can see where UJO's "significantly exceeding" 500 bopd comes from. And another guess: Wressle will probably have had some days in the 600 to 700 bopd range. In any event, though, I'd still like to see some "real" numbers from Egdon as the field operator.

It's possible to "guesstimate" Wressle's average production rate over the 22 day period from 19 Aug to 9 Sept but it's pretty "rough and ready". I'm also making two fairly large assumptions here: 1. UJO's approx. $300k is their cash flow or turnover before making any deductions or payments for opex etc. and (2) the oil price has averaged about $70 per barrel over this period. Based on UJO's $300k for their 40% I reckon the group's cash flow must have been (about) $750k gross which, divided by $70 / barrel, gives us 10,714 barrels of oil over the relevant 22 days. This gives us an average of 487 bopd. Since Wressle's initial flow rates would presumably have been much lower than the average rate for the first few days, I can see where UJO's "significantly exceeding" 500 bopd comes from. As yet another guess, I would have expected Wressle to have had the odd day of production in the 600 to 700 bopd range. But in any event, I'd still like to see some "real" numbers form the Egdon as the operator..

Hi Bridgedogg1. Egdon can, and already have, produced more than 500 bopd from Wressle, albeit only over an approx. 24 hour period, so it must be physically possible. There are several potential constraints, but none of them is believed to be insuperable or legally binding from a planning perspective. These limits could include (1) the number of road tanker movements allowed. At more than 500 bopd they will need 2 or 3 tankers per day but it's not a vast amount of extra traffic. (2) Egdon obviously knows the capacity of the separator and the oil storage tank(s) on site, but we don't. And (3): Ultimately the OGA's consent will be needed (and maybe the EA's and HSE's consent too) to produce from Wressle at a technically sustainable rate when the field is finally declared commercial. All of these questions should be answered by the current EWT. This has now been underway for only 3 weeks since the squeeze job was concluded. So, it's still early days but I'm quite optimistic that they will be able to, and will be allowed to, produce from Wressle at more than 500 bopd.

Jamesthesecond. Yes, I own quite a few Angus shares, but I still don't think what you posted at 12.07 made much sense. Well, not to me, anyway. You said "I want to witness 5 pence SP NOW and this is very possible". The Angus SP may well move up from its current low level and, as a shareholder I obviously hope it does. But it's not going to happen "NOW", is it? There are still a lot of hoops for the Angus board and the SF project to jump through, let alone our other, rather more nebulous onshore projects, particularly the geothermal dream.

Jamesthesecond says "I want to witness 5 pence SP NOW and this is very possible". Sadly, and bearing in mind the current SP range of 0.8p to 0.9p, the most obvious response to this imust be "Dream On" as it's completely unrealistic. Just look at the board's and most of our assets' historic under-performance

Hi Copper3. Regarding Wressle, we may get an update fairly soon from UJO when they announce their interim results to 30 June when they could perhaps give a "post 30 June" events update. In any event, Europa RNS'd on 24 August that 500 bopd had been achieved from Wressle over a 24 hour period, so it wasn't merely an "instantaneous" flow rate, but a reasonably sustained one. I think they must have now been on stream for about 3 weeks since the squeeze was carried out, so I'm still very hopeful..

Hi gogetter. Maybe we'll get a Wressle update fairly soon from UJO when they announce their interim results to 30 June. They could also give a "post 30 June" events update. Egdon's and Europa's year ends are both on 31 July, so we may not hear any thing very soon from either of them. In any event, Europa RNS'd on 24 August that 500 bopd had been achieved from Wressle over a 24 hour period, so it wasn't merely an "instantaneous" flow rate, but a reasonably sustained one. I think they must have now been on stream for about 3 weeks since the squeeze was carried out. So I'm still very hopeful regarding Wressle.
Ceres, is another matter, but it's possible its life will be extended a little by higher North Sea gas prices, as has happened with oil at some of the smaller offshore oil fields.

Thanks Serif. Your comment regarding potentially lower opex per barrel at 750 bopd certainly makes good sense. Let's hope it happens!

Hi flatearther. Does your comment at 7.57 mean we won't be hearing from you ever again? If you mean what you say I reckon you will make a lot of people happy.

Hi Tovoc. Apparently there's a rumour on other partners' boards that Wressle might be able to do 750 bopd in the longer term, rather than the expected and now actual 500 bopd. If the Opex is $9 per barrel, as Egdon indicated some time ago, and with the current $73 oil price, we could net 225 barrels per day x $64 ($73-$9) which would come to a net income for Europa of $14,400 / day. At $1.38 to £1.00 the sum is about £10, 435 / day and, assuming 11 months / 330 days of oil production each year to allow for 35 days for well maintenance, this would yield £3.44 million per year for us. This Is a very useful income if things continue to go well at Wressle.

A link to some presumably recent (?) photos posted on UJO's board this afternoon suggests that testing is over at the B-1Z site. Rathlin are meant to be moving to test the A2 well next, so we may get an RNS fairly soon. What's wrong with tomorrow?