Member Info for GreyPanther

I hope it will be all about WN and very soon, preferably tomorrow morning.
Let's hope it's not a non-event or, even worse , a no gas / oil ..... yet.

I was told a few months ago that Petrichor, and presumably a majority of Egdon's board, were happy to maintain their UK shale gas portfolio. Unfortunately for me, I'm no longer interested in it because shale gas been going nowhere in the UK since the Govt's fracking ban was imposed two years ago. I also think it the shale gas licences must gobble up quite a lot of cash in licence rentals and admin costs, and in management time, of course. So maybe it would be better for we smaller shareholders if Petrichor and Egdon were encouraged to exchange the 46% holding for the whole shale gas portfolio. This would allow them (Egdon) to get on with what they do best, their conventional onshore O&G activities, and would have the added benefit, from my POV anyway, of getting a major institutional shareholder off their backs. IMO this might get Egdon's SP moving again. Oh well, it's only a pipe dream!

One possible reason why Egdon can't get their SP moving in the direction we all want is because so many of their shares are in so few hands. After the latest placing and attendant loan note conversion Petrichor and its concert parties owned about 46% of Egdon's shares. IMO this is something of a constraint on any real share price action.

Hi there Tonno1944. I'm also happy with the Wressle news, but some of us would like a bit more reassurance than Mark Abbott's rather bland statement that it will have a "transformational impact" on Egdon's cash flow. There's little doubt that it will, hence the guesstimates seen below and on their partners' bulletin boards. Now we've been given a 500 bopd flow rate, and can see the current ca. $70 oil price, we're better placed to estimate what Egdon's annual turnover might be. We've even been given, although it was some time ago, an indication of the field's full development costs. Like RNST, I remember the estimated $9 per barrel field operating cost. These numbers are very useful in helping investors to understand future cash flow and profitability. I appreciate that some of us may not be very interested in this kind of thing, but maybe we should be.

Hi Cloves. I do know something about the people running EDR, EOG, RBD and UJO, and have met many of them, but I certainly don't know all those things. I assume you don't either, so why so touchy? Generally the market gets it right in the end, even when we don't. All the best.

Is it possible the market regards UJO as a better run company than either EDR, EOG or RBD? I'm not convinced it's only that, but the answers might be interesting.

There hasn't been as large an increase in Egdon's SP as we might have hoped, or even expected. But we're currently up by about 5% , whereas EOG and UJO are only up by 2% to 3%. Maybe this merely indicates that EOG and UJO have been on the move for several days, whereas EDR always seems to have trouble waking up. Could this be a decent week for EDR price-wise? I certainly hope so.

Hi Rubey. This morning's RNS about the 500 bopd Wressle flow rate is a very decent result for EDR, EOG and UJO, but could you please say a bit more about why you think it also it strengthens RBD's position in the West Newton JV since I don't see it that way myself. IMO, the Wressle news means that there's a lot less pressure on UJO to sell WN but RBD's position is unchanged, as far as I can see. Thanks.

Hi there Heidelberg. What makes you think the Chairman is rather "rather dodgy"? When I last looked, which is now some time ago, I though his previous history looked OK and was relevant to a small oil co like EOG. Thanks.

1,000 bopd (barrels of oil per day) would be great, if it's true. IMO this may be a bit premature, and it could be 1,000 barrels of (some) oil plus all the gunk left over from the proppant squeeze. It's still potentially very good news, though. If post the squeeze operationthe Ashover Grit can, , now push out fluids at 1,000 barrels per day, whatever they are. This, to my mind, indicates what the well could do once it's - I hope - flowing only dry oil. There could still also be some gas and reservoir water along withthe oil once it cleans up.

Hi Harryshang. I've wondered too whether Rathlin might have an IPO on their minds. IMO, though, they would probably only have been able to do this before RBD took their controlling stake. That's, of course, unless RBD might be willing to go along with it since ot suited them too. And it's worth baring in mind that when Rathlin were free to IPO without RBD's consent, they had only the dry hole at Crawberry Hill dry hole and the WN A-1 gas discovery behind them. I wonder if the drilling results since then would justify an IPO. I guess only yet more time will tell.

Hi RNST. I hope it's not just bloody mindedness! Egdon and its partners must presumably have a good reason, at least from their POV, not to publish the pre-squeeze flow rate(s). I suppose it might be embarrassment at the low production rate up to now of (say) 100 bopd which some posters on the Wressle partners' boards have been estimating from the tanker movements. Or maybe Egdon don't want to trigger the Calmar start-up payment(s) too soon; maybe not until the partnership has generated enough cash to pay the bills. But who can fathom how an operator's mind works? I certainly can't.

Regarding the cash payment(s) on first commercial oil production from Wressle, I vaguely remember being told the OGA's definition of field commerciality some time ago. It's apparently when the OGA give the field operator formal consent to produce commercially, and this can only happen after the OGA have approved the field's development plan. For Wressle this is still presumably in draft form. The OGA doesn't always move at the speed of light, so the cash may not have be paid until the partners have had the benefit of several weeks of "post-squeeze" production .... at whatever rate that turns out to be.

I think Egdon must now be OK for cash, and they may be worth a punt on the hoped for Wressle flow rate after the proppant squeeze job. However, they've a fair number of other projects that could easily gobble up money before too long, eg. their near shore Resolution licence which has been farmed out to Shell. There could quite easily be an over-spend on the 3D seismic programme as the block(s) are close to the coast and there could be "operational issues". An over-spend by Shell could see Egdon having to stump up cash towards it. But expenditure for this project is still some months away, I think.

HIS. Thanks for that. I agree that Gneiss appears to be larger / better resourced than Angus. I've also heard via the grapevine that Gneiss is inclined to be litigious, especially if they think there's a faint chance of a legal win and / or some financial compensation.

Hi there HIS. Could you please tell us the source of the Gneiss story. I've not heard it anywhere else. Thanks.

Thanks for that Bridgedogg1. According to Egdon, the placing was only approved by shareholders on 20th July, as per their RNS that day. I therefore assume they won't have received the placing cash until quite a bit later in July. So shortage of money could have been an issue at Egdon until about 3 weeks ago.

Hi there Uggy100. From where I'm sitting, S&S do seem to berather Inept, e.g. the foolish Deltic foray, and then the over-expensive Corallian investment top up. Over the last few months I've come to think of our two CEOs as "Ant 'n' Dec" because they have been so professional and have done so well for us. But what can you expect on AIM?

deemule. Why would I sell up just because you say so? It's much more fun having an occasional pop at t our so-called management from time to time. They certainly deserve it.

Hi minimil. I agree with your comments although maybe I should ask what you are doing invested here if you "would not touch any of them with a barge pole"? Can I also say that Lincolnshire Council aren't too bad with oily planning matters eg. Keddingtion and Biscathorpe. It's the left wing North Lincolnshire Council who have previously behaved so badly over Wressle.