Member Info for GreyPanther

Hi Olivia. I agree with what you've said. However, Wressle's production rate was ca. 715 bopd in October according to the NSTA (plus 82 boe of gas, or about 475,000 cu ft of gas at their preferred 5,800 cu. ft to 1 boe conversion factor). What we don't know yet is how much down time there was in November or December. It's only another opinion, but I reckon the November figures may show a short-lived fall because of the work on the facilities (possibly pipework and / or the separators) before bouncing back in December and the New Year. I would also guesstimate that, once the microgenerators have been commissioned, we could see sustained rates of better than 900 bopd in January or February.

The $0.6 million for the field development plan mentioned by i3E is presumably their 75% share, so it will probably be another $0.2 million for us. The $0.8 million can't possibly be the cost the entire Serenity FDP but, IMO, is only next year's costs / overheads. The full FDP will require numerous detailed technical documents which will first have to be compiled by i3E as our operator, then approved by EOG's board, and then gain the agreement of the owners of the Tain infra-structure through which the oil will be produced. I'dexpect that some of this work will already be already in progress. And then, one hopes, approval will be given to the FDP by the NSTA. All this usually takes quite a bit of time. Only then can the development work commence. So I reckon it will be several years before we'll be able to produce and sell our Serenity oil, even if all goes to plan.

According to the ADFVN site, some new wellsite wellsite pics have been posted on Twitter by roofershound at:
https://twitter.com/roofershound/status/1606717942535970816?s=46&t=kE3Ii5GEsD8OatOzxIBXLQ .
They appear to show 3 structures near the portacabins which may be new, so I'm wondering if the micro-turbines have been delivered recently. I don't know how big these items are but, if they are those turbines, maybe Egdon will get them tied in quite soon.

Some new pics of the well site have been posted by roofershound at:
https://twitter.com/roofershound/status/1606717942535970816s=46&t=kE3Ii5GEsD8OatOzxIBXLQ
They may - just possibly - show the new micro-turbines located near the portacabins.. I don't know how big these items are but, if they are the turbines, maybe Egdon will get them tied in before year end. I hope so.

itsawrap. I'm reasonably confident that Reabold will have sufficient cash to fund their 1/6th share of the next well, at say £2 million net. It's Rathlin's two-thirds share, about £8 million, that is currently bothering me. At 31 Dec '21 Rathlin had current assets of about £6.1 million. Of this only £5.35 million was cash. So who are they likely to turn to for the rest? We don't want our operator to be in poor financial shape. But maybe I'm being over-pessimistic too.

Hi itsawrap & Uggy100. I sincerely hope this scenario isn't going to happen as it would show, yet again, that S&S's words aren't always entirely accurate. No black humour intended here! Wouldn't our two CEOs' have known some time ago about the cost of the horizontal WN well? Rathlin must presumably prepare budgets for their partners. So are we now confident that Rathlin will be be able raise the money themselves without troubling RBD? I'm sorry, but I rather doubt it.

$0.6 million (presumably that's net to i3E, so $0.2 million for us) for a Serenity development plan seems very unlikely to me. It certainly isn't a huge spend but it's probably only next year's costs. A FDP requires numerous detailed technical documents to be compiled by i3E as operator, and then approved by EOG, gain the agreement of the owners of the Tain infrastructure, and then, one hopes, approval by the NSTA. All this will take quite a bit of time. Only then can the development work commence. So IMO it will possibly be several years before we'll be able to produce and sell our Serenity oil, even if all goes to plan.

Hi Uggy100. Some company execs will say almost anything to keep a well paid job, including promising improved shareholder communication. But when the crisis has passed, as it may have done- for now - at RBD, you can be almost certain that they will revert to their old ways. Of more immediate concern to me, however, is whether RBD will have to support Rathlin next year to fund the latter's 66.67% share of the horizontal well at WN. it 's been mentioned that this well might cost £12 million gross, so Rathlin will have to find ca. £8 million, which they clearly don't have. Does this mean that RBD, which owns nearly 60% of Rathlin, will have to stump up?

I see that Egdon have increased their stake in Waddock Cross to nearly 74%. Lucky old them! If I was running Egdon - which I'm not - I wouldn't drill again at WC until I had much more certainty about the huge amount of producd water there. Before WC production was suspended the water cut was around 90%. Also, if the next well fails, which it easily could, there are several oother suspended wells which will also have to be avbandoned. Regarding Avington, I now know very little about it, so I'm wondering if the extra 8.33% worht having. Any thoughts?

So Egdon have increased their stake in Waddock Cross to 74%. Lucky old them, I don't think! If I was running UJO I wouldn't touch WC with a barge pole as before production there was suspended the water cut was around 90%. Also,, if the next well fails, which it may, there are several oother suspended wells at WC which will also have to be avbandoned.

Sorryt to be a a bit of wet blanket here, but new wells drilled into a producing field aren't without risk, of course. It's worth remembering that several previous operators had problems when drilling Saltfleetby wells. Looking very far back, the British Gas SF-1 discovery well was abandoned without being properly logged, so that Candecca (I think) offered to drill a replacement well which was a success. in the end. Since then several development wells have been abandoned or side-tracked without reaching or testing their objectives. So it's not a "slam dunk", as many investors here will realise I'm sure .

Hi again itsawrap. You mentioned a few days ago (Thurs 09:11) that Wressle is currently producing about 480,000 cubic ft of gas per day. Most or all of this is believed to be flared, and it's presumably more or less equivalent to the 10 tonne per day flaring limit. So using 2 tonnes from this would be very worthwhile as it woud remove about 96,000 cubic ft / day from the picture. Your ink shows that a 300 kilowatt generator (not MW) would burn around 3,857 cu. ft / hour, or 92,568 cu. ft / day. So IMO only quite a small generator would be needed to make a real change to Wressle's daily production. It will be very interesting to see what generator will be installed by Egdon - and when!

I missed the divi RNS or the video in which it was mentioned by the CEOs. Could someone please tell me how and when we heard about it as I'm not yet certain there' ill be a cash dividend rather than a share buy-back. Thanks.

Hi itsawrap. I'm interested in the specs for your suggested 175mw gas-engine. If one of these can only burn about 54,000 cu. ft of gas per day , I'd agree that it will only use 10% / 11% of what's currently being flared. But there must be ample space on the well site to install a slightly bigger machine, e.g. one that burns about 2 tonnes of the present 10 tonne daily flaring allowance. I'd like to think, if there's the willingness to install are slightly larger engine, that Egdon might be temped to "waste" some of the electricity that's been genrated to increase production by say 20 to 25% rather than only 10%?

Thanks Olivia. There's a lot in what you say. Someone told me a while ago that Serenity was brought to EOG by Will Holland around the time of his arrival on their board. So if you don't fancy a geo-scientific assessment, especially wrt a promising prospect west of the Serenity discovery well (apparently there were "bright spots" all along the southern flank of the Halibut Horst), why would you believe in an accountant's wet dream? All the best.

I wonder if OliviaOIl and crushcutfluor (on Europa's board) are the same very well-informed person. They seem to shareideas about corporate mergers and the like. Any thoughts Olivia?

Please could demule explain how "Parta will come good over the next 12-18 months". We've been told that the licence is about to expire (or it may have already done so). And the latest six month licence extension has been used up by ADX with absolutely no tangible result reported to shareholders. Your forecast is simply wishful thinking IMO as it'sbased on no hard evidence such as an update from the company.

I am wondering why our tw over-worked CEOs haven't told us about Parta. It's presumably either because they don't yet know, so why not? Or perhaps they do know, and they don't want to share the bad news about the expiry of the licence. In either case it seems to demonstrate that they haven't so far improved their communications with shareholders.

The energy profits levy is a tax on an energy company's PFOFITS made in the UK, and it certainly not based on turnover. So, if Brindex are saying that - which I very much doubt - then they must have lost their collective mind.

It's 10% of UJO's issued shares, or 11,271,589 in total. It's from an approved AGM resolution:
"7 Directors' authority to repurchase shares: That the Company be and is hereby unconditionally and generally authorised for the purposes of Section 701 of the Act to make market purchases (within the meaning of Section 693(4) of the Act) of its ordinary shares of 5 pence each (“Ordinary Shares”) provided that:(a) the maximum number of Ordinary Shares authorised to be purchased is 11,271,589"