Member Info for greygeorge

'...Has GG not told the Gulf Coast LNG facility that DEC hasn’t actually got any gas and is filing for bankruptcy??? 😀😀...'

Yep, it certainly caught me by surprise, that massive surge in the share price on the news.

'...Complacency is a worse character trait.

But, judging from your further comments, you are absolutely the kind of person who champions state control and probably think that the central planners know best, with a hint of the Temperance Society to you, too.

Not everyone wishes to live a grey life, greygeorge...'

So, you think there should be NO controls, imposed by the State then ?

'...In England and Wales, the law does not allow for exemplary (punitive) damages as it does in the US...'

WRONG. Punitive damages are indeed allowed in UK law.

'...I enjoy a drink with my meal so hardly addicted to alcohol for gods sake...'

Then what's the problem with a tax rise on that occasional drink ? An extra pound a week out of your pocket ?

'...the alcohol industy is also going to get a bashing also as you're no longer allowed to enjoy yourself without the Labour Party's say so...'

Yep, nothing says 'I'm enjoying myself' more than alcohol induced public urination, A&E full of alcohol fuelled victims - and instigators - of violence, alcoholism and addiction.

'...But I do absolutely advocate freedom of choice for adults, which is of supreme importance to those of us who dislike the idea of de facto slavery...'

What a ridiculous comment.

'... Thus any claim the British Government might bring on big tobacco would have to be limited by the amount of revenue that the Government has enjoyed from the sale of tobacco?...'

Not necessarily. The US MSA netted billions for the States involved in litigation, plus ongoing payments to states' healthcare systems in perpetuity. This hasn't stopped some states heavily taxing tobacco sales on top of the agreed settlements.

It's the fine art of keeping the goose on life support, while it continues to lay the golden eggs.

'...GG youre the weirdest one here.... you really shouldnt be talking...'

Hearing voices, bensi ? Am I in the room with you now ? 🤔🤣

That's a risk that's always been there, since the US States lawsuits of the late 90s. It can take decades to resolve, but there's no reason why any country couldn't sue 'big tobacco' for historical wrongs. If anyone doesn't understand the risks, they really shouldn't be invested here.

As a footnote to the Canadian settlement, BC alone was looking for s settlement figure of Canadian $500 BILLION, so the final figure could be se seen as a 'win' for big tobacco against that backdrop.

I'm surprised no UK government has sued, given the state of the NHS and public finances. I guess the timeline of legal action makes it more attractive to tax current UK sales at an ever-increasing level for short -term gain.

The settlement does cover the whole of Canada though, not just the original plaintiff provinces and territories.

'...1/3 of USD 23.5 Billion is GBP 6 Billion so not too far off the 5 Billion they estimated, I think their point was more related to how it will be split between the 3 companies...'

Yeah....No.

'...We estimate C$32.5 billion aggregate settlement to be shared as follows: C$17 billion by BAT, C$11.5 billion by PMI and C$4 billion by Japan Tobacco. BAT’s share of the judgement in Quebec class actions were ~60%. We believe BAT’s share this time will be lower the Quebec case, but will still be more than 50% due its historically strong market position (with 50% or more market share).

PMI is likely to make an upfront payment of C$5 billion and pay out the remaining C$6.5 billion over the next 12-14 years. We also expect PMI to record a total impairment charge of ~US$1.5-2 billion if the Proposed Plan is implemented. Nevertheless, many market analysts assume zero or only marginal value for PMI’s Canadian operations. Following this settlement, RBH’s value is likely to be lifted to ~US$1.0-1.5 billion – with upside potential if RBH can demonstrate some success in the commercialization of IQOS and VEEV (- noting that the net income from these products are excluded from the settlement payments).

With less cash at hand (C$3.4 billion as of June 30, 2024) and the lion’s share in settlement amount to be paid (C$17 billion or more), BAT’s traditional tobacco business in Canada carries negative value based on the Proposed Plan. The open question is: what is the value potential of BAT’s alternative nicotine (VUSE, glo, ZONNIC) and beyond nicotine business in Canada? Initial market reaction implies “not large enough to make it worth for BAT to stay in Canada”...'

'...Let’s say it’s £5B they have agreed to settle (who knows) … '

Let's say you do a search and find the information that's out there, instead of guessing what three multi-billion global companies, their legal and financial teams, and a country's legal body *might* have come up with..

https://tobaccoinsider.com/tobacco-compensatory-damages/

'...Under the Proposed Plan, three companies will pay an aggregate settlement amount of C$32.5 billion (US$23.5 billion). This amount will be funded by

(1) an estimated upfront payment of C$12.5billion which is equal to the companies’ cash and cash equivalents on hand in Canada plus certain court deposits (subject to an aggregate withholding of C$750 million for working capital inclusive of cash pledged as collateral)...'

I'll leave it to you to read the rest of the last report, including page 35 et al.

'...Update on Quebec class action and CCAA

There have been no substantial developments in respect of the Quebec Class Action and subsequent grant of protection of the Group's subsidiary, Imperial Tobacco Canada Ltd (ITCAN), under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA). The stays are currently in place until 30 September 2024. While the stays are in place, no steps are to be taken in connection with the Canadian tobacco litigation with respect to ITCAN, certain of its subsidiaries or any other Group company.

In accordance with the CCAA process, the parties continue to work towards a plan of arrangement or compromise in a court-ordered confidential mediation. The length and ultimate outcome of the CCAA process, including the resolution of the underlying legal proceedings, remains uncertain.

In line with IFRS 10 (Consolidated Financial Statements), ITCAN is consolidated in the Group's results. For ease of reference and to assist the users of this interim announcement, in the six months ended June 2024, ITCAN's contribution to the financial performance of the Group was:

- Revenue: £409 million;

- Profit from operations: £228 million;

- Adjusted profit from operations: £230 million;

- Net interest income: £66 million and

- Adjusted EBITDA: £235 million.

At 30 June 2024, restricted cash in ITCAN was £1,972 million and restricted investments held at fair value are £445 million, with goodwill recognised on the balance of the Group at £2,320 million.

Please refer to "Contingent Liabilities and Financial Commitments" below (page 35) and the Group's Annual Report and Accounts and Form 20-F for the year ended 31 December 2023 (note 12 Intangible Assets and note 31 Contingent Liabilities and Financial Commitments) for a full discussion of the case and the assessment of goodwill. There has been no trigger to reassess the impairment position at 30 June 2024...'

'...Exactly. If we were talking millions rather than billions then fine… but billions raises some questions about how much and where EXACTLY is the cash coming from...'

The figures have changed a bit, but then again its' been 5 years since the companies' appeal to the original amount (inflation and all that, as well as going to mediation), and the spilt between the companies involved have to be ironed out - and no doubt, the longer that takes, every day interest will be added to the bill - but I don't know why you think 'billions raises some questions' - this has been known about since 2015, basically, when the whole thing kicked off in Canada. The case came to a head in 2019. So, if anyone's invested here without paying attention, that's on you, not on the company.

I mean, back in 2019-ish BAT Canada subsidiary filed for bankruptcy protection, and deposited a few million with the courts. I think the original judgement was less than the figure the mediators have some up with now. Plus the companies involved have to find some way to apportion the payment they'll be liable for in dividually, there's a lot of unknowns, even though the case has been lurking in the background for years.

'...Where BAT have announced that the settlement will be paid out of cash in hand and future Canadian revenue… I’m unclear where the cash in hand element is coming from? From the Canadian business or from BAT the parent company? And how much? Given it’s potentially a multi billion settlement this is quite important. Could it impact future divi payments in the short term or will the settlement be covered from existing provisions with the remainder spread out over years?...'

Dunno. Hence the drop today.

'..Perhaps speculators using this as a cover to smash it down and grab a few more...'

I don't understand this comment AT ALL. The bid/ask is the same for me and you and everyone else here as it isfor 'speculators'...whoever they are, lol.

'...But that's a known quantity and been rumbling on for years...Perhaps speculators using this as a cover to smash it down and grab a few more...'

Perhaps you could enlighten me then, as to the exact apportionment of settlement is attributable to BAT Canada, the timeline of payments, and amount of payments. Seems you know so much already, how about you fill in the blanks for lesser mortals ?

Canada legal settlement.

'...You’re on the list now...'

😱 🤣