Member Info for gregpeck7

Agree Maximus..

The big plus points are Asia still growing, wholesale growing.

UK has dragged things back, without that it would have been a revenue beat, but look at what we are exposed to in the UK, day after day of relentless negative reporting. The world is ending is basically the message, overall though they ended up with revenue down 1%.

Lots of exceptionals in the previous year made comparisons hard.

Now is the busy season and the current trading says they are ahead, ill take that.

And the last thing we need at Christmas is them not having inventory, they seem to have thought the same...

Margins maintained at 71% - that is huge.

They eyes are drawn to the cash position, but as we have discussed, that cash is not gone, it has been converted to inventory largely and some growth. Also look at the marketing spend, its up a lot to build the brand. Thats a tap that can easily be turned on and off. Without that increase they are basically in profit.

So for me its not a slam dunk but as Mulberry themselves say, its solid. And this share is cheap. Very cheap.

1 MM left at 270 then its 290... Maybe people are actually reading the results now! The more you read them, the more you can see they are rock solid.

1% down Revenue
71% margin maintained
Forward guidance sales are ahead of last year
Frozen energy prices at 2021 levels
Large inventory in place to ensure no supply chain issues
Wholesale growing strongly
Sweden new market opened
Bought out Australia to run by Mulberry not Franchise
Forward margins guided at 71%

This is a success.

Could have been better , but what retailer is currently smashing it? Arguably Burberry but its tough out there...

Cash was down, but its not because of losses, its because of investments and inventory. Thats a huge difference.

Just think how awful recent news flow was.. Particularly march to june.. Its a miracle in many ways they have only taken a 1% revenue hit.

Ukraine fallout at its peak, inflation peaking etc. Yet they raised prices and maintained the margin. I expect Jan will be their only sale of the year.

Fixing energy in 2021 for 3 years is huge as well. All being well, they come out of that deal in 2024 and prices are falling back significantly. That's a huge bullet dodged.

This is by mkt cap a tiddler 140m odd I think, that is teeny tiny. If anything the chance of someone taking advantage and taking them over is probably greater than ever now.

Burberry on record saying they want to "go British" and emphasise their "Britishness" as the Washington post say, best way to do that.. Buy Mulberry.

Total over reaction today. I think . Let these results sink in. Look at the numbers and they are actually doing well. Very reassuring to know that current trading is ahead, and last year was a string year...

I suspect we will be back over 250p very soon and calm heads will realise this was a decent update - macro environment considered.

Presentation on the website - which goes into things like taking back control of the franchise to have better control of the brand.

Looks like you are right on that Terry, they are throwing this around. Only 1 MM at 250. I think they were looking for stop losses etc with that drop and didnt find any.

When the dust settles here is how I see things

Cash is down - clearly
Inventory is up - massively - thats an investment
2/3 almost of their revenue is seasonal / around this time of year. Current trading is ahead of last year, which was a great year
They have bought our Australia, again, thats an investment
They have established an operation in Sweden - another investment
Energy fixed for 3 years at 2021 levels - thats smart.
Margins maintained at 71% - and guided to stay there - thats huge

Negatives

And revenue for the period is 1% down - thats not a lot at all..

You look at many retailers performance, improvements are coming through recently. Luxury market is forecast to keep growing, especially leather bags, Mulberry is right on point and trend here...

When you drill in, things look actually pretty good. Its tough for everyone at the moment...

And personally I think Burberry are gonna come knocking...

And they will have to pay to get their hands on this.

Current trading is where they make most of their cash and profit. Which is ahead.

This increase was predominantly driven by increased inventories of GBP16.7m, to support our strategy to focus on a direct-to-customer model, to mitigate cost increases, and to prepare for the important festive trading season. We are managing stock levels in light of the ongoing macro-economic uncertainty and cost increases.

Drill into the numbers and you can see they spent a load increasing inventories ( 1 example ) bought out Australia, opened in Sweden. These are all one offs. Considering the back drop it’s rock solid but take your point could be a tipsy turvy day.

Driven by investment though.

Outlook looks decent.

Current Trading

-- An improved trend in retail revenue for the eight weeks to 26 November 2022 compared to the same period last year, however there remains ongoing uncertainty in the economic and geopolitical environment

No discounting strategy working well. Margin maintained at 71 percent. Very slight fall in revenue driven by UK Asia growing. Despite covid. Lots of investment for growth going in.

Signs are good

Peer group all doing well / very well
No discounting over black friday / cyber monday
Margins on last update were improving and strong
Mulberry bags now a very "hot" item - see Kate Middleton using them all the time, that will be driving sales.
Very low PE here now
Burberry reported to be interested in taking them over
CAGR leather bag market forcast something like 7% growth YOY in luxury space, thats in the current climate!

So I dont see the results being poor personally.

Looks like it could blow up the last 90 mins here.

Agree. But when the rns states a material uplift to production on the back of the 20 metres of pay. Which was similar to the other ash wells. I think it’s not an outrageous prediction. I didn’t say anything until the well had been drilled and encountered pay. Anyway . Will let you lot fight amongst yourselves. This board is dead as far as I am concerned. And I know many share this view.

So how is that mis leading?

Every single ASH well had produced around 5,000 to 10,000 boepd on test initially that hit pay.

I thought UOG were producing around 1,200 boepd, so with a well flowing at around 4,000 that would have been correct....

Hardly - massively misleading

I doubt anyone here who is impartial would think talking about 1,800 boepd was getting overly carried away with things...

They have NEVER had an Ash well behave like this.

So onto your next point? Show me another mis leading statement I have allegedly made.

You seem quite obsessed with me though LOL.

And finally, you do realise someone copied my account, called it something like Gregpeck1 and ran round BB's... That was not me... So check your facts.

And PS, I am not "in hiding" unlike you, I cannot be bothered to sit here and listen to constant, relentless negativity. Have better things to do, and there are other channels to discuss UOG.

Please post the mis information.

Agree Dusterman. Popped back in and still see JONO here posting on a share he does not own, and not posting on any other share.. Not suspicious at all... What a loser...

The value on offer here for 9m market cap is crazy...

Burberry shares on absolute fire.. Only a matter of time before this follows. Added a few more today.

1 MM at 270p then its 290p

Going to move very soon.

Only a matter of time before this re rates, trying to add the odd 100 shares every week ATM.

Just relax and buy some more shares. I reckon there will be none available when results drop Wednesday. 500p on the table very soon.