Member Info for gregpeck7

Just chill while this gets set for another rise....

OK, so have been having a think tonight about what is going on at Genel at the moment, and here is my prediction... You heard it here first people....

I think we have - or are about to lose / take a serious hit on the gas assets..... Why?

1. Murat being shown the door... I think he has hung his hat on the gas negotiations and I suspect he has fooked them up.

2. Write down of the gas assets... Rather than being a pro active accountant, I think they know a hit is coming and are trying to prepare the market gently for the hit

3. Genels very subdued share price despite apparent strong fundamentals. The city is a dirty, dirty place, anyone who thinks otherwise needs to do some reading... Our "seller" maybe knows that something bad is coming and is offloading as a result... If this bad news lands it will be clear why there has been all of this selling despite GKP rising and the fundamentals supporting a materially higher SP.

4. New CEO now in place who had an operational background and is clear of the gas fook up when all is revealed.. He can then "move the company forward" without being tarnished by the failure of the Gas negotiations....

5. Murat asked to move aside - be an "adviser" and go quietly as a mark of respect as he has "served" the company well... Push before he would be shoved if we do lose, or lose a large part of the assets.....

6. Very muted reaction to maiden dividend.... Is this above why? Is the dividend finally being paid as a way to soften the blow when the gas failure news lands?

Purely speculation on my part... All we can do is look at the information we have and try and work out what is going on.... I cannot believe we are still looking at 200p and I am very very unhappy with the board and their seeming lack of ambition and or diversification outside the KRG....

But are we about to see a dramatic turn of events around the gas story akin to the (now infamous) Taq Taq CPR / performance collapse bombshell? Will lightning strike twice?

I can see this getting to 30p very quickly.. it’s a stupid price at the moment.

That we have ditched the overpaid muppet that was / is Murat. Let’s see if the genel boardroom shambles can pull itself together now and make some strategic investments while there are still some bargains out there and as my email go then today implores, not in the bleeding krg!

Have also questioned the decision to keep Murat as an advisor. He is certainly ‘special’ but I would charge him to listen to me and not vice versus, unless I wanted an expert lesson in cheque signing.

Will be early toasting his departure this evening.

Personally I see both of these rerating rapidly now... Next couple of months should be very kind to both.. ENQ possibly has more to catch up but I would be bullish on both providing excellent returns. Added full ISA allowance to ENQ today..

I 100% agree with all the sentiments, the equity price is very cheap here. Accelerated deleveraging mean that the equity should see a significant re rate.

Following me in lol

Theres my ISA in.... .Needed 2 trades as they would only let me have 50k chunks without going to the MM's... 100k more in the pot..

This is seriously undervalued IMO and if oil can hold over 70 the deleveraging process will be seriously accelerated which is not factored in . Also the surge in price for heavy crude could not be better :D

And this finally looks like it’s off the leash. I’m expecting a very good run up now as it’s firmly in breakout territory.

Could be delayed buys.. AAOG finally getting going again.. What a day....

Looks to be on the move finally so have bought in...

Just took another 150,000. Just need 20p to properly crack.

As expected a very strong start, the herd seem to be slowly arriving and liking what they see (no shock there) and the chance of a huge RNS on Monday.. I thought this would settle around 8 - 8.5p today but that may be conservative.....

Lets see!

No problems. I think we will end tomorrow with a price starting with a minimum of an 8 as more people wake up to the potential here. Watch the market cap though not the share price.

Well if you take a "high" valuation and they prove up 600 BCF og gas then according to CEO that would be 1.2 billion USD.. And thats just the gas...

It is very difficult to value this at the moment as they are proving up the acreage so you have to be pragmatic.

Based on what we KNOW NOW though, it is clearly worth a lot more than 20m quid.... As we learn more as BLOE progress their operations the valuation will become clearer.

Short term I think this will trade in the 10 - 20p range and establish a base towards the upper end of this range whilst they firm up production and the picture gains clarity. This is a genuine multi bagger though in the making. Very exciting play.

We still have news to come on:

Gas - this is totally not in the price at the moment (600 BCF down there potentially)
Side tracks / General field strategy
Pressure build up
Immediate follow up drill plans
Putting current wells onto production with existing infrastructure based on significantly higher output...

And thats just for starters

Remember at 70$ Brent they break even at 90 bopd!

GP

Yes I dont see how we can really see improved results as the testing facility cannot accommodate a higher throughput reliably or safely..

I am happy with that situation though! :D

Should close at the days high IMO. Breaking new ground here so nothing to stop this going up, and its the MCAP to watch, circa 17m. Which based on what we all KNOW, is far too cheap, so nothing to stop this running higher. They have an asset that they are going to exploit worth MUCH more than that. To be able to buy in here with the knowledge of the initial flow rates for only a 50% premium was / is the steal of the century.

That 35k trade @ 14:50 was what caused this to rocket mate, it was a buy for sure.

Or both... ? Its consolidated all week.. Time for the rise now .. Well done to the patient hands...