Member Info for Gotrader

Newgate Communications has appointed Nina Dowell, chief operating officer (COO), to the board, resulting in the most senior managerial roles, executive chair, chief executive and COO, being held by women. Nina is responsible for all administrative functions supporting the effectiveness of client-facing teams in the UK and is a member of the UK’s senior leadership team. She is responsible for finance, IT and facilities and talent acquisition. Deborah Saw, executive chair of Newgate, said: “We are very proud of the fact that the three most senior roles in our agency are held by women. Nina brings a wealth of experience, expertise and insight to the board. She is a key member of the team.”

Some big sells going through but share price not really moving. Unclear what holdings all the major shareholders have now. FT and other sites no longer show HH and Ruffers full holding. Same for Herald Investment Management. The shares must be going somewhere?

So their 2019 etimates!
They have slashed revenue for 2019 by 24m. Dowm from 194.8m to 169.9m
PBT by 40% to 20.4m down from 34m.
Net cash for 2019 is now 0.1m. Down from 18.02m. So the bank will be empty come the end of the year,
EPS cut by 40% for 2019.

Now there indicitive share valuation is 91-99p. Previously this was 53-120p? Seems pretty odd to increase their valuation from 74p when they have slashed their forecasts. Hmmmm.

Shorts above 0.5% down to 7.73%.
BlackRock Investment Management (UK) Limited reduced from 0.59 to 0.48% on 26th March.

Closed at 66.8p today. So IQE up on the day?

Posted a loss. Their fair value is not the same as AIM value. They are blaming a fall of AIM exchange overall for some of these losses. Gains on some shares are merely paying for losses on others.

'Turning first to Diurnal, its shares fell 78% over the year, resulting in a £33.1m reduction in the value of our holding, after its drug Chronocort did not meet the primary endpoint in a Phase 3 study in congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH). IP Group has invested a total of £19.4m into Diurnal to date and the company is currently valued at £19.7m on AIM. Despite the headline results, the company is optimistic that the drug remains approvable, given some very positive outcomes using other measures in the Phase 3 study, and that premium pricing is still possible. You can read more in the life sciences report below.'

'Excluding Diurnal, the Group's quoted portfolio fell 35% in 2018, against a 19% decline in the performance of the AIM index which has suffered this year from a number of well-documented factors. Including Diurnal, the Group's quoted portfolio fell 43% during 2018. Of the bigger quoted share price falls were Xeros Technology Group (£21.1m loss), Circassia (£14m loss) and Mirriad Advertising (£12.3m loss), in addition to a £12.4m loss for private company Cell Medica Limited. These falls more than offset fair value gains, the largest of which came from Garrison Technology (£15.2m gain), Ceres Power (£11.1m gain), Uniformity Labs (£9.0m gain) and Featurespace (£9.6m gain). '

Cash in the bank is down by over 100m. The share price just seems to be creeping lower and lower. Last year around £1-1.40. Now 88p. Market has not reacted very positively to these results.

The question is can they turn one of these investments into a major success. So far the biggest story is thenm losing millions in Diurnal which failed to release a drug?

Can anyone see a silver lining here?

Does feel like the SP has bottomed out now. Issue is do you believe they can match their growth figures. We were promised 40% growth and got next to none in 2018. However at these prices how much growth is expected? Someone on ADVFN had done some P/E numbers and came up with 27p value based on 2018 figures. Worry will be how H1 figures pan out. Coltrane still increasing. This still needs time for surplus stock issues to pan out. How did they account for surplus stock in 2018 accounts? When does this become revenue? Matching productions to demand seems an issue for IQE.

Coltrane increased their short on 20th March to 3.68%. 0.12% higher. Must of liked the results.

https://www.iqep.com/media/2019/03/ambitious-plans-for-the-world%E2%80%99s-first-compound-semiconductor-cluster-awarded-seed-funding/

'Each of the shortlisted projects from the first wave of UK Research and Innovation’s Strength in Places Fund has been awarded up to £50k in early-stage funding, which will allow applicants to develop full-stage bids. Teams behind these projects will then submit these bids to UK Research and Innovation in late 2019, with four to eight of the strongest set to receive between £10m and £50m each to carry out projects designed to drive substantial economic growth.'

So they could get 10-50m in cash from the government?

In terms of SP. The short website was not updated on Friday. It looks like 2 brokers have reduced SP target. 70p and 120p. Debt is not a huge issue right now as they have the credit facility. I don't know how much funds they need to set up the current facilities over next 12-24 month. If they can match their prfot forcares some debt should be acceptable if they are making money.

Is current SP fall due to new shorts under 0.5% or funds just getting out. Sadly we can't see those below 0.5%. I think the major shareholder here is likely still buying. They were happily buying at prices 10-15p above this. Maybe even arranged?

This is the issue with IQE. It's become a day trading share. You buy at the low points and sell at 20p higher before the next fall. Could be H2 before we see some real pressure on price here.

https://www.iqep.com/media/2019/03/ambitious-plans-for-the-world%E2%80%99s-first-compound-semiconductor-cluster-awarded-seed-funding/

'Each of the shortlisted projects from the first wave of UK Research and Innovation’s Strength in Places Fund has been awarded up to £50k in early-stage funding, which will allow applicants to develop full-stage bids. Teams behind these projects will then submit these bids to UK Research and Innovation in late 2019, with four to eight of the strongest set to receive between £10m and £50m each to carry out projects designed to drive substantial economic growth.'

So they could get 10-50m in cash from the government?

In terms of SP. The short website was not updated on Friday. It looks like 2 brokers have reduced SP target. 70p and 120p. Debt is not a huge issue right now as they have the credit facility. I don't know how much funds they need to set up the current facilities over next 12-24 month. If they can match their prfot forcares some debt should be acceptable if they are making money.

Is current SP fall due to new shorts under 0.5% or funds just getting out. Sadly we can't see those below 0.5%. I think the major shareholder here is likely still buying. They were happily buying at prices 10-15p above this. Maybe even arranged?

This is the issue with IQE. It's become a day trading share. You buy at the low points and sell at 20p higher before the next fall. Could be H2 before we see some real pressure on price here.

Deutsche Bank have reduced target from 80p to 70p. Not unsurprising. These broker rating have been falling for a while now. No news on shorts last 2 days. See what if any holding RNS arrive. Selling at 90p+ was a good move. We knew the results were poor. Your buying back in at broker rating price. Holding above 70p for now and volumes greatly reduced today.

UT price was 73.95p, So down 11% or so on day. Brutal but not unexpected. News for 2019 needed to be much more upbeat.

There is 1.7m volume on Nexexchange. Which is IQE secondary market.
HL shows trade for day at 8.23m. So at least 10m volume for the day.

A lot of these trades are automated trades. Meaning funds are buying/selling batches of shares each minute at small volumes. This is why you get 4 trades at one time stamp.

So this is why you have a lot of trades for 200-3000+ shares. Wonder how many are actually from private investors? This is my issue with IQE. Always someone else selling. Will Oppenheimer reach 20% soon? They need another 7.7m shares for 19%.

Worth reading some of those IQE news articles on here. Appears Peel Hunt has reduced it's targets and IQE suggesting.

'* Core profit falls below its forecast in January
* Sees weak profit and revenues in H1 2019
* 2019 forecast "prudently soft" - Peel Hunt analysts
* Shares down 9 pct (Adds details on outlook, background)'

Hmmm that does not sound so good.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/216840/iqe-slides-as-2018-earnings-miss-forecasts-despite-previous-downgrade-216840.html

EBIDTA 0.9M lower than they predicted in January.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/will-5g-give-iqe-new-lease-life-ii507922

Worth reading around.

Got a bit carried away. Meant COO.

This is hardly news. We knew the results were going to be poor. They do seem to of had a few issues during 2018. Including the major impact of Apple's reduced demand. Some facilities not operating 24/7 too. Lot of waste in places.

I personally think 2019 should easily improve on these figures. The question is can they learn from their mistakes? Hopefully new CEO will help here. Will he be buying any shares soon?

Oppenheimer must know what it is doing buying in heavily at 80-90p+. They must see something here. The shorters also jumped in at 90P+. The share is being kept in check by the market.

The research I posted a few months back gave a value of 74p. Which is where the share is now.

Do they still expect to meet 2019 targets?

Results were done as a GNW instead of an RNS. Seems to be why LSE don't have them albeit the 2 holdings yesterday were not done as RNS either.

If you got in at 69p you would seem to of got the bottom price here. Lots of numbers to sift through here. Cash down to 20m too. New 35m loan facility secured. So it looks like further investment still required.

After adjustments for taxation profits of 1.189m, Taxation wiped out 13m of profits.

The question is how much of their adjustments to facilities worldwide impact the business going forward.

They talk about 10 tools at Newport facility with suggestion they have room for 100 tools. Is this site only at 10% still?

' Since taking on the lease of the building as an empty shell, IQE has
completed the first phase of construction of cleanrooms and services for
up to 20 MOCVD tools, of which, the first 10 tools have been installed
and are in various stages of commissioning and qualification. '

'When fully occupied, the Newport facility will have the capacity to
house up to 100 high-volume production tools comprising a mixture of
platforms (MOCVD and MBE). To put this into perspective, prior to the
start of the current expansion plan, the Group operated around 100
legacy tools across its entire global facilities, so the expansion when
completed will create almost three times the manufacturing capacity . '

So it looks like once the Newport facility is finished it will represent a large share of their production. So a move from specialist to mass producer. How much more needs to be spent on Newport to bring it fully into production? They have already burned a lot of the cash call last year. What are the rates on this loan facility? Hopefully 3-4% or below.

A lot of patience is required here but hopefully 2019 wil avoid more hiccups. Brexit could be a big one if we drop out of EU with no deal.

So how is 2019 really going based on this info?

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/fogchain-appoints-newgate-communications-as-its-pr-adviser-2019-03-19

Fogchain appointed Newgate as PR advisor. Small company but a new client none the less. They are based in Canada.

Major shareholders website updated.
For some reason T Rowe Price only showing 9.22%, I suspect this is an error given RNS. Unless they are splitting the funds.

All other funds have reduced by 0.5m-2m shares. This data is nearly 20 days old as updated on 29/02/2019 but only appeared today.

Actually an overall decrease from 15.25 to 15.20%. They appear to have loaned out more shares.

However OppenheimerFunds are over 18% now. They have bought 0.86% of shares. 140m shares they have now.

PR Weekly showing Newgate Communications have hired Dan Clay from WPP. He has been on there website since end of January. Not sure why some PR news is so slow to come out. PR timing.

Also not had an RNS from Porta for 3 months now. No news is good news?

Staff page up to 93 now. Could be part of the UK research arm or new clients

They were financial PR for Digitalbox IPO. Small fry but least they are still getting them.

Odey Asset Management has increased by 0.14% on 11/03/2019.

Meanwhile T Rowe Price have taken back 0.78% of loaned shares and reduced by 0.04% by their overall holdings.

What we might be seeing here is a major shareholder squeezing the shorts. With existing shorts raising their stakes to push down the SP? Could also be raising shorts just before results on both fronts.