Member Info for gordon1237

DP. That's true but unlikely after about 1pm our time which is around close of play India time.

Jobs a goodun. More please.

Syn have a sales arrangement in place for gas and condensate. They will presumably still be selling small quantities from C77.

Fair enough Jack. Good luck to us all.

Nice one Hedge. Lol

Pj. 0.2 will do me very well. 0.27 would be double my average. My feeling now is that I may need to wait for production towards the end of the year.

Your point about the survey being quite old is correct. However that was a detailed 3D seismic survey and I am sure if they thought a new survey would lead to an increase in the resource they would have done it. They do know that there is a contingent resource of 930 BCF including the 206 bcf but a contingent resource by definition one that is not commercially recoverable. Again if there was a possibility of it being recovered they would be shouting about it.ft

Jack. For crying out loud. It's not my estimate of profit. It's the COMPANEY'S. Do you really think if their was any possibility of it being massively greater they wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops? After all it's hardly in their interests to downplay the value of their main asset. If it was really worth billions don't you think they could have sold 50% for a damn sight more than 10 or 20 million ( depending on how you look at it). There would have been a real bidding war and the sp would have gone through the roof.

Yes when Selan merge with Antelopus they will be part of a much bigger company but 100 million is still a significant amount to add to their portfolio of projects. By you reasoning you could say why would Antelopus bother with Selan when the whole company is only worth about the same as the mere 100 million as you describe it.

I say again, that 100 million is huge to Syn and is equivalent to a share price oh about 0.75p. Whether that is ever achieved is dependent on the targeted flow rates being achieved and if they are, the market reacting accordingly.

Jack. Any talk of extending well life etc is irrelevant. You can't get out more gas and condensate than is actually there. The 10 well model is from a presentation which was on the website in August 2023, so fairly recent. Those 10 wells target 63 bcf out of the total resource of 206 bcf. So the 30+ wells should recover the whole resource which is why I multiplied the 58 million by 3 and a bit to get a ball park figure of 200 million.

As Espen suggests Selan may be able to do things a bit more efficiently which may push profits up a bit but I wouldn't think hugely so.

As for Selan not being interested in a mere 100 million profit, of course they are much bigger than us but not massively. Their market cap is about £100 million so that amount of profit is certainly significant to them. Atb.

That 100 million usd is £79 million With 10.6 billion shares that gives an sp of 0.75 pence. That's all based on achieving the base case of 4 mmscfd for horizontal wells. Now further complicated by including vertical wells with a target of 2 mmscfd. There was an upper case with a target of 6 mmscfd. If this were to be achieved profits could be further enhanced.

All of the above depends on two things. The predicted flow rates being achieved and the market recognising the potential. Future value of the ccs project may wel turn out to be huge but it's impossible to value in the present day. Part of the value will be realised if they manage to farm out 25% as hoped for.

Hi Jack. Sorry but that makes no sense.

The figures I quoted are not my own but the company's . They are not gross revenues but estimated profit after drilling and other costs have been accounted for. These are discounted to what they are worth in the pressent day. That's known as NPV or net present value. The wells certainly won't have a lifespan of 20 years as the have said that the production decline rate will be around 30%. That means that after 2 years production will be roughly halved and after 4 years it will be about a quarter. Of course new wells will be coming on stream to compensate for the decline of the old ones.

The point I was making was that even using more realistic numbers and assuming that flow rate targets are met, SYN'S share of the potential future profits are at least 100 million usd, making a mockery of the current market cap. Atb.

PJ. A few too many noughts there I'm afraid. The revised 10 well model from last year was 58 million usd. The full field development could be 30+ wells. So maybe up to 200 million for the whole field with Syn's share half that. Still a decent amount.

I admire you're optimism pj. I suppose your first number is not totally inconceivable a few years hence. As for the rest. Good luck.

Pj. Whatever you're on, can I have some please. Atb.

Hope so guys. Atb.

Now at the same price as at the beginning of May.

Will it mean something this time ? Where will we be this time next week ?

DP. No it's not only Sausage. I find it bloody infuriating. I have said before that if Roland had stuck to his original 3 to 6 months for approval we would only now be saying, another month at most. Can't imagine the flack he will get if he comes back from India without approval. Surely not.

JPP. On the face of it, that makes perfect sense.

However, if that was really the case, why on earth would they say it was imminent more than two weeks before he goes ? Beggars belief.

Agreed Sprint. It would be far more honest to say they had no way of knowing how long it would take. BTW it's now 141 days since the jv rns.

Roland's latest statement already doesn't make sense. I don't think anyone would say 13 days and counting could be regarded as imminent. Doubt anybody is surprised though.