Member Info for gordon1237

Should add that " 2P contingent resource" seems to have gone from the website.

" Our website states that in 2016 we wrote back the then 2P resources to 2C given that at that time we did not have line of sight over sales of product with GSPC thwarting all attempts.
For more details, I refer you to an extract from our June 2016 Quarterly Report below in italics – note this is for the then 45% interest "
He then gives the resources table, which shows the 2P amount of 93bcf being reduced to zero anf added to the 2C amount of 324 to make 417.
He goes on
" Grossing the 417 BCF of 2C resource at June 2016 from 45% to 100% results in 927BCF and 60.9 mmbbl condensate.
To sum up, currently we do not have 2P resources. Everything is in the contingent category. All or part of the 2C resource could be elevated to 2P but requires further activities and confirmations.
Our program at the moment is geared towards framing the project value which will ultimately will be based on what the reservoir can deliver, the volumes that can be accessed and the sales price attainable."
I think that is stating pretty clearly that they wont know exactly how much will be recoverable until they have done the refrac, and maybe one new well. All in all pretty encouraging.
For completness, I give my reply.
" Thank you for your quick response Mr Saloman. It does indeed clarify things a bit. It looks very much as if you will only be able to give a meaningful 2P figure once the all important refrac of 77h takes place. Don't think it is too strong to describe that as the s**t or bust moment.
Best regards
Gordon "

In January, I posted the following, about this statement on the website.
" 1 TCF of contingent 2P gas resources."
" You cant have a 2P resource which is contingent.
2P means proven and probable, whereas contingent means an amount that is known to be there but not commercially recoverable.
They previously gave the 2P resource as 93 bcf, which is still a lot. It maybe that with the increase in prices it will be considerably greater than that. "
That 93 bcf was for 45%,which would be around 200 bcf for 100%, and then reduced again by whatever they give up to a jv.
Anyway, thought I'd email to see what they had to say, not really expecting much. To my surprise I received a reply direct from Joe, which I'll post in a bit.

They dont know Gideons. 77h originally had a rate of around 1mmscfd, but that declined to less than 10 % of that when shut in, 3 years ago. They are hoping the pressure build up will increase it again.
The real hope is that the refrac this quarter will increase rates by 3 to 5 times, but they wont know if it works until they try it. Gla.

You could always read a few rns's, or even easier the news section on this site. Stb.

Yes Steven that quote by Roland is the key to the whole thing. Atb.

Of course, for every sell there is a buy, or more likely for a big sell, multiple buys.

As long as the pressure doesn't blow the bloody doors off. Gla.
https://youtu.be/7_PX1cVuaVA

Thanks Steven. I am not sure I am qualified to be a financial advisor but I will say what I think. Atb.

my girlfriend's knickers. Lol.

Of course Jasper, very well articulated. Obviously, too many variables for exact numbers.
Personally, wouldn't be totally amazed if they cashed out almost completely and used the funds fir the other stuff that floats Roland's boat. In that scenario we should still do very well. Atb. Gla.

0.257 to buy. Great stuff. Gla.

Yes great post by Jasper as always. Dont forget his important proviso at the end about finance. We will be giving up at least 50% to a jv. That could be mitigated somewhat if the flow rates are better than expected.
Before anyone says I am being negative or deramping, it is no such thing. We've got to get finance from somewhere. I think most of us would be over the moon with 1 to 1.5p this year. Gla.

0.2635 to buy on Barclays.

That's surprising. I use Barclays. Atb.

Good stuff. Go Oilex. Gla.

Dont know if they have only just showed up, but there are now about 50 million grey trades. Ad you say, there's always tomorrow. Gla.

Hi Jasper. Thanks for that. If you literally mean this time last year, that would be just before the big news broke that Oilex were trying to acquire 100 %. At that time the sp was around 0.10p and the market cap about £5 million. So it's more than doubled from when we knew nothing about getting 100%. Anyway, let's wait and see, and hope you right. Atb. Gla.

Hope so. Guess seeing is believing. Gla.

Hi Jasper. Quite right about the churning of the placement. Can't understand why people keep saying it's nearly finished.Maybe, maybe not. Also you'd think some of the participants might want to demonstrate a vote of confidence by hanging on to some or even most. Mind you we do know from previous placings that Republic have sold back down to somewhere near previous levels
Just remembered something, didn't they say at one point that it would be cyclic production between the two wells? Suppose it's academic really, if they are going to refrac 77h by end March
Ate you really expecting just turning the taps on to get us to 0.48, or did I misunderstand you? Atb.