RE: RE REFRAC21 Jun 2022 06:58
Hi Jack. I have been reasobably optimistic for some time, otherwise I wouldn't have reinvested a year ago. However that optimism is tempered by the knowledge that everything is dependent on the refrac. Yes a lot of research had gone into it and we have been told they think it has a 75% chance of success. Which is great and what we all hope for. It does however mean there is a one in four chance of failure. Not that likely but not impossible. Where has Roland said anything about a new low pressure system? He said the operators were addressing the problems with the current system which were hollding the rates down. It has accommodated much higher rates in the past, so it shouldn't be that difficult, you'd think.
Even with the current high gas prices, the best flow rates they can hope for, pre refrac, will still be loss making. That would still be the case even with the 0.5 to 1.0 mmscfd they said they were hoping for on production restart. These sort of rates make a welcome contribution to reducing the cash burn but are not enough for a commercial venture. If they were, we can be certain the company would be stressing thr fact that whatever happens the Cambay project will be profitable. They are hoping for 2 mmscfd from a successful refrac and 3 to 5 mmscfd from the new wells if they go ahead. The upper end of that would be a jackpot for the company and us. Here's to a great outcome. Not too long to wait now. Atb.