Member Info for Gord_1

Happy Days for Tullow I hope. I think the T/O was a smokescreen to force a positive Tax outcome for their major partner Tullow .....because if it was negative then it would have an impact on their business too.....and if Kenya is good, then I think it would be a great opportunity for Tullow and KOS .....payback so speaking. ....imo

Hi All,

They release one announcement on 9th Dec stating a Capex budget of $23M will be spent on drilling 4 new wells , which is subject to securing additional $10M funds from the bank, then only 4 days later they announce spending a further $23M subject again to approvals from the bank. This would mean going to the bank and asking for $33M total i guess . TBH I'm not sure whats going on now with their strategy for next year ...Any thoughts on this ?

Fogthemogg - That nicely sums it up and puts more prospective on this. The capital performance ( excluding dividends) is far greater in the US markets by a long shot. FTSE company dividends don't make up for that gap.

KOS need us more than we need them . I think this is an opportunistic approach based on the fact I believe were so under valued due to the way the FTSE system operates and governed. Incredibly the FTSE 100 has only gained 12% in the last 5 years, and it is possibly the worst performing market out of the majors. Maybe that;s the reason why so many companies are throwing in the towel and giving up on the FTSE.

As for COS, their MC is three times more than Tullow. So should this be the case knowing how badly the FTSE performs ?

Just to look at the companies side:

Production = Comparable ( 62K v 65K per day)

P2 Resources = Tullow 200 v KOS 270

Assets = Tullow $2.5B v KOS $4B (Property/Equipment )

Cash in Bank- Tullow ~ $300M KOS - $100M

Non-Current Debt = Tullow $1.4B KOS $2.7B

With the Kenya decision around the corner , the short term debt paid off (or renegotiated) together with the opportunistic illegal Tax demands thrown out, Tullow I feel would be in a much better position than KOS. I appreciate that reducing debt over the past few years has taken its toll on investment, hence SP reduction, however with it previously out of control, its now reigned in to a much better level by sweating the assets. Also note that production is fairly comparable despite KOS having more plant/equipment assets. Its no use having all these additional assets if they are not producing the goods imo. As a combined company I'm not sure how well this will go, but were so under-priced today its a joke. Maybe a turning point for Tullow and good opportunity for us all if the system allows.

I was doing a bit of research into this company as I could not understand why the SP is sow low.

10 years ago it was ~400p with net debt of $3.2 B / 1B shares

6 years ago it was ~200p with net debt of $4.7 B/ 1.4B shares

Today it is anticipates net debt of $ 1.4B for the end of FY. ( Reduction of 3.3B in the last few years) .......and the SP is now 25p ?

Production hasn't changed much over this period to warrant such a big drop. (from 400p to 25p ) and the share size has not increased that much either ( 1B - 1.4B)

Any thoughts on this ? as it appears to be a bargain basement T/O due to how crxp the FTSE is these days...imo

So they raised $7.5M a few months back. taking into account opex for drilling the should have a fair chunk of this left to last a few months to allow for asset backed funding discussions. Is this the current position ? ...If so all looks good.

From 2020 - Today :The ii's % of shares ownership was 80% reducing to now 54% (46% now in pi''s hands). I suspect the ii's who sold out were tree shaken ...like what has happened recently..imo. During the same period the directors interests went from 24% to 49% today. I'm not sure where FIL sit..are they connected or not. These are approx figures

What does this tell us...thoughts ?

.

With the Buy Backs 's still in progress, and the directors accumulation behind the scenes at a SP level well under market value, and already holding approx 49% .....is a buy out looming ? Could get very interesting soon ?

Hi G_G_G - Regarding BB's, every time they purchase daily and put the shares into treasury, the overall number of shares with voting rights is reduced also daily. With the BB's and directors purchases ( via kestrel etc), collectively the total percentage of directors having an interest has now reached 49% according to the last published shareholder figures ( could be more or less but I have seen no TR1's related to them recently) This group of majority shareholders could make overtures to private equity firms or the competition, with the collective objective of selling the entire company for a huge profit. Just a thought .

Any thoughts on the latest ii holdings ? Due to BB's, I would have expected TR1's to come through for fund(s) associated with the directors as they reached the reporting thresholds. ?

Not happy today tbh........lost trust in the management as this type of funding has proved a disaster for a lot of companies.

I think the debts were rising and after the default last year and the transition of revenues away from China, more needs to be done on cost control. I think a double hit when the results come out perhaps ?

Negative I think...interesting that the market seemed to know before the announcement considering the low buying volume today v sells ?

from august rns:

"the acquisition of the beisa projects is supported by the company's major shareholder, dubai based auo commercial brokerage llc ('auo'), and director mr. *****on van der burgh.

· the company is pleased to confirm that it is negotiating a non-dilutive debt facility with auo and several other parties, that it proposes to utilise to further fund its working capital requirements, accelerate the development of its henkries uranium project and further assist with its growth strategy in south africa."

so i'm assuming this major shareholder has a major vested interest in providing the funding for this multi-billion pound venture...?

You mean Neo of course :-)

So in May JA said that the "contracted" rig would be available in October and that :

"The Company still intends to drill the NJOM-3 well with Borr this year and is working with Borr on the timing in light of the situation with BW Energy. The Company will update investors when this process is finalised."

However the rig has been contracted to other's in 2024 and for 2025 apparently.

And as JA has stated he will not release information until plans are concrete, thus I suspect we will have a concrete announcement soon as he only has 3 weeks left to drill ? It clearly states he intends to drill this year and will make an announcement when timings are finalised.

How did you know ? He stated it would be in an official RNS at the time of a placement and in an updated RNS. I haven't seen anything confirming it wouldn't be?

Yes ..he did say that he would not release an update until he had "concrete" plans. So i'm expecting a firm commitment to the market. It will be interesting to hear what wording is used next ;-)

Its getting confusing now,,,, JA stated just before a placement for funds that they had a contract for this rig which would drill in 24. According to this announcement, the rig was in contract with BW energy until Feb 25 and is now concluded a contract with someone else until June 25.

DB - That's a great opportunity. This market is strange in a sense that other gold etc exploration companies are getting a lot of attention, where something like this ( assets + proven resource to actually go into production) and the SP declines. Building a mine from scratch is a massive Capex outlay thus having it all in place is a huge bonus. I appreciate that there will be production start up costs, opex to consider, however doing such deals with such a low MC should have attracted more attention. GLA