Member Info for Gopnik

Russia is a net exporter, World's 4th largest exporter. China is the world's largest net exporter by far. Net exporters are naturally more self sufficient. They consume less than they export. Goods from Europe can easily be replaced with goods from China, especially since Europe has now decided it will buy more expensive Oil and Gas which will make its manufacturing base more uncompetitive. Russia will weather this story just fine despite the west trying to convince everyone that it's being destroyed by the Ghost of Kiev.

Tanker premiums hurt the importer just as much as the exporter. At the end of the day there isn't any natural resources Russia needs to import and it can get any manufactured goods it needs from China. Together with its arms manufacturing capabilities it's probably the most self reliant country in the world outside the US.

Anyone who believes sanctioning oil is going to have any impact on Russia is a fantasist.

Scenario 1:
Europe stops buying Russian oil.
Therefore Europe needs to outbid China for Oil from Saudi, Qatar, Brazil.
If China gets outbid then they just buy the Russian oil.
Russia gets paid.

Scenario 2:
Russian oil selling at a 10% discount due to sanctions.
China/India buy Russian oil and resell it on the international market and pocket the 10%.
Strengthens trade relations between Russia & Rus friendly states and strengthens Russias friends financially.
Russia and her allies get paid.

Scenario 3 (Unlikely):
No-one buys Russian oil.
Russia has excess oil so floods the domestic market with oil that costs next to nothing.
Every Russian and Russian business essentially gets a huge tax cut.
Good for Russian economy.

@ Matchu

Judging by his Tweets he appears to be a Bush/Clinton war mongering type. Bet my life on it he supported the Iraq war back in the day. No thanks. John Mearsheimer is probably the best geopolitical analysist on the Russia/China issue and his views are all free to listen to on the internet.

@CWWX

Ilya Kiva, ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada on his Telegram channel.

Zelensky and his inner circle apparently have been given British citizenship. I would presume the west is acknowledging that the government in Ukraine has lost control. Step closer to the end.

Funny that the Guardian spent years trying to convince me that Erdogan was a mad jihadist dictator and he's now one of the few trying to end this through negotiations.

Completely agree. The only way I can describe the last 6 years in US politics from an outside perspective is many people in power have been doing things they should not have been doing and they didn't trust Trump to play along and not throw them in prison.

Thanks for the info.

Looks to me like Russia is being very honest and fair regarding foreign holders.

If this is such a good price then surely we would see insider buying? Or are not all director deals disclosed?

Same plays as me.

Biggest conflict plays for me are Polymetal, JRS, Evraz then POG. I have a small amount of ADRs too but they were frozen a month back.

Well it's only a £42m market cap. Never much discussion on funds this small.

Could JPM theoretically substantially increase the fees of the trust?

@Ninjadude

If that's true then why are they measuring Rosneft allocation fairly?

If they sell Gazprom to buy Kazatomprom I'm out. The only reason I bought this was to get exposure to the sanctioned companies. I can buy Kazakh companies without buying a managed trust.

The Trust is a UK financial asset.

Anyone have any idea what the Enterprise value is?

Different website have different numbers..

What a load of nonsense. Just like when they said Saddam has WMDs. Then there was the false flag chemical attack in Syria that was clearly bull****. America is the empire of lies.

My only concern that this price is if the Yanks create a false flag to try and get Nato troops on the ground. Much like the WMDs that were non existing in Iraq and the Chemical weapons attack in Syria that never happened. That would see this go to 80p. If that doesn't happen then I'm quite confident.

I tend to agree that it's unlikely they would target an 'out of the way' mine. But I bought at 1.20 and sold at 1.60. It's just not as cheap as Poly but I tend to think at 1.60 people are not pricing the risk that they may not be able to export through the blacksea or from a Russian controlled area for a long time.

6 hours ago they all started reporting the same theme. False flag definitely on the table.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kJo5741tck
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2k-GMAnN0Ek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvRpntmUIxs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3vYSEAhsMg