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Hi Ed, I’ve actually sold a few myself but that’s to do with me changing my risk profile rather than anything else, as retirement has now kicked in! The number of shares I had previously would have been life changing in a good or bad way and especially after the Sirius debacle I opted for a bit more safety. Still got 700k though so still got a heavy interest here.
https://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=sv&u=https://www.nsd.se/nyheter/utan-jokkmokk-stannar-sverige-nm5191479.aspx&prev=search
At the end of the half-year, the population figure is now below 5,000 inhabitants - precisely 4,966 inhabitants. Since the turn of the millennium, the municipality has lost more than a thousand inhabitants.
Consequently, Bernhardsson is intensely committed to broadening business. The municipality needs more legs to stand on to break the downward trend.
This is also the reason why he and the others in the municipal management take the fight for mining in Kallak, which is usually referred to as Europe's largest unbroken iron ore deposit.
Bernhardsson's demands for the red-green government are clear.
“It's a sharp location for the municipality! Grant a processing license for Kallak now! ”, The municipal council urges.
He points out that a mine in Kallak would create hundreds of jobs and new development opportunities for Jokkmokk.
The government should not hesitate.
Such a decision is fully in line with Sweden's national mineral strategy, which speaks of developing Sweden as a mining nation.
There will also be no untouched nature in Jokkmokk if the government gives green light to Kallak. The mining establishment affects less than one per thousand of Jokkmokk's municipality.
Remember that Jokkmokk is Sweden's second largest municipality to the surface. It is bigger than Skåne, Halland and Blekinge - together!
Thus, there is room for both mountain tourism, forestry, reindeer husbandry and mining activities in the municipality. One need not be set against the other.
Fed didn't lower interest rates as much as the market expected...Trump's ramped up the trade war with China, and as far as the UK is concerned the prospect of a no-deal Brexit is clobbering sterling. Apart from that, all is fine!
Eric, I'll come clean. Most of the big sales today were mine. The reason? I've just decided to retire and need to adjust my portfolio to be a little more risk averse - I sold BEM and bought more gold! I am still as optimistic about our chances of getting the Kallak concession but I can't afford as much risk, at one stage I had 2m shares. I am selling at a bit of a loss but in the knowledge that a 'yes' will still give me a big profit. Hedging, if you like.
It just goes to show that a) one individual can move the market, and b) share price movements do not mean that somebody is 'in the know' or that there is a leak or anything. Only sentiment has moved this one way or another in the last year, nothing has really changed.
As for the stock, my niche is these binary cases. Comes earlier from AFE and now has full focus on BEO and ECO Atlantic. It can be fairly quickly stated that the market does not price> 50% probability for an approved BK. The value of the share becomes a simple function of the probability of either outcome and the value at either outcome. No advanced mathematics but it is, of course, dependent on what value you think the share has on a possible yes to BK. Which value you put into a possible no is less important. This is assuming that decisions are made in the near future, otherwise the time aspect of the value of the share must be taken into account.
As regards the value of the share in the event of a no, I believe that the large value in that case is the option to appeal and BEO's chance to appeal is directly linked to whether there are objective arguments against a mine in the event of a possible no.
I have followed the issue of Kallak in local media since 2010 and what I note is that the picture in the local press has always been that this is a somewhat uncertain project that can last for a few years but which is not necessarily a deposit that stands out from the crowd. Having now familiarized myself with the case a little bit closer, I understand that this is something that will generate mining for at least 25 years and probably this is just as big if not larger than LKAB's deposits. I think it's a pity that not that picture is given in local media
For those who want to read more on the issue, I recommend above all this letter which in a good way describes the questions an officer wrestles with in a question like this:
https://www.lansstyrelsen.se/download/18.4df86bcd164893b7cd956e80/1537457804091/%C3%96kad%20samverkan%20mellan%20renn%C3%A4ring%20och%20gruvn%C3%A4ring.PDF
The most important thing I take from this report is that it is clear that the County Administrative Board is tasked with representing the Sami and in that light it might not be so strange that they said no to mining in Kallak. For me it was new. On page 33 it says:
"This also has consequences for the county administrative boards' task of monitoring the reindeer husbandry as a public interest ..."
"The Sami villages feel a lack of trust and distrust of the authorities that represent the interests of reindeer husbandry"
I have also read through the referral material and the most important thing I take with me from it is the text below which clearly shows that if the government would be sure that no on this issue it would not have taken this long. Page 62: "In view of the fact that the County Administrative Board of Västerbotten County requested a clarification, it should be pointed out that when an authority at an early stage finds that an application for a measure will not be granted and thus will not affect the Sami land use, it should be obvious that the authority does not need to consult a Sami representative ”
https://www.regeringen.se/49e9b9/contentassets/35e06037e8e345c8a83c169f0eac9c97/utkast-till-lagradsremiss-en-konsultationsordning-i-fragor-som-ror-det-samiska-folket.pdf
Something else I bring with me after going through the great material is that the fact that the Ministry of Industry is now behaving like a mussel I interpret as that de facto decision is made before the summer but it is an embargo on publishing when you wait for a better opportunity to publish this. I do not think that you wanted to release such a decision before Almedalen and not before the action from mining opponents that takes place here during the month of July. That a decision is actually related, which for me is within 2 months, is my interpretation of all information.
Post by a BEM newbie in Sweden, thought it was interesting enough to share, though I know some of you follow Avanza...
I will start by saying that I am not an expert on mines. I can do a lot about oil and one might think there would be similarities, but there are great differences between oil and the mining industry. The biggest difference, I would say, is the genuine uncertainty in the question of how large a deposit is in the mining industry compared to the oil industry. Within oil, one can after 10 drilled holes be quite sure of how large the deposit, which does not apply to an ore deposit.
I have now dug myself down on the issue of Kallak from an administrator's perspective. After plowing through a lot of material, my assessment is that it is difficult to find a factual argument against the mine.
The main argument earlier has been that reindeer husbandry is impossible with a mine. I feel that the main argument has now shifted to mining opponents nowadays pressing on environmental aspects rather than reindeer husbandry per se. This also emerges after listening to the latest SR report where mining opponents highlight environmental consequences as the first argument against the mine https://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=1637&artikel=7259951
The issue of reindeer herding impossible with a mine is difficult to argue for on factual grounds, I believe. Here is the best map to see Sami villages (click on Jåhkågasska on the right side) https://www.sametinget.se/underlag There you can see that reindeer can pass on the lake or south of the lake even if Kallak Södra becomes current. It can also be possible with a bridge across the road north of Kallak. It may be a reason why mining moths have changed focus, whether it is so or if I just imagine.
However, I have a full understanding of the Sami's actions. It may be necessary to be Norrbottning to understand it and it has to do with the experience of hydro power expansion where this did not leave so much left to the Sami or to Norrbotten besides the jobs that hydropower has generated and still generate. Within Norrbotten, there is a certain bitterness caused by this, since one may see that some of the revenue would stay in the county.
Then I can also understand the Sami's actions because it is no stranger than if it should be built on a common at one's house, which would obscure one's sea or sea view. Then you try by all means to find reasons for delaying this building even if you know that it cannot be prevented. It may be to find protected beetles or plants or the like. Such cases are not unusual.
Regarding public opinion, it can be said that even though there are residents of Jokkmokk who are opposed to the mine so if you ask individuals in Gällivare or Kiruna, it is hardly possible to find any mine opponent since almost all jobs are dependent on the mining operations in these places.
JOKKMOKK Inlandsbanan is ready for ore train from Kallak. "If the mining operation starts, we can offer transport," says Peter Ekholm, CEO.
He believes that it is such a long time between a decision to open a mine that there is a need for freight trains that the Inlandsbanan has time to prepare for it.
- At the same time, there are several stakeholders and we have our plans for renovation, says Peter Ekholm.
He notes that the Inlandsbanan does not have the standard needed for freight traffic.
- We cannot integrate with the rest of the railway system. This makes it difficult to attract the big carriers. There we see a great need to achieve a Swedish minimum level.
Peter Ekholm is optimistic and refers to the fact that intensive lobbying is ongoing towards the state in order to receive money.
- We already said in May that we intend to equip the track and this will be based on the needs we see. It can be about Kallak. Should there be an establishment there, it is well known that the transports would go by rail.
He explains that the company behind the mining plans in Kallak updates the managers on the Inlandsbanan about what is happening.
- So if they come forward in the plans then we can start the renovation in good time.
The Inlandsbanan, which already exists, need not have a costly and time-consuming planning process, which is required for new railways.
- We also do not need to interrupt traffic in the track, because we do not have any. So it will be cost-effective for us. And we all have permits, says Peter Ekholm.
https://www.norrbottensaffarer.se/nyheter/inlandsbanan-redo-for-kallak-nm4659008.aspx
There also looks like there was a flash crash in Sweden this morning down to 7p, coincidentally our ask price! Recovering now to 7.8p. Again something that normally only happens when news is imminent, though in this case I'm wondering if they've just flooded Sweden with UK shares.
Something that's always bothered me a little about BEM...the ability to buy and sell when you want to. Something's changed over the last couple of days. At the beginning of the week I was not able to get a price on either buying or selling just 25k. Since yesterday I'm getting offers to buy or sell up to 300k in one go. Also, the real spread is just 6.88 - 6.975. We normally only see this in times of high volume, which is certainly not the case on AIM. I'm wondering whether the MMs have woken up to the fact that money can be made shipping them to Sweden, or whether it's just opening up the market for the expected news. Either way I'm expecting an RNS soon re. increased Swedish ownership, which can only be good imo.
Kind of agree with that but you've got to factor in time investment funds are tied up and effectively losing money. I've had money tied up here since 2010 and if I'd just stuck that in a simple tracker I would have made significant gains. Instead I've taken a big hit of those initial investments and had to average down. I think I probably need 20p+ here just to outperform a tracker over 10 years, so not a great decision.
This is on it:
The Case of Västerbotten and Norrbotten in Sweden
The OECD is conducting a Mining Regions Case Study of Västerbotten and Norrbotten. It is focusing on the following themes:
Economic, technological and policy context shaping regional development and mining trends and prospects in northern Sweden;
Current economic trends, growth enablers and bottlenecks with a particular focus on the performance of the mining and extractive sector in northern Sweden;
Assessment of policies, governance and implementation mechanisms (at local, regional, national and EU levels) related to the sustainable supply of raw materials and value-adding and economic diversification in the region.
fyi - it's Boliden. They are waiting for a decision on the Laver mine in Norbotten. My understanding is the crucial difference with Kallak is that their application was rejected in 2016.
Also, I can find nothing that says they are pulling out of Sweden or dropping their application, only that they will not be focussing on new investments in Sweden in future. Ahead of the OECD conference this should further embarrass the government, which I can only see as a good thing.
I was about to say obviously rattling a few people causing a drop in the share price but it's just gone blue in Sweden.