Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Hi all
I still believe Matt and friendly entities are attacking the freefloat for as much percentage at these levels they can get . This will then enable a decent premium MBO which would save face and make him look like he paid a fair price to take it back private . I could be wrong but just the price action seems to point to something . All my opinion
Okehurst - I would have thought MM wouldn’t have paid any tax on the shares as they have not been sold . They are simply a transfer from the company to MM personally.Also his shares are held via a jersey based trust company. It is in MM best interests unless he wants to take this private to get the share price back up to float price and beyond . All my opinion
I think you have to take sir toms post as sarcastic towards the journalist. Sir Tom is close in a business capacity with MM and a mentor. Don’t get me wrong I know we are all unhappy about the share price down at these levels but no one forced us to buy and I’m sure MM has something up his sleeve for when the golden share runs out . When it does Matt will have bigger activist funds wanting change and not just one with a small holding. All my opinion
I think we need to look at meta for a playbook for Thg . Obviously unless MM takes it private in an mbo. Look at the share price of meta since they said they would cut capex and make it more efficient it’s popped . The market wants MM to cut capex and focus on the core profit making divisions and we would get a rerate . All my opinion
Oke - if an mbo is launched it will in my opinion be MM and Qatar providing all the equity to take out the freefloat and other iis rolling over into a private entity just as it was pre ipo.
Hopin - some of the investors involved have got decent wealth but they have put around 150k in each for around 6million shares of Kelso . Not really a big fund is it . Looks more of a punt to see what the investment team are about . Look they are northwest based and might have a sniff of an mbo and can make a great return for their investors in a small amount of time and look very clever indeed. This then helps them gain more credibility with their high net worth investors to do more deals and put more money in via placings and open offers etc.
Look don’t get me wrong it’s nice having Kelso on board and the investment letter was very well conceived and I agreed with all John Gould had to say about Thg hence why I am invested .
All my opinion
All my opinion
Hopin - I agree that some of the individuals involved in Kelso are impressive but they are just passive investors and are not involved in the running of the fund . Kelso doesn’t have the firepower to launch any big interest in Thg but can be very useful to us pi’s to shout from the sidelines. I really do see Kelso stake as opportunistic on the basis of some corporate action be it an MBO , spin off of one of the divisions etc . My money is on an mbo and they will make a great turn and look very clever indeed . All my opinion
Cantona - I agree , sorry re Richard griffiths I didn’t mean in the context of Thg I just meant caretech really as an example . Agree totally about Kelso this stake is minuscule in the context of things and I am surprised the share price has risen as much on the day but happy days . I just think Kelso being based very much in the northwest see this as a nice turn and a really good profit in a short space of time for a new fund . They Will look like genius’s if they have a heard of a takeprivate being worked and have bounced in just before and make a great return . All my opinion
Cantona - re broker pools you could be onto something re number . I would think that they could realistically get a broker pool of a couple of investment banks plus friendly hedge funds / family offices to mop up some of the shares at a price to pass on when the time is right . Look at caretech . Our friend Richard griffiths built a sizeable holding and has rolled some of that over . I suspect some of these new buyers will do the same in a New private entity . I have to agree with you re sanders and moulding / gallemore connection . He will be seen as less of a conflict should MM launch the bid . Would have been very awkward for a board to independently vet a take private approach by the ceo and the finance director still be the cofounder and close friend. Hope this helps Cantona . All my opinion
Five o - I too have a low average and I do agree with you normally the city is a leaky ship. However condor has never been that leaky on the upside or down . If you look at the fundraise or the Jim mellon chairman news or the bfs there was little selling before the fundraise news but on the day of the rns it got smashed and then on the Jim mellon news or bfs there was not much buying before hand but both times the share price went up considerably on the day . I think if something gets signed like a preferred bidder or something then we could see it spike but we are only three weeks into the new year of full weeks . All my opinion
Price action suggests someone building a stake , being kept below 55 and some decent trades gone through . I really do think MM and backer attacking the freefloat before launching an MBO in either back end q1 or early q2. The more freefloat he gets the more he can offer to pis to save face. All my own opinion and could be very wrong
Hi all
I’m not trying to put a downer on all the matalan talk on here but I think we have to be realistic. Matalan has just done a debt for equity swap with its lenders and is in the midst of a turnaround. Hardly a big endorsement for ingenuity. I think this is half the battle and why at the moment ingenuity is getting valued at zero . Ingenuity needs new credibile clients that are flying and not going through a turnaround. Personally it’s all pointing to a take private and we won’t have to worry soon . All my opinion
Can I ask where you get Walmart from with boots it’s walgreens that owns boots unless they have sold in recently. They couldn’t get the price when they put it up for sale a year or so ago if I can remember. All my opinion
Hi all
I think we all need to focus on why you invested . I personally invested as an arbitrage play and I still believe MM will take this private . I have said time and time again the company was massively overvalued at the float and the city is making everyone pay for that now even though it was the banks and advisors that set the price . I feel there is two really profitable online retail businesses that are worth a multiple of 2-2.50 on their own if the board stops cap ex on ingenuity and focus on the core retail business. If MM wants to concentrate on ingenuity then he is better doing it in the private arena where he can take his time and get likeminded long term investment partners to stick with him to help him build it. If you take out the capex on ingenuity- technology, excess distribution etc then you get a retail business with circa 200 million ebitda and very little capex . All my opinion
Totally agree Cantona. I personally think the price action today suits an MM take private as he can say it shows the city doesn’t get Thg and backs the narrative that 2-2.50 wins the day for a take private as pis will be delighted with it but gets longer term holders and press off his back . My opinion
Hi all
Mix bag of results , like the cash position inc facilities. Like cutting cap ex and non core . Shame about the profit warning . I still think this Is ultimately going to be bought out by MM with Qatar and the original iis rolling . Break up value far more than current price especially in the hands of a cash rich pe company like an advent or apollo and MM in my opinion cannot risk losing control on the cheap . All my opinion
THG PLC ("THG") announces that it has completed the internal separation of its key trading divisions which, as previously announced, simplifies THG's corporate divisional structures and provides it with material optionality and flexibility to enter into future strategic partnerships to generate value accretion for its stakeholders.
Taken from RNS 26th July
My opinion
Great post Cantona , totally agree . Without major corporate action , the balance sheet is shot to bits and with the golden share running out opens the door to a breakup . Personally think his preferred option is MBO with deep pocketed Qatar with the original iis rolling and build ingenuity as a private business, listing nutrition and beauty in the states and then eventually listing ingenuity, great value for him if he does . All my opinion
Can’t see it to be honest, must be some noise about something for this pop either leak of good results or MBO rumours . Still believe likely scenario is MM taking it private with iis rolling and Qatar providing equity for the free float . Buyout price 2-2.5 0 . All my opinion
Hi all
I think we need to take todays share price with a pinch of salt . This is a small cap and lots of illiquidity is causing all small caps to sell off massively. The assets are worth multiples of todays share price and should achieve that. The gold price really dictates what the assets are worth and that is going on a bull run . The sanctions will not cause a problem in my opinion. Look in mining you have bad political situations arise a lot . It doesn’t stop the likes of Rio , Glendore etc dealing in places like the Congo which makes Nicaragua look like Switzerland. I truly believe we will get closer to 60p a share for the assets and all cash will be returned to shareholders after expenses. All my opinion and good luck all