Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
The share price is down to liquidity in the markets look at all small caps they are down massively except ones who have had bid approaches. Once this gets concrete interest the value should reflect and we are off to the races . Don’t price the buyout level with the share price . Potential suitors will know they cannot offer lowball and get the assets. I really do think we will get a price reflecting 50-80p but I personally think it will be top of that range as Jim Mellon will want a pay day for all the money invested. All my opinion
Hi all
As I have said before , I’m a relatively new holder with a decent size derivative position with a low average . I understand the lth being negative but I do think that with all resource stocks it is never plain sailing . I really do believe Jim Mellon is in this to make a decent return and has the experience and contacts to get a decent price . The sanctions are a problem if the potential purchaser makes them a problem . Gold is on the rise and will keep on rising with all the inflation and recession fears . Let’s face it the valuation of the assets is based mainly on the gold in the ground and the gold price and not sanctions that can change at any moment depending on political situations at the time . I do think the buyout range is anything north of 50p but I would say nearer 60-70p than many on here think . Look everyone needs to take a step back and realise that gold is a valuable commodity and I’m sure there will be plenty wanting to take this off our hands for a decent price when gold is rising and looks like going on a bull run . All my opinion
Anacott - the hotels and country club are not worth bothering about in the whole scheme of this business and are vanity projects . I think the strategy for Thg going forward is either and MBO or MM needs to pivot and stop the cash burn in the foreseeable in order to protect himself from iis when the golden share ends and activists can come on board and look for change . MBO Favourite looking at the company communication the last few months . Think the only thing stopping it was if MM could find an equity partner and it looks like he has in qia . My opinion
Steve - MM only has to notify when they pass to him it happens all the time in t/0 that a fund or bank will accumulate on one’s behalf then pass on . My opinion
Has anyone thought MM is attacking the free float by driving it lower with help and with QIA to mop up as much as possible so he can offer a decent Take out price to pi’s to save face say £2-2.50 . All my opinion
Goldenyears - I don’t know if it’s a tailwind but the yen has got better in the last few weeks against the dollar and that’s what MM was talking about in the call . I am currently short yen dollar at 1.49 it has got far stronger and that is good for Thg . MM was speaking when the yen was weaker. The yen will only get better and will probably finish the year at 1.15 to the dollar . My opinion
Tax loss selling will probably account for the price action today . Funds can write off the loss against profits elsewhere in their portfolio and with Thg being one of the most down stocks this year it will be one of the ones affected by tax loss selling in my opinion . All my opinion
Anacott - the US ten year yields have gone up massively in the last Two weeks which batters growth stocks . Look at the sell off in all the tech in the last two weeks since yields have risen . My opinion
I really do think apart from inflation and recession fears it’s the golden share that holds THG share price back . If you are an ii why would you buy a decent stake in here if you cannot influence any strategic decisions or push for them . While he has the golden share MM can veto anything hence why the market didn’t take bid action seriously in May because unless MM came out in support from the start it was just noise . Like I said below MM will want to play his own tune on Thg future and not leave himself vulnerable. All my opinion
Hi All - Steve scott - THG most likely only doing one roadshow and that is with QIA . This is all stacked up for an MBO . Look at the noise - chairman saying nothing , no real comments from the company re credit insurance , no comments re strategic review as promised or golden share and time ticking until that lapses and leaves MM vulnerable to activist hedge funds calling for either a stop to capex or a breakup of the group . I think the first quarter will be when not if MM makes a move and what price he will pay . Think it will be around £2 personally. In the meantime until news leaks the share price will dwindle and sell off with the wider tech and retail stocks All my opinion
Sorry Sb read the calendar wrong lol , have a good Christmas all
Market is open wed,thurs and half day fri .
Pearls - I personally don’t think the drop has anything to do with the credit insurance. The Nasdaq got battered and then came back a bit yesterday on worries the fed will continue to tighten. Thg will be taken private in the new year in my opinion. MM and Qatar spent money at 39p and if MM was worried about the companies future he would not invest . Remember MM did not take much cash out at the float and the bonus was paid in shares so as far as an investment the buy at 39p was a big statement . All my opinion
Hosai - I agree recession is baked in in the uk stocks but not the us .JG is right the us has quite a bit to fall to bake in recession. The problem is we will fall not a far but definitely with the US as they re price . The silver lining for the new year could be an MBO announced with Qatar backing and long term iis rolling . All my opinion
This has got nothing to do with thg specific. The jobs report in the states at 1.30 was better than consensus and so the market thinks the fed will have to keep raising rates to tame the job market . The nasdaq is getting smashed and Thg follows it . Thg will not be listed long in the new year in my opinion .all my own opinion
It’s hard to point to a takeout price because of the small free float MM could offer more than normal to save face . I would suggest anything between £2-£3 . Top end would be swimming the channel for pi’s but could be offered if most of the ii’s roll with . All my opinion
MBO - new year in my opinion.all my opinion
In my opinion this is all pointing to MBO with Qatar in the new year . Nutrition a smoke screen personally . MM will not want to have his golden share lapses and be vulnerable to corporate action by activists or pe . All my opinion
Or the other theory is nutrition to be sold and the credit insurers have got wind and won’t extend more until they know more . All my opinion
Could it not be dropped by insiders to soften the shareholders for a bid in Jan . All my opinion