RE: Imagine you have opened a new garden centre ....13 Oct 2025 13:13
Where are countries piling into "digital gold"? Bitcoin is tracking sideways, it's not any higher than it was in July. Personally I'm not confident that bitcoin won't tank with tech stocks if there was a proper tech breakdown.
It's not an Nvidia bubble it's an AI bubble. There's 3 elements to this. The technology providers, which includes Meta, Google, IBM, Xai and Microsoft etc (as well as OpenAI, Anthropic etc), the hardware providers which includes Nvidia, Oracle, Advanced Micro, AMD etc), and then there's the companies implementing the technology in their own businesses (the revenue generating b2b buyers). All of these are part of the bubble because they're storming on the hope that AGI will be achievable and business will be able to reap great growth opportunities from it. The truth is that doesn't exist.
I've studied AI at Oxford University and the technology isn't there. It will likely get there eventually but it's not there yet and all of this investment is based on something that may happen in the future. It's fully disconnected from reality. What we're waiting for now is for the money to run out and for businesses to start dialling back their AI spend. The fact you're seeing OpenAI create a circular economy proves they've run out of road.
I agree that I think this still has a bit further to go, maybe into next year, but this is so big a machine, that never recovered from 2008 or 2020, governments can't afford to backstop this time. It can only end up in a monetary reset