George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Mcsquares 100% - no effect to operations, passed far south and across in the Channel between the continent and Madagascar. TGR is in its strongest position ever, not just because it has not been effected by weather in anywhere near the same level as last year (following which it still bounced back with increased production and sales for the year) but also because it now is able to continue its ramp up for >6,000MTs of production and sales a quarter which should produce a very strong bottom line for the company to progressively build on this foundation in Madgascar.
Looking forward to the squeeze here when it comes as this realisation occurs!
GLA
Restarting some accumulation at these levels - board has made positive noise including positive notes from the likes of Ghana’s Minerals Commission and MIIF
https://twitter.com/atlanticlithium/status/1635170344515563521?s=46&t=Kd9oN7lEXrwqvOg2hyHmPg
GLA
Very good to see EMH produce its DFS for its integrated project
Ball is rolling now with Europe aware of the need for as much domestic Lithium production as possible with the advent of the CRA this month and SAV's EIA submission. With Portugal continuing to grow its renewables share of its energy supply, and SAV the simplest significant large scale, shovel ready resource i'm hoping Dale can complete the company's work with APA and that Portugal can propel itself to the front of Europe's supply chain needs.
GLA
INA deal now looking extremely close (I know all been said before lol) - but just look at the stock entitlement buildup valuation - INA deal will almost have paid for itself because of its effective date of 30th September 2021:
https://twitter.com/Alastai85608932/status/1633015613441429505?s=20
In parallel expecting a very strong situation for the Sonangol deal - oil has remained and is forecast to remain very healthily above $75/bbl level and effective date is from 20th April 2022 so we are nearly a year there - the whole deal has under a 3 year payback at $75/bbl. This is going to provide a very nice runway into the next deals imo with a lot of free cash flow coming onto the balance sheet.
GLA
Great presentation, love how confident she evidently is.
What was even better for me was her input in the follow up discussion on financing, urge all to listen and see if the same bits stand out to you as they did to me ;)
GL
Good luck to all shareholders. Good luck to all Portuguese. Good luck to all Europeans. Good luck to Savannah.
EIA has been a long time coming and fantastic we have almost reached the point of submission this month. SAV+Portugal could be responsible for a huge shift in the geopolitical strategy with regards to the nascent domestic European Li-ion battery supply chain. A green light here will be extremely significant news and wish all parties supporting this project every success.
disagree with a line that rigid - from experience in Africa cans can be kicked for a long time and will test the patience of those with the best patience levels - longstop dates no longer mean what they are supposed to and are merely symbolic now.
Glyn,
There are of course more than 2 Graphite producers in the world.
The point I think being made is that there are only 2 outside China, that are listed on public markets to date that have brought projects online. These are Syrah Resources and Tirupati Graphite.
As far as I’m aware the closest other public listed companies to achieving production and bringing actual new projects online are are Nextsoure Materials which is a few months from starting production of its 17,000tpa plant in Southern Madagascar, and potentially Northern Graphite Corp in Namibia (their North American asset was acquired off Imerys, so was already in production).
Many companies in the space are v early stage, still qualifying their material, arranging offtakes and have massive infrastructure and capex to fund. I can’t see any other major ex-China production coming online for another 12-15 months, and that’s being optimistic imo! TGR is therefore in a sweet spot if it can leverage its current production capacity, ability to continue to qualify material and expand production rapidly, as well as able to rapidly bring on the fresh production assets in Mozambique if the demand is there!
GLA
Yep - having followed the cyclone on windy.com it was around 100km South of TGR operations. With construction completed and commissioning of Sahamamy the company is now in very good position to ramp up to targeted 80%+ of 30,000tpa.
Would remind people Vatomina was up and running all of the Oct-Dec quarter so production and sales of those 3 months were likely higher than the whole of the preceding 6 months published in the interim results to September. Plus looking at another strong quarter in Jan-April of again higher numbers so in my estimate the second half of this year to March will be roughly 3x higher than the 1st half, so still a chance to breakeven this FY!
Looking forward TGR is in a v strong position to develop its plans with the 30,000tpa capacity installed. Rough numbers for the next 12 months I reckon: 80% of 30,000MTs@$820/MT= c$20m revenue. At 40% gross margin = c.$8m gross profit , $5-7m EBITDA.
Lots of opportunity to leverage those numbers to reinvest into the next module depending on how TGR sees its priorities playing out and demand for various products. Also opens scope to further work on the downstream/TSG side.
GLA
TGR as a current significant producer is what puts it in the driving seat, miles ahead of those yet to reach production or even begin qualification of material let alone those in remote locations which will have huge costs per MT of production.
What makes TGS special in this instance: TGR is selling and qualifying to existing, new and prospective consumers, and is far more easily able to increase capacity via its modular expansion approach. Plus major construction ready, explored and proven, assets being acquired either side of ex-China’s largest producer, Syrah Resource already producing material anode products for the likes of Tesla.
At 30,000tpa TGR should be a very healthy financial venture, producing strong positive cashflows (by my calcs it can do this if it sells around 8,000MTs in a year - we are now at a point of doing that in just over every 4 months at the full production rate.
The previous fundraise provided money for the various payment conditions of the Battery minerals/Suni Resources deal as well as working capital - negative EBITDA fell last year and would have been closer to positive had we not had the weather disruption in Feb 2022 and production innovations+mitigations throughout 2022.
TGR now in a very strong position to be the first potential profitable Graphite miner ex-China going into FY23-24 imo
GLA
With this RNS TGR is finally a globally significant producer
30,000tpa built using in-house capabilities, at industry low capex is no small feat. Now to watch the company ramp up to >6,000MTs per quarter of production and sales. Any further movement in graphite prices upward will be extremely beneficial now as we are a current significant producer.
Expecting more news to come as the company continues its development imo
GLA
It hardly a secret MIIF are investing given all the publicity the project has received in the past year/months - clearly it makes sense for Ghana to have a significant interest (for which their investment will go toward the ALL coffers don't forget) in such a project that will be a vital link to new global supply chains forming for the global energy transition!
Enjoying the occasional top up opportunities sub 30p - 10 months is not a long time for dealmaking related to oil-producing assets and transactions involving the state and multiple parties.
As we know INA is effectively a matter of any day now, even as the weeks have passed since the approval RNS in mid January.
Sonangol deal will take time and M&P have sounded positive in their recent commentary on license extensions on the same block.
All the while I would hope the AET team are scouting out new possible deals, which their publicised networking and noises suggest has been ongoing.
GLA
Good news this legal claim is so unfounded that the claimants can't even file against the correct parties
Onwards
Hi Binbin,
Having managed to get through to them successfully multiple times, my advice would be to keep emails with questions short as they are more likely to reply. You can always send follow up questions.
We are due an update imminently, that is well known by the company and the wider market/investors.
Clearly the BAT deal is nearly complete given BAT’s investor presentation further highlighting payments having begun and provided a timetable to indicate completion, something we haven’t seen before, see below tweet with info or search for BAT’s presentation:
https://twitter.com/alastai85608932/status/1625051744123121668?s=46&t=jXfeBy_Qr8Xwg-9PvvXSYw
Madagascar operations at 30,000tpa capacity established, hydropower coming online and sales and margins pointing upward and gaining momentum, as well as an action plan or guidance for the next 6 months is what we want to see in the next update.
I also would like a couple of things, because clearly the market needs to see them for TGR to acquire a higher value on top of improving operations and strong financials:
1. Professionalisation
TGR is an expert company, filled with Graphite experts such as the Poddars as we know. However, to date they have achieved much with the little resources at their disposal, unmatched by any other Graphite company, except maybe those in China (even they have benefitted from state subsidies however). Arriving at the 30,000tpa symbolises becoming a producer of global stature as one of the largest ex-China. This level will provide cash and resources to upgrade the outfit - I would like to see news about a professional sales office being set up outside of India to engage with future customers - some companies have several professionals dotted around China/the Middle East/US/EU and if TGR is to deal in significant quantities such sales representatives/offices may be of use. Relationships with Hanwa also need to formally be upgraded with this announced to market to show confidence in future sales.
2. Transparency
I’m all for how TGR has worked to date in order to stretch resources while they’ve been tight on cash to expand to a level they’re earning. But at 30,000tpa with ambitions to hit 84,000tpa+ in Madagascar and develop 2 massive projects in Mozambique we need TGR to better deal with the investor community to help attract serious long term investors (some might call them institutions). This involves updating the website and providing clear updated goals and plans going forward for each of the new Mozambique projects as well as turbocharging Madagascar now it’s about to be a significant producer with cash flows to leverage. Reports like the sustainability report should be published when they are meant to be I.e. alongside the Annual Report, and operations updates should become quarterly.
There’s more to be done, for example clarity on the downstream (forget the UK, build in US or even Middle East imo) and TSG. But I’m optimist for the future her
Think we will have an update this or next week, seems to be a trend of announcements coming a couple of weeks after company targets
Also of note is that it looks as though the BAT Suni Resources deal is nearly completed with the first instalment payment already issued to the BAT in January according to BAT’s quarterly activity report . Think we could expect an update on the last quarter etc next.
GLA
The introduction in Ghana to the prospect of value-added downstream capacities is huge news imo. As pointed out historically this step has been taken outside of most African mining jurisdictions - I would suggest developing economies are doing exactly that in this instance and Ghana may become an increasingly attractive investment destination as things progress on this front - it takes one to lead for others to follow…
GLA