Member Info for GKahn

Exxon and Shell are rather bad examples as possible farm-in candidates. Shell pulled out of Mongolia after having acquired BG Group which had farmed into Blocks IV & V – not Block XX (note). Shell recently cut its dividend for the first time in 75 years. Also, PM will be obligated to repay US$10 million to Shell in the event that PM concludes a farm-in. Exxon reported a loss in the first quarter 2020. Suffice-it-to-say, these are not good times for the oil majors and many oil companies are struggling and don’t have the budgets to consider farm-ins and new country entry, particularly in JV with a financially weak operator.

Those who have followed PM for many years will know that it took a very long time from initially opening the data-room before it secured the BG farm-in; no sooner was the ink dry on the deal, Shell bid for BG. Subsequent to Shell’s withdrawal from the BG farm-in, PM again opened up its data room to seek a replacement farminee. Eventually, nothing progressed, and the reason given by PM was reluctance of companies to new country entry, notwithstanding the low exploration costs, favourable terms and an oil price which at that time was more than double today’s oil price.

While it is possible that an interested party will come forward, it seems rather unlikely that a farm-in or JV will be concluded. In regard to Block XX, I believe that a farm-in will not be possible without a favourable offtake arrangement with PetroChina; and PetroChina has no obvious interest in a Block XX farm-in given the terms of Mongolian PSCs.

In these circumstances, I would prefer to see PM going it alone provided it has full support of the Mongolian government which apparently is currently the case. Inevitably for this scenario, there will be fund raising and dilution but not before the exploitation licence has been granted.

That Envoi has been appointed to find a farm-in partner for Block XX, indicates to me that PetroChina is not interested in a farm-in. While PetroChina should be interested in additional supplies of crude for its refineries in China, until the Mongolian refinery is operational, PM is not in a strong negotiating position for an offtake arrangement with PetroChina. This is relevant to the prospects of a farm-in with a strategic partner as a prospective farminee will want to ensure that crude offtake is assured on acceptable terms.

I do not expect the exploitation licence to be issued any time soon but hopefully in good time for PM to plan and organise a full and exciting exploration and development programme for next year.

The information on this board about Sukh2 indicates that he became a member today. If that is so, how can say with credibility "there have been some trolls on the MATD for a long time"?

What on earth is this about?

Lets hope they are listening

Development of large-scale projects should be pursued by companies with management expertise and are well-funded. In my opinion FAR management should actively seek a takeover offer.

I am surprised that there have been no takeover approaches. The company must be vulnerable and very attractive to a number of players

Thanks, NWGB: good to find like-minded believers on this board. I have been a shareholder since day 1 on AIM, i.e. for more than 12 years, so I have learned the meaning of patience over years of thrills and spills where the share price has traded between 1.5 p and 210 p!

I took an interest in PM because of the enormous potential, its 100% ownership of its license areas and the low-cost exploration cost and favourable fiscal terms. Twelve years on nothing has really changed, notwithstanding the many intervening disappointments. Ironically, I consider that PM may be better placed now than at any time over the last ten years, notwithstanding the current weak oil price and significant uncertainties relating to the likely progress of Covid 19.

In my opinion PM should go it alone and not actively look for JVs or farm-ins to dilute its interest and raise issues over continuing operatorship. Many participants on this board are hoping for a farm-in by PetroChina. However, while an offtake agreement with the Chinese for Block XX production may benefit all parties, all Mongolian PSCs give the government the right to direct domestic production to its refinery as and when it is operational. As I see it, this favours PM in the long term, and a disincentive for PetroChina to pursue a farm-in on Block XX.

The scenario that I hope PM will pursue will require equity fundraising(s) to unlock the potential, with inevitable dilution, but this could nevertheless be beneficial for shareholders depending on quantum, timing and the placing price.(s) Hopefully, there will be no equity raised before the exploitation licence for Block XX is issued. Some funds will be required for further exploration and development of Block XX and, of course, allocation to the Block V Raptors.

Stay fit and positive

GKahn

When the Block XX exploitation licence application was submitted in Q4 2019, Mike Buck was confident that the approval would be granted before the end of Q1 2020. Now, three months on, it has become apparent that the approval process was much more complex than originally envisaged by Mike Buck, requiring additional reports, plans and independent assessments. Consider what we have learned most recently:

1 The Block XX Exploitation Licence application continues to progress through the government's approval process and is now with expert auditors appointed by the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry. (notably not MRPAM)

2 Plan of Development documentation is nearing completion and will be ready for submission to the Ministry once the Reserves Report has been approved.

3 The Exploitation Licence application process in Mongolia is quite a complex process but it is progressing.

Given the circumstances and history, we must surely anticipate that many more months of patience may be required. Hopefully, the approval will be given before Christmas so that PM can plan for eventful and hopefully successful operations in 2021.

As at 31 December 2019, the Group's cash position was $4.3 million. The Group's current cash position is $2.3 million, which … will be sufficient, in absence of new fundraising, for the Company to operate until the end of Q1 2021.
The Block XX Exploitation Licence application continues to progress through the government's approval process and is now with expert auditors appointed by the Ministry of Mining and Heavy Industry. Plan of Development documentation is nearing completion and will be ready for submission to the Ministry once the Reserves Report has been approved.
Petro Matad's main activity in 2020 is focused on incorporating all the data gathered in the 2019 drilling campaign…. The Exploitation Licence application process in Mongolia is quite a complex process but it is progressing.
These extracts from the recent final results (i) imply that PM is not planning for any operational expenditures this year; (ii) there are a number of elements to the exploitation approval process which have to be completed; and (iii) there is no need for an equity fund raise prior to grant of the licence.
I believe that that both PM and MRPAM recognise that there will be no operational activity of significance this year, given the narrowing seasonal window and lead times involved. Thus, there is little or no timing pressure on MRPAM to approve the exploitation licence, but it will be granted.
Patience for another six months.

I am not expecting approval of the exploitation licence until much later in the year. Moreover, from the cash position and forecast through q1 next year summarised in the Final Results, surely implies that drilling this year is unlikely
GKhan

Hepseal, many thanks, I had overlooked the 5 June announcement. It seems that something must have occurred in the very short period after options were issued on 1 June.

AJW: If that were the case why was he issued options on 1 June and only three weeks later he is terminated from his executive position, with no reason given, but remains a director - presumably a non-executive director. Any such director change should have been properly announced in accordance with the AIM rules
Very bizarre

Yes, but no mention of Petrovis.

“In the event a petroleum refinery is installed within the territory of Mongolia, the government will have the right to pre-emptively purchase petroleum products for the refinery which are allocated to a contractor in accordance with a PSC” Extract from Mongolian Petroleum Law

Presumably this right would apply to PM’s block XX production but also to PetroChina’s Block XIX production, all of which is currently sent to refineries in China. Clearly this could have implications for a deal between PM and PetroChina, particularly a possible farm-in.

PetroChina will be interested in a Block XX deal with PM on the basis that the crude oil will be destined for a refinery in China. In my opinion, I can’t see that PetroChina would be interested in an offtake deal, farm-in or JV on any other basis. On the other hand, the Mongolian government will want Heron and other Block XX producing wells as feedstock for the Mongolian refinery when it is operational. However, PM needs a cooperative deal with PetroChina at least for the next few years.

It should not take that long to get regulatory approval for an exploitation licence unless there are political considerations, and destination of Heron production could be the issue that is holding up the process. There is also the upcoming election in less than two weeks, which may possibly be a factor.

There is also the matter of the application for extension of the exploration licence for Block V which has been outstanding for many months and this too should not be overly complex. However, I suspect that its approval is held over pending resolution of the Heron exploitation licence application.

He is a vile manipulator and is very successful at the potential expense of others

Many thanks Jimi. Yes indeed - probably very relevant

Ojay
You are certainly much less weird than many on this board. But then some are definitely in need of counselling, if not sectioning in one case.
As regard the small sales, the only possible explanation is that the person selling is trying to send a signal on the “hoped for” direction of the share price. I have noticed that the small trades are generally transacted at the outer limits of the spread which might support this theory. In any event - most odd
GKahn

Five very small trades over a short period at 2.50 p, each realising £24.48