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BV are you the most elaborate wyndrum sleeper account yet? BP is not a single entity, they don’t sit around a table and agree that they’ll all hold off until Avacta are desperate for cash before carving up Avacta like some some kind of composite pharma man. Your posts have become increasingly unhinged of late.
My point is that if anyone is interested in the platform they’re not going to wait for Avacta to be pulling in 100mn in sales before making a move as Avactas position will just become stronger.
So before further dilutive funding is needed, either we get a license deal, we get taken over, or failing that would this just indicate this isn’t of any interest to anyone, and so dilutive funding is the least of our worries.
Not only that, but it was nosediving from august 23 all the way to the end of october, no doubt with its own grim reaper squad chanting "death spiral, death spiral" throughout. It then doubled in 2 weeks and doubled again in 8 weeks. A cautionary tale for anyone subscribing to our resident doom mungers.
You stated:
"CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price."
Let's assume 45p for the share price, given it's likely the rns will be monday/tuesday next week, and that the price is taken as a 10% discount of the vwap of preceding days. The upcoming payment will look something like the following:
| Coupon Payment (£M) | Amortization Payment (£M) | Cumulative Repayment (£M) | Total Shares (M) | Dilution (%) | Cumulative Shares (M) | Cumulative Dilution (%) | Balance (£M) | Share price |
| 0.62 | 1.9 | 2.52 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 36.1 | 0.45 |
That's a dilution of 1.57% this quarter and 5.59m shares over roughly 65 trading days until the next quarterly payment. That is an average of 84,600 share per day that needs to be absorbed. Since we dropped to 50p we have on average traded around 4m shares per day, so that represents an additional 2% shares per day that need to be absorbed. It's the kind of transaction that sheppy eats for breakfast.
It's 3 months then until the next quarter, say around July 22nd, at which point the 2w results are likely to be coming into view, so that 84000 shares per day just becomes insignificant.
On top of this we have just had GSA capital open a short position, so there's 1.75m shares of buying pressure that need to be closed right there ;)
i ran the numbers to get a better understanding of the impact, no prompting from anyone. as we saw, they're really not that bad given all the reasons i mentioned; in particular:
- the worst payments have been
- the ever reducing principal and interest payments
- the fact that it is still spread over 3.5 years
- the heavy weighting to the final payment in 3.5 years
there's going to be no sudden and catastrophic dilution event.
when you couple that with the fact that there is now 44m in the bank and so there will be no other source of dilution for the foreseeable - we're good.
you can sit on the side-lines and await events, that's everyone's prerogative, however i'm sure you'll openly admit that you don't have the foggiest what events are inbound and when ;) wyndrum keeps trying to tell us he has a crystal ball, but admit it, you have no idea, any of you, which makes all of what you say completely hypothetical. for example, you might wake up one day to some event and the price is up 500%, or we might go 4 quarters with no news with the share price on its ****. hint, it'll be somewhere between the two.
what i do know however, was that the p1a results were brilliant, and reading between the lines and applying some basic logic about the chemistry involved here, the 2w results are likely to be an improvement on these, so we may not have to wait as long as you think for one of those events.
so, hc shares will undoubtedly apply downward pressure, but not that much. on the other hand, stonking 2w results, which are not that far away, could apply far more upwards pressure. it's for everyone to work out when the best time to be in our out is, however, so long as we have this singular focus from your crew, then it's important to keep raising awareness of the upside to this proposition, for balance.
"All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference."
Including the p1a results, which are as good as I could have hoped for given the patient cohorts. All success criteria of the p1a phase ticked off, with a Brucey bonus of observed efficacy in a group of patients that were never anticipated respond positively to the treatment.
I look back at that very recent event, satisfied. Now I look forward to the Q2W, which it's hard to see how these won't be even better given the treated cohorts are going to be more targeted (the last we heard) and the dosing more frequent.
touk, you don't seem to know your **** from your elbow. to my question about whether p1a results were good ones, you replied with:
"on their own they aren’t"
i roundly disagree with that, and have given my reasoning. whereas, i'm sorry to say, you generally tail off into a black hole of despair.
Cj62, I don't hang off every word that Al mutters, I follow the trajectory of the trial, and base my decision on how well or not that is going. I'm also trying to read between the lines about the shifting strategy, and to me it stacks up. You must appreciate that any experimental endeavour, of which a clinical trial could be considered as such, will naturally take an evolving path.
So far, the mechanism of fap cleavage works, that much we can be sure of, but whether AVA6000 with a Dox warhead will be some silver bullet for treating cancer I'm not so convinced. That said, there are clear signs that dox is effective on some tumour types, so with the right strategy (dosing regimen and targeting of indications) this trial will achieve a number of things:
- it should prove effective for many high fap tumours, particularly some orphan diseases, which is brilliant. It should even prove effective for many other high fap indications, but unfortunately as long as Avacta go it alone with its limited resources, these remain out of scope for now.
- it will prove the delivery mechanism, which opens the doors to license deals for other warheads, that might ultimately become a silver bullet for any high fap cancers
- it will generate cash for Avacta. Even for orphan designations this could dwarf our recent fundraising efforts, and would put Avacta in a very strong negotiating position.
The path that Avacta are steering is designed to get us to that point and in my view the change in tack is down to the reality of limited time and resources, and Avacta making the best use of these to reach a position of strength.
Touk, I'll help you a bit as you seem blinded somewhat by the golden goose. Tell me, what were the success criteria for phase1a? What would have made it a successful phase and what has in fact been proven? What do the cases of efficacy tell us, even those with a minor response?