George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
I'm not proposing a change in management at this stage, the trial is progressing well, that would just be disruption and a distraction from the end goal. The numbers were more of a demonstration that the company could fall back on the DX sale at some point, either to clear the bond, or even to fund this venture over the finishing line.
Launch was acquired for 24m and Coris for 7.4m, totalling 31.4m.
The CL has now been reduced to 35.7m.
If DX could be sold for a smallish loss, say 27m, and that cash put in the bank, it could be used to cover those payments from here until a genuine inflection point is reached.
Whether that's a likely scenario or not, who knows. Surely must be under consideration.
No idea how much dx is worth now, but also worth reminding ourselves that the sale of that division will put cash in the bank. Even if at a loss it would still be preferable to further dilution, and likely restore some sentiment. It's a card to be played at some point, even if questionable to begin with.
Yes you are right, it's 42.1p, must have mis-typed. Agree, makes little difference to the overall dilution. It's also a good message from management that they are keeping in mind the balance between dilution vs cash repayment.
Under the bond terms, the repayment of interest and amortization is covered by:
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Share Payments:
For any interest and amortisation payments made in Ordinary Shares (which shall be subject to certain conditions including no potential event of default having occurred and maintenance of a minimum free float), the Ordinary Shares to be delivered shall be calculated by dividing the interest or amortisation amount due by the lower of (a) the prevailing conversion price, in each case on the applicable repayment date and (b) 90 per cent. of the Market Price per Ordinary Share (as defined below)
The "Market Price" is the lower of the arithmetic average of the VWAP for the Ordinary Shares: (i) on the ten (10) trading days, ending on the applicable date or (ii) on the five (5) trading days, ending on the applicable date, but in no event shall it be greater than the VWAP of the Ordinary Shares on the applicable date
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How then has the market price been worked out at 45p (resulting in a conversion price of 41.4p), when we have not even been below 45.5p, let alone averages?
That's right Wyndrum, there are plenty of examples where it just was not known by the market before an event occurred. If the market was all knowing the price would remain constant. It is not, get over it.
No wishful thinking. Go back and watch the latest presentation, it's all there in plain sight. No conspiracies, the data out is compelling already. Just time and patience to get this through the phases.
The drop over the past few days could be attributable to the quarterly bond payment which is due Monday. Following this the next dilution event will be July 22nd, which also roughly coincides with the completion of the 2w arm. It’ll be an interesting battle of sentiment and it’s not clear how the next quarter will play out!
This one has had me scratching my head. There is nothing I could find online about a requirement for a 40 day blackout in this situation. Why would the funds want time to offload, unless they believed the price would recover by now?
I think it's more basic, in that there is no good news story around the raise other than it was handed to II's on the cheap, and maybe the thinking is that keeping quiet is better than admitting that. It would have been a double shock to the SP. Better to dangle a high quality european investment fund in front of a the baying crowds and then introduce a self-imposed 40 day blackout in the hope that the price has recovered by the time it was "lifted". Pope Turner wouldn't say any more on that when I spoke to them, but did say it was coming to an end at the end of this month. Tick followed tock followed tick....
I had a go at explaining it here: https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=AVCT&share=Avacta-Group&thread=EDF71E44-3D7F-4737-9698-C36A5B2A888D
So, on top of the placing which is the main driver behind the drop in price, trapping of liquidity and the dent in sentiment, you are asking me my view on the poster event in isolation? As a veteran of the AIM market, wyndrum, I'm sure you know the answer to this anyway ;)
The poster was a minor liquidity event, which was quickly filled in. In the days of yore there might have been a few more days of excitement, but we're now in a post-bs era where liquidity is scarce, particularly on AIM.
AIM has always attracted gannets, but they're now fighting over ever smaller plates of chips. Another quality of a gannet is that it doesn't look too far or wait too long for its chips. If you told it to wait patiently until next month when a massive plate of chips will arrive, this is no good for the gannet, as it has to feed daily on everyone's scraps.
So, until the massive plate of chips arrives, which could be the 2w results, or early p2 results, and until sentiment returns, minor events such as the poster will be sold into. I read absolutely zilch into the underlying trial performance, except to say that as a result of the dent in sentiment, many will now require further validation or trial progress before injecting further capital. If the placing had been at 90p, I'd wager that we wouldn't event be having this conversation, and the share price would be back up above 100p already.
The share price fall is clearly as a result of the placing, and the dent in sentiment as a result. A lot of capital has been trapped above 100p, and so PI liquidity has been reduced. There will be those that kept some on the side, and others that bailed at the placing price, so it's a waiting game now to see how low this goes before piling in. A few more localised waves to go before this is reached. In the short term this is at the whim of trading.
Think you are projecting again. My opinion, as I've stated, is that the 2w trial results will be the next touch point. Any subsequent bigger news will only come following that. The examples of Alpine Immunity just demonstrate that there can be vacuums of doubt and despair before such turns.
Anything is possible thorn. I'd expect the usual dynamics to kick in well before then and all those sitting on the side-lines waiting for the low are likely to pile in.
This quarter's payment will be in the 40's. Why entertain such a scenario? 😂
Let's put it like this, if it gets to 10p then anyone with any dry powder left over is going to do very well indeed.
That's one possible scenario out of many wyndrum.
Let's revisit the case of Alpine Immune Science.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/4uyLkwXa/?symbol=NYSE%3ANIO
From Aug 23 to Nov 23, the share price dropped 44%. Why did it do that? What didn't the market know about the upcoming deal, what were all the doubts swirling around at the time to push it down? No doubt there were hoards of naysayers taking the opportunity to talk the prospect down and capitalise. Then, out of the blue, in Nov the price just started to rocket. It continued to ascend for 5 months and a left orbit earlier this month when the takeover was announced. Did everyone know about the takeover six months in advance? Will the next price rise that avacta enjoys also indicate a takeover in 6 months? Does the market know anything at all?
"The assumption is 2WD will be better for outcomes. But will it?"
"The implication is either this is not quite the breakthrough in cancer care we all think, or it is still has the potential to fail"
The 3w trial has already demonstrated the delivery mechanism, so "has it got the potential to fail"? Absolutely not. Between the results of the last phase and the new 2w trial, the pharmacokinetics of precision will be the same in terms of delivery, but could yield better response rates. Even if precision with dox doesn't have a 100% response rate, the mechanism is proven, and any number of more potent warheads could be strapped to it. So does it have the potential to fail - no, as it has in many respects already succeeded.
Another possibility, given the comments that have been made along the way by AS, that there were a few approaches by some minnows that wanted to take a punt with precision, but either were chancers trying to take advantage of Avacta's cash situation, or genuinely didn't have the funds to stump up decent cash upfront. If this were the case then it's only a good thing they are declined.
Anyway, we should get a pretty good idea of how this really works when targeted and dosed more frequently, once the ongoing trial 2w results are released (let's not forget patients are being dosed as we speak!). This for me could be the pivotal decision point for anyone following the actual trial results, be it PI's or BP.
Wyndrum is focusing on one hypothetical scenario. By all means take it on board, but it's just one of many.
BV, thanks for elaborating your point. If it's validation that BP is looking for then this could come in a few forms:
- A license deal or two (as you say)
- A nod from the FDA
- Overwhelmingly positive results coming out of the 2w trial or early P2 trial results
BV are you the most elaborate wyndrum sleeper account yet? BP is not a single entity, they don’t sit around a table and agree that they’ll all hold off until Avacta are desperate for cash before carving up Avacta like some some kind of composite pharma man. Your posts have become increasingly unhinged of late.