Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I agree whole heartedly regards to a deal would want a known DMS strike zone
All I saying is, its more likely a deal could be done when the outstanding Creswick licence is granted, than if the contested one around Ballarat.
Given how small the DMS is in ballarat, it could be made as a side note in the t' and c's......therefore EL006713 is the main event
Whilst the numbers here are unlikely to be a sell on valve, it doesn't change the fact that based on today's price we are looking at £120M+ profit.
I agree, i expect a 8-12% sale price vs asset value, would be what the target is. £10M would see a lovely SP of circa 10X
The biggest variable will be if this extends west.....this far it suggests it is possible, then add that extension as additional asset value.....easy to add another 1Mt to the calculations
The point if the calculations are to show the disconnect between SP and what is proven in the ground already.....not what's coming
Only outstanding Creswick licence I can see is EL006713, which appears to be uncontested:
https://earthresources.vic.gov.au/licensing-approvals/location-of-licences/licences-near-me#lat=-37.47001987362717&lng=143.9134790132178
The contested one i thought was Ballarat EL007537 (which does have the three others):
https://earthresources.vic.gov.au/licensing-approvals/location-of-licences/licences-near-me#lat=-37.549530059409996&lng=143.83215513779103
My fault sorry
Actual Values:
5.1MT = 8.7% Zinc (440kT) & 2.6% Lead (133kT)
Our 23.44% Share = Zinc 103.1kT & Lead 31.2kT
88% Zinc Recovery = 90.73kT
80% Lead Recovery = 24.96kT
* Updated for todays metal prices*
Zn $2850 p/T = c$260M
Pb $2050 p/T = c$51M
Say c$290M
Processing cost of US$21.25/t
Mining cost of US$46.50/t
These costs are based on Jan 2021 so add 15% for inflation and current price increases => c$80
1.195MT (23.44% of 5.1MT) pay material
Multiplied by $80 p/T combined costs
= c$95M
So....$290M - $90M = c$200M (£170M)
Irish corporate tax is 25% of the £170M = £127.5M clear.
We are valued about 2% of what is profit in the ground proven..........madness
Never mind if it's extended with these recent drills.
Easy buy tbh
Honestly tamer we do this little dance constantly, it's getting ridiculous.
Fact is Market cap is king here. That determines the SP.
The FACT is when we were at at 4.4p peak the company was valued at about £28M
Today £28M is approximately 2.6p
So, as it stands, to get ECRs recent highest valuation, at the peak of the last market cycle that is what we have to hit.......that's not based on your opinion, TS or even my opinion......that's just how a company is valued
Valuation divided by shares in issue gives you share price.
It's also a statement of fact that if the company is to realise a 4.4p share price the company has to create a Market cap of approximately £49M:
1.1B shares Multiplied by £0.044 - pretty straight forward.
Non of the above was a statement of opinion
My opinion is that near term (by end of year) it will challenge a 1.7p resistance. 2.2p I'm not sure when I mentioned that or if I did?
I also said I think its highly unlikely we will see 4.4p in that near term, which would be significantly higher than it ever has been (talking about Market value here) based on what we know now.
If all the ducks line up, then all bets are off.....this is AIM, ducks rarely line up in a row
Tamer you are cherry picking information and taking it out of context.
I'm talking about the fact people assume the SP is comparitive as to the peak of 4.4p......it is not and showed why
It's a statement of fact not of what potential is here
Share price then is completely irrelevant now, as the shares in circulation is significantly more, than when he said we were undervalued.
4.4p was circa £28M Market cap.
28M now is about 2.6p. In order to see 4.4p again the company has to create a public opinion value of circa £49M
Be nice to see short term, but we need to be a hell of alot further down the road, even if everything due to drop goes in our favour.
A massive part for me here is the rental side and/or contract drilling.
This could provide opportunity to increase revenue pushing dilution further down the road. It also gives an opportunity for payments to be made to us in the form of "Farm ins".....do the drill work for a stake in the prospectors licences.
Over and above this it plays a massive step in securing the contested licence around Ballarat, EL007537:
https://earthresources.vic.gov.au/licensing-approvals/location-of-licences/licences-near-me#lat=-37.59388659697882&lng=143.81426410175692
Showing the Victoria government that, not only do we have the finances to develop the aforementioned licence, but the equipment to do it ourselves.
Tamer, the market caps were similar at the time, that is not up for debate, but again the fact is that Blue Moon will most likely not be a multimillion ounce resource like GGP have. Think it was mentioned by CB years ago, aiming for 100-200K JORC.....that's why I say apples and oranges
Easier to get out the ground, yes almost certainly, can we build it ourselves, absolutely not. I'll come back to that later
BCB, by that reconning if 1M Oz is £70M, surely 200K isn't going to make this hit £50M any time soon? Creswick is most likely to yield a collective 1M Oz resource.....again that's a big ask for ECR and JV partners know we can't sit on these forever. So we have to speculative to accumulate.
Then as stated, it all depends on the deal that is made with JV partners. If we get an all singing all dancing deal and retain a small percentage for zero outgoings, then yeah that would be great, but ultimately that will be very unlikely and ECR will have to shoulder some of the burden like GGP have had to - but that's all after the fact - we need to establish a JORC that has bang for buck on a partners investment.
ECR need to run before they walk, as you said we are a basement play.....hell of alot of stairs to get to GGP level. Is AH the right man for the job? He appears to be so far
Don't get me wrong if this hits 4p soon I'll be ecstatic, it's certainly peanuts at this price
Tamer I like you, and I like your positive outlook, but you cant compare widths of up to 100M and widths of 15M that we have. Gold is gold 100%, but Blue Moon, and the rest of our Victoria assets results, aren't the same geology.
Our own team are saying high grade narrow veins, multiple yes, but Havieron is just wide high grade. Apples and oranges, sorry if you disagree but it's what the geology is telling us in the drilling results.
Least we agree in the $ vs Gold comment.......the charts for last year at ECR and Gold are pretty much Bob on identical, that's no coincidence
Have you seen the Havieron model? It totally eclipses our narrow veins.......its a completely different animal. Not only for gold but for copper too.
I'm not disputing for one second what AH had said, but i think we need to get off 'sniffing the glue' if we think ECR will replicate GGP. It's an apples and oranges situation. Funnily enough I remember a few years ago having a very similar discussion with a very similar user name.
ECR do not have (or at least what is implied in the drilling results) anything compatible in size or potential as Havieron
Can Blue Moon produce multiple narrow veins that have economic recovery cases, certainly......is it going to be responsible for a £500M MCap I think not (think GGP peaked at £1.5B or nthere abouts). Simple mathematics can suggest that ECR won't have the Mega Million ounce resource.
Will ECR hit 4.4p again? Potentially, however that means a £48.5M MCAP, alot bought into here thinking the JV was a done deal, it maxed out at £30M MCAP, buy the rumour sell the news.
It also assumes there are no future raises, do we have 2 or 3 years runway with the asset sales? We will soon find out when the annual accounts are released and we can all see the burn rates.
We are not GGP though, we don't even have the same type of gold mine potential as GGP, so why compare to them? Probably part of the rampy problem here.
ECR had circa £30M MCap at its peak of 4.4p, to get the same market cap now means a share price of around 2.5p.......that's why 4p is unrealistic near term.
If the gold price fails to rise the way I expect in the next 2 months, 2.5p is going to be a long way off never mind 4p