Member Info for giantsquid

I'm actually surprised this so called green revolution hasn't done more for public transport shares. Electric vehicles are out of most people's budgets and if petrol and diesel cars are to be phased out, it doesn't leave much choice other than buses and trains. Maybe it's a sector that will flourish in the future, certainly it hasn't happened yet and there's no real sign people are suddenly ditching their cars for public transport - even with petrol prices high it isn't happening. Infact car sales are booming, particularly the second hand market.

Maybe Oasis would like to see the company offload Frankie and Benny's? It's certainly not as popular as Wagamama. Maybe the company would be better off selling it and investing the proceeds into expanding Wagamama and the pub estate? If Oasis manage some kind of shake up, I suspect the share price would respond positively.

* I was going to post the link regards Oasis/Vodafone but can no longer find it. I'm certain i read about it somewhere, possibly it was another hedge fund. Not that important anyway.

Oasis target companies they believe are particularly undervalued and have a lot of upside potential. It's what they do, it's how they make their money. For them to have taken a position, they will presumably have spotted a means of increasing shareholder value here in a really big way - certainly enough to interest them and want to get involved. What that is, I have no idea. But I suspect they'll have some kind of plan for the company that they'd like to see happen - and we'll probably hear about it over the coming weeks and months. They might even increase their position further. They're activist investors and I think that can on occasion involve ruffling a few feathers in order to get the company in a better place. So we might see a bit of that along the way (or not). They took a position in Vodafone but were unable to bring about the changes they wanted to see - ended up giving up and selling out. So it doesn't always work out for them, but they did a good job of turning around premier foods - they do have quite few success stories and as their primary goal is turning around the company's fortunes in order to greatly increase shareholder value, they're on the side of shareholders and should be seen as a force of good.

Oasis have a track record of investing in companies they believe have a lot of upside potential. They typically target companies that have a low share price which they feel could/should be much higher. They usually target companies they feel could be run better in some way - they often have ideas they feel could add a lot of shareholder value, ideas about the direction they'd like to see the company take. They are activist investors. Typically, once they've taken a position they work on bringing about change or moving the company in a particular direction in order to improve the company's prospects, which in turn leads to a higher share price. They have a good track record - premier foods, for example, saw a huge share price increase following oasis taking a position. Once a much higher share price has been achieved, they typically reduce their position or sell out altogether. From what ive seen, they appear to be a force of good for shareholders - their ultimate goal being to substantially increase the share price by introducing some kind of change or course of action that they feel is necessary to make the company better.

Not sure when the next update is due, but the company is clearly doing pretty well or they wouldn't be opening new sites left, right and centre like they are.

Wagamama is worth at least £600-£700 million (or more) - RTN have opened what looks like many new stores during 2022 and it's clearly a hugely popular restaurant chain. Also a fair few new pubs have been opened recently from what I've seen online. The freehold pubs are worth £160 million+ and the company has nearly £200m net cash. And yet market cap is just £270 million! At these prices this is a steal.

https://www.business-sale.com/news/business-sale/barburrito-acquired-by-the-restaurant-group-at-4x-profits-223287

https://www.barburrito.co.uk/restaurants

https://www.foodbev.com/news/the-restaurant-group-to-acquire-wagamama-for-559m/

https://www.wagamama.com/restaurants/

https://www.wagamama.com/our-menu

https://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/20660657.wagamama-opens-southend-already-hit-community/

https://www.hampshirechronicle.co.uk/news/23054241.winchester-restaurant-wagamama-undergoes-refurbishment-temporary-reduced-opening-hours/

https://www.a1retailmagazine.com/latest-news/wagamama-community-hubs-open-in-london-and-south-restaurants/

Wagamama - Gatwick airport
https://www.gatwickairport.com/at-the-airport/shopping-eating/restaurants/wagamama/

https://eldonsquare.co.uk/stores/wagamama/

https://www.lep.co.uk/business/consumer/wagamama-is-opening-a-new-delivery-kitchen-in-preston-3548851

https://www.essexlive.news/news/essex-news/restaurants-essex-wagamama-confirms-august-7317312

https://www.romfordrecorder.co.uk/news/23029436.opening-date-confirmed-japanese-inspired-restaurant-romford/

https://www.foodserviceequipmentjournal.com/wagamama-opens-new-flagship-london-restaurant-today/

https://www.scrapehero.com/location-reports/Wagamama-UK/

https://www.londondesigneroutlet.com/stores/wagamama/

https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/23208201.opening-date-revealed-norwich-riverside-wagamama/

https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink-news/wagamama-delivery-kitchen-open-huddersfield-23621559

https://www.essexmagazine.co.uk/2022/08/wagamama-announces-opening-of-three-new-restaurants-in-essex-to-meet-local-demand/

https://www.eveningnews24.co.uk/news/business/23026499.wagamama-set-open-new-restaurant-norwich/

https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/wagamama-open-restaurant-upcoming-designer-23297977

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/wagamama-reveals-opening-date-restaurant-040000560.html

https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/whats-on/food-drink/stoke-trent-gets-first-wagamama-7435675

https://www.braintreeandwithamtimes.co.uk/news/19927398.wagamama-coming-braintree-retail-park-countdown-begins/

https://marble-arch.london/eating-out/wagamama/

https://www.manchesterairport.co.uk/at-the-airport/restaurants/wagamama/

https://www.blogpreston.co.uk/2022/01/wagamama-to-open-in-deepdale-this-march/

There's been a lot of chatter about the lack of transparency at Shein. A lack of transparency usually means they're not being entirely honest about the numbers or have something to hide? Even the basis of this company are a concern - such as numerous reports online on reviews sites saying their customer service doesn't even have a phone number and are almost impossible to get hold of when you have a problem.. Google it, the criticisms aren't hard to find. Bottom line, China is a communist country that doesn't necessarily operate to the same standards we do in the west (putting it politely). I would go as far as saying if Shein was to try and float on the LSE, I very much doubt it'd make the grade. Give me Boohoo over Shein any day of the week.

Will the Dow finish green? It's making a bit of a comeback, might see a better day tomorrow.

"Tom Winnifrith thinks a fundraise may be required here"

In 2015, he thought Facebook was going to tank to $5 a share. Instead it went on to hit almost $400 a share...
He was also very bearish about boo in 2015. And look how that turned out over the following few years!

https://www.csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2012/0824/Facebook-is-worth-5-a-share

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/18/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

The current market cap is well below NAV. Once the markets turn more bullish (just as soon as interest rates begin to come down - which should happen before this summer) - this will unquestionably move a lot higher. There's no reason why this won't be back above £1 in the next 6-12 months or so.

It does make you laugh how one day the headlines coming out of America will be "Dow sinks on bla, bla, bla fears"

Then a day or two later, the headlines are "Dow rises on renewed optimism, investor confidence"

The longer you've been in the markets, the more you treat these down days as nothing more than temporary buying opportunities before the next leg up. Which is exactly what they are 99.9% of the time.

The bigger picture is inflation is cooling, interest rates will soon begin to come down and a new bull market is imminent.

Most shares are down today - the fall has little to do with today's update. Had the markets been up, this would have risen on the back of what was a relatively optimistic update. Stocks are down because the Dow fell quite heavily yesterday as retail sales disappointed. What isn't being factored in however is inflation has once again cooled - for the umpteenth time now in a row. And it's that which investors should be most focused on - inflation is rapidly beginning to cool and soon interest rates will begin to come down. And that's great news for stocks. Keep the faith and don't do anything stupid you'll later regret - keep things in perspective and no knee jerk over reactions. Once the new US distribution centre opens, this will jump. After that there's every likelihood we'll be in the beginnings of a prolonged uptrend by early spring.

Boohoo is about to open a massive, brand new US distribution centre right in the heart of Philadelphia - selling just before it opens is madness. It's your choice of course paddy and i wish you well, but I think it's a decision you'll come to regret as this year wears on.

My advice would be to focus on the longer term. Huge new US distribution centre about to open will prove a major turning point for the company. Americans can wait 3 weeks for items ordered from shein or 1-2 days for items ordered from Boohoo, I think we all know which they're going to choose. After 3 years of market turmoil thanks to covid, global markets are finally beginning to turn more bullish. It's still a bit bumpy right now, but stick with it - 2023 is going to be a bumper year for investors particularly from about early spring/summer onwards. You're not going to want to be out.

Worth saying total group revenue today is 6x greater than it was back in 2015 and the company also has 6x more net cash than it had in 2015

2015 prices were in the 25p-40p range

Right now, Boo should be 60p-70p minimum

"The business also benefits from strong asset backing with approximately 50% of our pubs being freehold. In August 2022, our freehold pub estate was valued at £160 million according to a third-party valuation commissioned by the Group"

"Despite the well-documented pressures facing the sector, TRG is confident in our ability to continue to outperform the sector and deliver long-term sustainable growth for our stakeholders:

· We have a strong portfolio of brands consistently out-performing the market

· We have taken decisive action to hedge our utility costs and reduce our interest rate exposure

· We benefit from a strong balance sheet with substantial liquidity"

"The Group has substantial liquidity with £184.2m in cash and cash equivalents, or available facilities at the balance sheet date, and these facilities are committed until at least March 2025"

Billionaire investor says something very positive about the stock market. Sax responds "what's this got to do with us". Go figure. Doh.