Member Info for giantsquid

Nav = total assets - total liabilities

Nav per share is 96p

Shares in issue = 660,400,000

Shares in issue X nav per share = £634m NAV

Put another way, total assets is around £634m more than total debt. And yet market cap is just £180m

Nav is around 3.5 times greater than market cap

BRITISH brewer and pub owner Marston's plans to tie up with Carlsberg UK to create a joint venture worth £780million.

Marston's own 40% of the joint venture which would be around £312m

Property value stated recently as £2.1 billion, representing an increase of £93.4 million

All that versus a market cap of just £179m - whichever way you look at it, 28p a share is massively undervalued. This should be north of £1

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/11686551/marstons-merge-carlsberg-780-million-deal/

It can still be taken as a vote of confidence in the company that an insider is buying. There are no laws against insiders buying stock in their own company as long as they notify the market within 2 days of the transaction, usually an RNS.

Barchild "WRT the mcap & brewery valuation, to most peoples minds is the valuation of the freehold estate fair or not"

Sorry but that's complete nonsense. Mcap is never a reliable valuation of a company. Anyone who knows anything about investment would tell you that. You lost some respect points there my friend. Mcap is perhaps the least reliable indicator of what a company is worth - "in the short term, the market is a voting machine, in the long run it is a weighing machine" - Ben Graham. You don't value a company judging by sentiment/how the market is reacting to the stock. The intelligent investor is quite a complex book to read (I have a copy) but I can assure you nowhere in that book does buffett or graham advise taking mcap as a reliable indicator of what the company is worth - complete the opposite infact. The advise is that the best opportunities are often taking advantage of market valuations that have become detached from reality, oversold, unloved stocks that are way cheaper than what the true value suggests.

I was warning this was heading much lower over a year ago, got relentlessly attacked for posting my opinion and hounded off the board! It's never what you want to hear when you're a shareholder - I do get that. But when you're money is at stake, you really are best advised to at least have an open mind and listen to all sides. The truth, as they say, often lies somewhere in the middle of overly positive and overly negative!

From twitter:

Prigozhin: "Right now the moment has come when blood could be spilled. Therefore, understanding all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our convoy around and going back to our basecamps, according to the plan."

The attempted coup, if that's what it was, appears to be over.

If the Putin government is overthrown and the war in Ukraine declared over, global markets will almost certainly rally. Poly could be a 5 bagger (or more) from the current price, if it were to return to pre conflict prices

At some point this has got to either

(A) start moving up, or (B) flatline

This relentless decline can't go on forever!

If it goes below £3 I'll be investing upto £30K. I'm a homeowner but not bothered about a crash as not thinking of selling anytime soon & I'm on a 5 year fixed rate so not bothered about interest rates either. But I will 100% be investing in house builder stocks if they hit the bottom - these things are highly cyclic, with virtually a 100% likelihood the housing market will go through a boom phase again in the not too distant future. If this goes below £3 it could easily 10 bag over the coming years.

If there is a property crash, could we see 2009 prices again? ie below £3?

I presume none of these negative posters are actual shareholders? I'm not sure what kind of holder talks down his investment? I think we've all worked out who's who on here!

The main influence on the share price here (and pretty much everywhere else at the moment) will be high interest rates and inflation. In the current climate, the assumption is people will be cutting back particularly on non essentials. In reality, the sun is out and people aren't going to stop going out, socialising and enjoying themselves. My local, a Marston pub, is always full. There was loads of people sat outside in the beer garden yesterday evening again. The pubs are seeing a roaring trade in this glorious weather. As soon as inflation finally begins to cool, rates will start to come down and stocks will begin to recover.

"Marsdens assets are probably pledged already against its £1.2 B debts !"

The company has stated 98p nav per share

Nav = total assets - total liabilities

Nav per share = nav ÷ number of shares in issue

It's difficult to dumb this down any further, but total assets is clearly a far bigger figure than total debt, hence the 98p nav per share the company themselves have stated.

Property valuation, according to the company, is £2.1bn

And then there's this :

How much is Carlsberg Marston's worth?

carlsberg marston's brewing company limited Estimated Valuation. Pomanda estimates the enterprise value of CARLSBERG MARSTON'S BREWING COMPANY LIMITED at £495.9m based on a Turnover of £325.9m and 1.52x industry multiple (adjusted for size and gross margin).

There are 7 Marston's pubs not far from me and they're always packed out. And they're really nice places inside and out. I can't speak for your area but clearly Marston's pubs are desirable elsewhere.

Nav per share (NPS) = total assets - total liabilities ÷ number of shares in issue

According to the company, that's 98p a share

Unless their figures are incorrect, then 29p a share is hugely undervalued.

The current price is about as low as it got during the height of covid, before the vaccines were even available. I don't personally think the price should be anywhere near that level in the here and now - covid is behind us, social distancing measures are no longer a legal requirement, the pubs are full, the weather is perfect for beer gardens, parties and barbeques...

And then if you think back to the announcement of the Carlsberg deal, I remember the share price on the morning of the announcement was sat at around 33p. Suddenly it went berserk - and at first, nobody knew what the hell was happening. It hit 50p in minutes, then came the RNS and it hit 70p shortly after. Fast forward to today and it's like the market has forgotten that partnership even exists? Over half the pub estate is freehold, apart from their 1000+ pubs, their beers are sold all over the world in supermarkets including the major UK retailers such as Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury's and Morrisons.

The fact is, sometimes Mr Market gets it wrong and presents rare opportunities.

There'll be plenty of angry investors still stuck in here when the shares get suspended. And they'll have nobody to blame but themselves.

Net asset value (NAV) per share of £0.98 (H1 FY2022: £0.71)

Oh okay, it's been delayed a bit then? It could prove a game changer.

Has the much awaited US distribution centre opened yet? Or do we know when it's opening?