Member Info for Ghostrider007

You are actually quite amusing..Made me chuckle on a sad day.

My impression is that AFC thought they had a commercial product with the L-Series and guided the market towards commercial sales and ramp up.
What then happened is that the customers looking at the L-Series discovered the S-Series and the L-Series was effectively dead in the water.
This has caused a delay as AFC chose to mothball the L-Series and focus on the S-Series and the HFC as a stepping stone.
I believe AFC's Power Tower is their first legitimate, commercial product and the success / failure of the business depends on the company's ability to sell or lease these systems asap. Initial signs are good.
Forget what you may have been told. Forget about the L-Series. Tech moves fast and AFC are into their next generation products already. There should be a flow of interest over the next few months and sales and lease orders announced regularly over the rest of the year.
Exciting!

Careful what you wish for.
We might end up with Williamson, Balchin and Marsden back at the helm. It took them 10 years to take the company nowhere - AB has done pretty well in the last 4 years and while dealing with a long list of unhelpful and annoying shareholders, both at the top and the bottom of the shareholder register.
The current management team is top drawer and if you compare AFC to HUI/PHE you quickly realise how lucky we are to have serious governance and a strong BOD.

I think you will find that a large % of AB's bonus is in lieu of historic options/incentives and was linked to Total Shareholder Return (TSR). ie. it was a formula, not a "gift" and anything must surely be signed off by a host of professional advisors and the BOD. I would imagine that if the share price collapses next year AB's remuneration package will be significantly lower.
His fixed compensation is in line (if not lower) than other companies of a similar size on AIM.

Schroders probably did DW . I'm sorry you didn't, but doesn't mean they don't exist.

I imagine when AB's incentives were agreed the share price was 3-5p and the Mkt Cap £20-30m.
Even if the share price fell back to 20-30p he would have delivered 5-10x returns for shareholders from those levels and is due some recognition for that.
The company was a joke under previous management. AB is worth every penny and if you backed him at 3p and sold at 90p you wouldn't be complaining about him having a few quid in a bonus.
I think he deserves more!

Just checked and couldn't find a Nickel market/product. Which is probably a good thing!

They brought in "targeted hedging" a year ago, from memory. Less conservative than some of the peer group but hopefully they aren't too exposed to current commodity markets.

Bought back in this morning. Easy decision as far as I'm concerned.
Positives are obvious - Loads of cash, ongoing buy-back, good dividend, super cheap on all metrics and exceptional trading environment (VIX +25).

So what are risks? I see three:

1) Russian customers or banking partners frozen out. Although guestimates suggest Russia less than 3% of revenue (assuming not using VPN to trade).
2) Regulation (there is always regulation and this is usually reflected in Plus trading at a discount to IG / CMC etc)
3) The one I worry about. Hedging Oil/Gas/Gold etc.....Is there a risk Plus are on the wrong side of this action. I just hope their risk team were prepared and hopefully Plus may have made some money long commodities.

Investor will be selling Plus to fund losses elsewhere and I'm not concerned that the share price has fallen, it always will in an indiscriminate sell-off.

But, I don't think the current share price reflects the opportunity. The possible reward (2000p near term) outweighs the potential loss (1000p near term). From what I gather February was an all-time record month for some of the peer group.

Has to be an easy decision to buy Plus500. But, would love to hear other points of view.

Everything was explained very well and communicated very well towards the end of last year.

ABB and the other potential customers want the S-Series and Hybrid Fuel Cell system (HFC). Not the L-Series.

ABB have committed £4m in forward orders and development spend in order to accelerate the S-System as fast as possible, but the potential orders that AB was referring to are likely to be pushed out 12 months as a result of the shift to S-Series.

AFC may still be in discussions with multiple partners and may still have a pipeline of c50 live potential orders, but they have said they need a little more time to get the new system ready for deployment.

The good news is that while ABB work on the S-Series it looks like we may get adhoc lease agreements and opportunistic sales of the HFC system which would turn 2022 from an already good year (in revenue terms) into a great year.

I would also suggest that any negative impact caused by the switch from L-Series to S-Series is now reflected in the share price.

This is all very well explained by the company and some of the criticism around communication is unwarranted.

I concur entirely. Nice summary

Thank you and good point. I had forgotten that this was an all-share situation.

AFC are likely to beat consensus guidance this year following the ABB order which would suggest they are tracking ahead of expectations. Any promises you think may or may not have been made is likely to be your own interpretation of what was implied in a quote or update.
For actual guidance please revert to Zeus Capital and WH Ireland for their financial forecasts which have been produced in line with both AIM and FCA directives.
When you do, you will probably view your own expectations in a different light.
The share price has a way of affecting judgement, both positively and negatively.

Have I missed something?
Implied bid at 31p - shares trading at 19p.
Not sure what to make of this.

The ABB order is worth £4m, but paid in two instalments. That accounts for £4m of the £4.5 with £0.5m from a mixture of other sources. There is a strong possibility that AFC will exceed Zeus Capital's forecast for this financial year.

Zeus forecasting £4.4m to the FY 2022 (October year end). AFC, as a Plc, are not allowed to provide revenue guidance.

AIP is the technical term used in the shipping industry. Standard jargon for an engineering design project.

Tin hat on
It's understandable that people are frustrated because the share price is falling
But, the share price never tells the whole story.
Fund managers get judged on 3 year cycles and I think a good method for looking at share prices.
The medium term prospects for this company are fantastic.
I'll probably give this board a miss for a while. But , I do enjoy the ludicrous theories and accusations.
Makes me chuckle

new covid variant scaring global markets - Plus is a great hedge as makes money on volatile markets. It is a good hedge if you are feeling negative. And, its cheap on every fundamental metric.

Long term reader, first time poster.

This is a great Board and some interesting input if you can see the wood from the trees, so thank you. My thought is to do with expectations and a general sense that shareholders/followers are a little confused.

AFC use their broker to provide forward looking guidance, aka "set expectations". AFC are lucky to have Peel Hunt and Zeus Capital advising them. Zeus have forecasts in the market, with Peel Hunt likely to initiate soon.

For anyone looking to gauge whether AFC are meeting expectations, the place to start is the broker note.
To the Full Year ending October 31st 2022 Zeus Capital are forecasting £4.4m of revenue. With the ABB order we already have £2m in the bank and the likelihood of additional milestone revenue this financial year, and that is before anything else we would expect to see over the short term.

Admittedly AFC have never done very well at hitting broker forecasts but that is part of the game with development companies and they are not alone.

But, the market's job is to read the future, not the past, and AFC are well ahead of "expectations" according to their disclosed income for this financial year. ABB have effectively underwritten 12 months of guidance which for some reason has been missed in a post-COP26 sell-off, and wider market issues (inflation/Covid etc..etc).

I would say AFC are well ahead of where the brokers thought they would be (today) and I'm sure the share price will eventually recognise that. If AFC beat Zeus's £4.4m sales target this year they will have achieved something not many development companies have done, including ITM, Ceres and a host of other household names.

I would say I am very happy with progress, even though I am losing money relative. I'm confident we will be part of a £2b company at some point soon. Absolutely no complaints here.