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https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1537692522381729793
Imagine where the oil price would be if sleepy Joe hadn't drained the SPR
https://mobile.twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1537692522381729793
O&W it's hard to say if it's divestment or just a dash for cash to satisfy redemptions given the S&P500 is in a bear market and there is a lot of recession talk. Or it could be something else.
This is not directed at anyone on this board, but I personally feel retail investors put too much weight on their investment/holding hypothesis on whether IIs are significant holders in a stock or are divesting. I've seen so many stocks have an II divest and then it 2 to 10 bag. Most active IIs fail to beat index trackers, though there are some that consistently beat the index that it pays to take notice of.
Regarding the 3 new NEDs buying shares, I don't think anyone are going to pay them much attention as they're a bunch of "diversity" hires.
Here's a chart showing energy stocks decoupling from the rest of the market, though it's a month old.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1523106416722014208
Here's one chart showing energy stocks decoupling from the rest of the market, though it's a month old.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1523106416722014208
The S&P500 is in a bear market. When there is a sell off there there will be a sell off here of varying degrees depending on the sector and the performance of the stocks within that sector.
There will be charts emerging if they've not already of Brent (and oil sector stocks) decoupling from the S&P500.
Then you look at oil's historical outperformance when measured against virtually any other asset class during a high inflation period.
Based on historical precedence the time to get out of commodities is at the peak of the next economic cycle and the time to get back into tech stocks is the recessionary bottom following that peak.
The above is just my opinion. Please do your own research and reach your own conclusions
Many thanks Agadem and thanks to the other poster for calling the fake news out so quickly. It was quite interesting watching the minute chart as it unfolded. I'm assuming it was mostly shorter term traders who got sucked in and are not used to these types of "stories" surfacing every now and then in relation to the company.
At the start of the year everyone was expecting "vile hoards of rampers" etc to arrive on the board, but thankfully apart from today and some random bloke in January they've yet to materialise - in spite of the SP almost doubling. Long may it continue!
I use IWEB and submitted the W8-BEN form to them a while ago and the buggers are still withholding 30% US tax on my dividends. Can anyone please point me to the legislation that says the form also applies to UK listed shares?
IWEB maintain the W8-BEN form only applies to US listed shares.
Many thanks in advance.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biden-Administration-Considers-A-Windfall-Tax-On-Oil-And-Gas-Profits.html
Sleepy Joe is desperate to bring "gas" prices down and I wouldn't be surprised if he tries to push this through, but I'm not sure he's got enough time to before the mid-terms after which he's likely to be a lame duck president and unable (to my best knowledge though please correct me if wrong) to pass legislation without doing a deal with the Republicans who are unlikely to assist him.
A windfall tax in the US would obviously discourage investment in new production and prolong the lack of supply and high prices.
A few on the other board are complaining about JSE being stuck in a trading range, need to pull out from the daily time frame and get some perspective
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Stock&symb=UK%3Ajse&time=11&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=5%2F28%2F2022&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=4&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9&x=41&y=8
Goehring & Rozencwajg latest quarterly newsletter. Always worth a read.
https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q1%20Commentary/2022.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
"Asian and European natural gas prices stand at $35 per mmbtu, versus $8.20 per mmbtu here in the United States. Given the underlying fundamentals that have now developed in US gas markets, we believe prices are about to surge and converge with international prices within the next six months."
"The world has enjoyed a decade of cheap, abundant energy and nowhere has that been truer than in US natural gas. We consume nearly as much energy via natural gas as we do via crude oil, although it is usually an afterthought. The rest of the world is in the midst of an acute gas shortage that has grabbed everyone’s attention. We believe the same is about to happen in the US -- much faster than anyone realizes."
Goehring & Rozencwajg latest quarterly newsletter. Always worth a read.
https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q1%20Commentary/2022.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
"The biggest risk for investors is selling too soon. From the bottom in 2020, the ratio of commodities to the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied by 40%. Using history, we can compare this move to past cycles. The ratio bottomed in December 1968 and by November 1970 had advanced by 40% -- commodities by 10% while the market fell by 16%. Many investors may have wanted to sell at that point; however the rally was just beginning. Over the next nine years, commodities rallied another 156% and commodity stocks rallied another 400%. Had you sold in 1970 after the index advanced 40%, you would have missed 90% of the rally. In 1999, the index bottomed in June and advanced 40% over the next 12 months – commodities advanced by 33% and the market fell by 4%. At that point, oil was $32 on its way to $145, gold was $289 on its way to over $1,000. Over the next 10 years, commodities rallied 150% and resource stocks rallied by 325%. Again, if you had sold in 2000 once the ratio advanced 40%, you would have missed 95% of the rally."
"We are now beginning to understand what a world looks like as it runs out of spare oil pumping capacity. Even with the huge releases of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices have hardly pulled back. Global inventories, now at record lows, continue to draw counter-seasonally and are reaching dangerously low levels. Even with all the dislocations caused by the Ukrainian conflict and COVID problems in China, global oil demand in Q4 will approach global pumping capability according to our modelling. Strong demand, declining production, record low inventories, and now no spare pumping capacity—all these factors will push oil prices higher in the second half of 2022. Even in the face of all these factors, investor interest in energy markets remains incredibly subdued. The advances we have seen to date have basically been short covering and active managers buying on the margin. Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense."
Goehring & Rozencwajg latest quarterly newsletter. Always worth a read. https://4043042.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4043042/Content%20Offers/2022.Q1%20Commentary/2022.Q1%20GR%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
"The biggest risk for investors is selling too soon. From the bottom in 2020, the ratio of commodities to the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied by 40%. Using history, we can compare this move to past cycles. The ratio bottomed in December 1968 and by November 1970 had advanced by 40% -- commodities by 10% while the market fell by 16%. Many investors may have wanted to sell at that point; however the rally was just beginning. Over the next nine years, commodities rallied another 156% and commodity stocks rallied another 400%. Had you sold in 1970 after the index advanced 40%, you would have missed 90% of the rally. In 1999, the index bottomed in June and advanced 40% over the next 12 months – commodities advanced by 33% and the market fell by 4%. At that point, oil was $32 on its way to $145, gold was $289 on its way to over $1,000. Over the next 10 years, commodities rallied 150% and resource stocks rallied by 325%. Again, if you had sold in 2000 once the ratio advanced 40%, you would have missed 95% of the rally."
"We are now beginning to understand what a world looks like as it runs out of spare oil pumping capacity. Even with the huge releases of oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve, oil prices have hardly pulled back. Global inventories, now at record lows, continue to draw counter-seasonally and are reaching dangerously low levels. Even with all the dislocations caused by the Ukrainian conflict and COVID problems in China, global oil demand in Q4 will approach global pumping capability according to our modelling. Strong demand, declining production, record low inventories, and now no spare pumping capacity—all these factors will push oil prices higher in the second half of 2022. Even in the face of all these factors, investor interest in energy markets remains incredibly subdued. The advances we have seen to date have basically been short covering and active managers buying on the margin. Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense."
https://mobile.twitter.com/Josh_Young_1/status/1526581574506094592
I've posted Bison Interests research previously and would thoroughly recommend people check their research out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Josh_Young_1/status/1526581574506094592
I've posted Bison Interests research previously and would thoroughly recommend people check their research out.
https://mobile.twitter.com/daChartLife/status/1526240789906477057
This reflects charts I've previously posted and shows there is a long way to go until O&G shares reach (and exceed) full value. Once the depleted tech and crypto money stops chasing bottoms in these and accepts their time is over for the time being, that money will move to chasing O&G shares as it did in the early noughties. This is the "Great Rotation" as Crescat Capital put it - out of growth stocks and into commodities and value stocks.
It also makes me wonder if the terrible recession the "experts" are predicting that will bring all shares down will really happen and whether we'll get a minor recession as we head in the early noughties, but where commodities shares didn't suffer that much. There is some rhyming going on with this point in economic history.
Separately before the GFC most "experts" weren't predicting a recession and most thought the good times would go on - that's the time to be fearful of a recession, not when your taxi driver mentions it as mine did last week.
Regarding inflation, charts I've seen of inflation in the 40s and 70s show 3 ever growing peaks interspersed with pretty low troughs. Now that the inflationary genie is out of the bottle I wouldn't be surprised if this decade rhymes with those. I also wouldn't be surprised if there is a mild downturn that central banks around the world start printing money and then inflation really gets going
This is just my opinion and is not an endorsement to buy or sell anything.
https://mobile.twitter.com/daChartLife/status/1526240789906477057
This reflects charts I've previously posted and shows there is a long way to go until O&G shares reach (and exceed) full value. Once the depleted tech and crypto money stops chasing bottoms in these and accepts their time is over for the time being, that money will move to chasing O&G shares as it did in the early noughties. This is the "Great Rotation" as Crescat Capital put it - out of growth stocks and into commodities and value stocks.
It also makes me wonder if the terrible recession the "experts" are predicting that will bring all shares down will really happen and whether we'll get a minor recession as we head in the early noughties, but where commodities shares didn't suffer that much. There is some rhyming going on with this point in economic history.
Separately before the GFC most "experts" weren't predicting a recession and most thought the good times would go on - that's the time to be fearful of a recession, not when your taxi driver mentions it as mine did last week.
Regarding inflation, charts I've seen of inflation in the 40s and 70s show 3 ever growing peaks interspersed with pretty low troughs. Now that the inflationary genie is out of the bottle I wouldn't be surprised if this decade rhymes with those. I also wouldn't be surprised if there is a mild downturn that central banks around the world start printing money and then inflation really gets going
This is just my opinion and is not an endorsement to buy or sell anything.