Look, if the really believed in the prospect the senior management would have taken equity instead of salary.
They have been ‘farming out’ for several years and so far have achieved zip. One more year and that is definitely that.
The way these and TRP play the markets is impressive, one has to admit. 1 year extension to do what exactly? Shoot 3D ? I don’t think so. Expect another £1mm raise around Christmas.
Venus imminent so there’s bound to be another kick up on mobilisation announcement and, maybe another tick up on spud followed usually by an almighty crash. Timing is everything.
GBP and TRP are in identical positions in relation to Venus
TRP are actually claiming a piece of the GBP prospect ( see previous RNS last year) so it’s good for both. Can’t see how they can farm out separately though.
I do think if this had a chance they would be announcing the net gas pay from the logs. SDX and Sound did this all of the time …3m here 7m there etc. 1 must have logs and therefore they must be able to see the gas on the logs (if there were any) before paying for a test. It’s dry with gas shows, therefore can’t see the point in drilling 4.
The CPR is nearly 4 years old completely out of date and they are still wheeling it out. Get one that people believe and it’s money well spent as it will up the SP…that is of course if it supports the management numbers.
Seriously why do they keep quoting out of date CPR numbers. ( see below).
Since this report in early 2018 they have drilled wells and acquired a 3D
Where is the update? Ideally from a decent auditor like RPS or Gaffney? It’s misleading Im afraid. Surely they no longer believe these numbers? So why keep trotting them out?
From RNS:
‘It also has 38 MMbbls of gross unrisked 2C contingent resources of oil and 608 Bcf of gross unrisked 2C contingent resources of gas in the Middle, Upper and Lower Eocene formations (Source: CPR Gustavson Associates: 1 January 2018).’.
Do they have the cash to drill #4?
Surely they will test #1 first before deciding?
They don’t mention net gas pay which would normally happen if logs are interpreted. If there’s no net gas pay there’s no point in testing.
Has to be imminent
Could be last gasp for SP action
Expect increase on mobilisation news, uptick on spud then it normally trends down rapidly..Unless the unthinkable happens and Venus finds 2 billion bbls.
Raised £1 mm before charges in April and steadily burning through $1.6 mm per year. Hence out of cash again around year end. Likely need a raise before signing up another year in September.
It is a bit dull but steady
Not sure what the medium term plan is though?
At some point gas production and revenue will start to drop so the partners will need more wells and as I’ve said before a 3D seismic. That may put a dent in profits.
1 ...Discovery of monster ? - but it’s a dry well with gas shows..??
2 ... In benign location/regime - nowhere near a market (Sound had similar problem) so need something big to work.
3 ...By tiddler - true
4 ...with NO DEBT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ( or cash!)
Seriously, if this is the case for the defence then we have a problem.
$6.4 mm in revenue less salaries, less opex less drill costs etc won’t leave much profit if any at all. What’s a non profitable company worth? If it’s Tesla a lot. If it’s a dirty old oil co very little - I’ll wait and see what happens with this well (at least they are using the 3D this time). I do agree it’s silly distracting the team at this point though they should surely wait until the well results come in. Buying 5% of a company and then trashing the share price in an attempt to get some future legal or consultancy fees does seem exceptionally dumb, if indeed that’s the game? How can that work, they are diluting their investment to pay their own fees. Nuts.
282 bopd is 100,000 bbls per year. So it would take 20 years to produce 2mm bbls. But of course the 282 bopd declines each month so on present figures 2021 average will be much less than 282 (250,200 or 150 bopd) perhaps. It would be nice to see a CPR showing which is likely 250 or 150. It is quite key to future profits or lack of. It’s a shame that are focussing on nonsense instead.
So a legal challenge will result in Italy paying for the Nam 3D? Get real chaps..And over 10 years or so said CEO has amassed circa £30k in stock whilst taking millions in salary from shareholders. Same presumably goes for the rest of the team. If their chief geology guy, assuming they have one? is certain about the asset value why has he got zero shares?
They don’t seem very confident that this is a multi bagger.
This needs a raise to take on 2 more years. You know it’s coming. Then they need around $10mm for a 3D…
Why would this 5% crew be any less keen to see the SP rise than the rest of us? I don’t get the argument at all, surely some scepticism of the boards decision making is warranted given the shambles of the last 18 months.