Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Very useful
Less than a minute. More like a 3 second super spike. My ShareScope gave a "Big riser 20%+" alert and I thought great.
Might be getting held back to fill order?
Certainly no big spike at open like many predicted.
I should have paid more attention to the RNS when they pleaded "we don't see any reason why our trading request shouldn't be granted".
RNS says trading halted but charts look like still trading.
Any information?
Yes, obviously the shares cost more / are worth less because it was a discounted placing with 20% dilution.
It brought in much needed funds and was significantly oversubscribed.
Great news about Leeds Bradford. Once the travel restrictions are lifted these will be £14 - £15 in no time, above where they were before the placing.
Happy Days.
Jet2 raised £422m in placing at £11.80 per share representing a discount of approx 9.1%.
Significantly oversubscribed.
The Leeds Bradford Airport Approval timing is no coincidence. It's a brilliant move by this brilliant company.
Government keep telling us its "illegal" to go on holiday. Yesterday they say "don't book any holidays". Jet2 will loose all those Easter holiday makers.
Jet2 decides to cover themselves with a placing to strengthen their position. Go on, tell me you can't arrange a share placing that quick. But I tell you you can.
With no Thomas Cook and EasyJet holidays not yet fully established Jet2 bookings will be sky high the second lockdown ends.
They do still have bills to pay but with all staff furloughed and a tiny fuel bill they will easily survive this.
Anyone who has been on a Jet2 package Holiday will know how fantastic their service is.
Good point about Hays.
As for the 20%, I did say this was a guesstimate. One fifth dilution so I took one fifth off the current share price. Like I say, even with current downside I think Jet2 have a good future, but who knows what the discount will be.
It is actually good to see the government not lifting restrictions too early to try and ensure there isn't another lock down in October.
It is good that private investors will get the same price as the big institutions. As with many book builds you do not get to know the price until the book build is complete. It's safe to assume it will be less than today's price. The RNS said max 20% dilution. If you take 20% off today's price (£13) you get around £10.40 This is just a guesstimate.
If you think a tenner is good value (they were £25 before COVID19) then you buy.
The risk is that if holidays are cancelled for most of this year they could drop to £8 or £6. Can you believe there were actually £2.50 in March 2020!
I have been on holiday with Jet2 many times and they are a fantastic company who will recover, especially now Thomas Cook ate no more but it might take a while before people are booking holidays again.
Also, Hays Travel, who took over many Thomas Cook stores and who took on many Thomas Cook staff will also be struggling and could well go out of business leaving Jet2 with a potentially much bigger market share.
It's definitely not calculated after the last payment, you pay as you go. Like I say, if the share price doesn't fall much it shouldn't be a major issue. The company are, after all, drawing down a loan facility to allow them to expand the business and this is the price they pay for doing that.
Obviously the ideal situation is they pay the agreed amount for the loan facility and are not paying any of the penalties.
If this does get to 2.5 it might be worth a punt.
Also, for anyone still unsure about the death spiral, here's the relevant part from the RNS. As an example, price is down roughly 11%. Not much, but 11% of each £540,000 tranche is £60,000. And they have 12 tranches. 12 x £60k is £720k. There is also a clause about an additional 20%, so the costs go up significantly as the share price goes down.
From RNS
In the event the Company's share price decreases between the date following a conversion notice being issued by the Investor and admission of the shares to trading on AIM (the "Pre-admission Period"), the Company shall pay an amount to the Investor equal to the difference multiplied by 20 per cent. of the total volume of ordinary shares traded on AIM over the Pre-admission Period.
9.5% dilution as things stand
09 Feb 2021 11:58
48m new shares from Primary Bid offer. £1.59m
195m new shares from Loan Notes. £6.4m
That's 243m new shares but not until all of the above is complete. Loan notes will take several months to have full dilution. There are 2.55bn shares now so 243m is 9.5%.
9.5% dilution isn't actually that bad. I've seen a lot, lot worse.
The problems start IF the price of the shares fall. Melody will have to make up the difference. That's where the phrase "death spiral" comes from.
The more the shares fall, the worse you are doing but you need to pay more.
Notice also once the conversions start they have to keep drawing and can only leave 21 days between tranches. Once you draw you must draw until complete.
Again, not an issue so long as the share price is 3.3p or above.
I always Post what I have to say under my own account just in case anyone was wondering.
I thought zoros was referring to the frustration in my post at the weekend.
So the elections have taken place.
Bid on the way then.
Analysts at Liberum lowered their target price on mining outfit SolGold from 55.0p to 39.0p on Tuesday after the group again delayed publication of a pre-feasibility study.
Liberum noted that SolGold has pushed back the publication of a pre-feasibility study to late 2021, electing to do further work to address alternatives and potential upsides.
In the analysts view, the delayed release implied a large capex increase and a longer time to first production, leading it to reduce its price target on the stock by 30% to 39p.
However, Liberum highlighted that with most of the bad news "likely out of the way" and fresh management coming into the business, it still expects a bid once the Ecuadorian elections have passed, representing 73% upside to the stock's current price.
Let's hope a bid comes. I like the sound of 73% upside.
When are the Ecuadorian elections?
Avoiding Primary Bid wouldn't bring in any money for the company.
Remember a "raise" is to raise funds. Melody don't get anything from shares purchased on the open market.
48m new shares from Primary Bid offer. £1.59m
195m new shares from Loan Notes. £6.4m
That's 243m new shares but not until all of the above is complete. Loan notes will take several months to have full dilution. There are 2.55bn shares now so 243m is 9.5%.
9.5% dilution isn't actually that bad. I've seen a lot, lot worse.
The problems start IF the price of the shares fall. Melody will have to make up the difference. That's where the phrase "death spiral" comes from.
The more the shares fall, the worse you are doing but you need to pay more.
Notice also once the conversions start they have to keep drawing and can only leave 21 days between tranches. Once you draw you must draw until complete.
Again, not an issue so long as the share price is 3.3p or above.
That actually made me smile.
What is, is.
You can buy at 3.2p now. Less than the offer.
When BCN raised funds on 2nd Feb they had an RNS out at 7am the very next day to announce how successful the Primary Bid offer had been.
I notice there is no RNS from Melody.
Opened at 3.55p now at 3.3p. Down 8% already.
Worrying...
Closed at 9pm.
Anybody could have bought into this at 3.3 pence any time last week, lower on most days.
Don't think it will be fully subscribed, but promise to say I was wrong if it is.