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"pipeline of growth opportunities ...."
that's wrong to say that. When you bid for contracts the conversion rate is a usually a small fraction, unless the market is seriously underserved
"but the sellers wanted Cosmen/Alsa to have it ,"
everybody in Spain / Portugal in the transport business must know each other and the Cosmens.. Its a bit cosy and why not..
Cosmens' man.......
Ignacio has more than 28 years’ strategic, commercial, operational and business transformation experience in the freight and logistics industry. Previous roles include CEO Spain & Portugal and CEO Brazil at TNT and Senior Vice President for Southern Europe, France and Benelux at FedEx. He has a track record of leading international, complex, operational businesses to achieve clear strategic purposes, adopting an inclusive management culture in doing so aided by his focus on people.
Ignacio has a degree in international business from the American University of Paris and a postgraduate diploma in management and business studies from the University of Warwick.
This company needs to be more software process driven. Its got 44,000 employees and they can't all be driving buses
Other big outfits with lots of staff are doing this. On BA / Terminal 5 Heathrow its impressive how the check-in process has been redesigned. At some point they are going to get rid of everybody working there and use facial recognition to manage the process. You won't even need a boarding pass
MCG needs fresh thinking in this respect. The high cost of wages and staff shortages require greater productivity. That requires new management. Maybe MCH should get some Chinese consultancy, that's probably where the bleeding edge in managing people is right now.
Oh man he says he doesn't understand what happened with the German regulator.. what a waste of time
"likely"
I bet the people haven't read the small print
LSE may be in a death spiral but Insurance seems fine
Insurer Lloyd's of London swings to $13.5 billion profit in 2023
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/insurer-lloyd-s-of-london-swings-to-13-5-billion-profit-in-2023/ar-BB1kFJSb?ocid=msedgntp&pc=DCTS&cvid=1d614622d1604b3b8b314b891c6801e6&ei=6
Yes a diversified portfolio these days means NYSE and NASDAQ as well
PC: "The grants/subsidies on German Rail are being cut back,"
source for this . It seems very likely as Germany is running huge budget deficits
I wonder what the exposure (to subsidy) for the UK is? That would be UK buses not coaches. They can't just raise bus ticket prices to compensate not when there is a General Election nearby
Interestingly FGP has this issue as well - what if all their lovely rail contracts disappear with Rail nationalisation ?
"To me it seemed like they tried to keep everything focussed on why they pushed back the earnings release rather than going into details on outlook or other things."
I think that's the correct approach. It would be possibly misleading to make empty statements about a "potential" sale process . It happens when it happens
It is trading on the NASDAQ with the ticker DJT - unbelievable !! . YTD its 234% up
Several people yesterday (and the day before) said they had bailed out of this low margin socially useful public service utility with high ESG credentials ( apparently) .. I'm sure they would be looking at different investment opportunities
I wonder how Trump would handle the German regulators ..
Trump Media & Technology Group have surged more than 40% in its debut on the Nasdaq. It’s now up nearly 100% over the last 5 days and 375% in 2024.
I don't think this company is comparable to RR.
RR has a huge installed base of aircraft engines which it has service contracts for.. This is proprietary tech
It still is a leading engine manufacturer - there are only 3 engine manufacturers - General Electric, Pratt and Whitney and RR. Now airline would like to see RR go bust - they need at least 3 competent suppliers
Its a pretty irreplaceable and it would come roaring back.. This is my analysis in hindsight of course. Should have moved into RR from MCG in the beginning of the year, but even now there is still room to grow there
MCG is similar to services and retail companies like MKS . Its got a strong brandname and well positioned in markets .. It can bag multiple times from here but lets be under no illusions. If it goes bankrupt that's it
It depends on the strength and discipline of management to hold its position and grow the business . That's why the inability to agree and present FY results gets a downgrade . its just a bad look . I think that happens because many places are becoming difficult to do business in , but also MCG took over rail franchises in Germany without having a long term strategy here > What's it supposed to achieve ? This is one downside - bad regulatory environment ..There is absolutely nothing you can do about it except withdraw (over the long term)
Downratings from inability to present final year results because of disagreements with the auditor - after all this time
it looks like management have not got a grip
Nobody at MCG has the brains to understand German regulator cost indexing . Those guys have at least a Phd in statistics , maybe 2.. A German with two PhDs can be called Herr Doktor Doktor
Some recovery in share price and its better to watch and wait IMO (aka HOLD)
This is a provision specific to Germany.. I think the costs indexing and recovery will be in MCG and other operator's favour.. They release FY2023 and then do an update later on saying the results need to be revised upwards :-)
PC: I dont see a Takeover and a US Bus sale happening in the same timescale...
agreed
"Whilst it is the Group's expectation that the models used to calculate the profitability of the German Rail business remain valid, further work is now required to determine the full effect of the revised indices. "
I think this could go either way and its not a bad thing. Energy prices have been turbulent and possibly MCG might get a better recovery of costs with the new Index.. But being German its super complicated and takes time to understand
so they have provisioned worst case but IMO this is unlikely. Overall energy costs have increased and they need more cost recovery from the authorities . They can publish a revised guidance even after 2023 results but i think it will be much better than what they are provisioning for
Takeover !
Takeout will be 150p IMO