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"How much of a drop would that cause, any thoughts?"
the shorters must think quite a bit
that could be the reason for the recent increase in shorts
So you predict another 2% rise tomorrow ?
we should be blessed :-)
Another false dawn , what a surprise :)
The market wont drag this up that's for sure , . Marginally, but not what we want
Could be, but this company is not dependant on any sale of asset .it just needs some good results to provide a sense of direction
Some investors ( Neil Woodford) as "cheerful" about the UK economy and believe the market will experience a cyclical upturn
Others take anything Neil Woodford says as a "time to short" signal . Some investors / analysts believe the UK market is over valued and are shorting . So the likes of MCG is getting caught up with this thinking
Others ( Cosmens ??) believe MCG has faced the worst of the market downturn or possibly was one of the first to get hit by this "overvaluation" and a correction is now due . But that can only happen if MCG reports a good set of results . The macro wont pull it up
The reporting is with a time lag. They tried to push it down but looks like someone is buying. Maybe they will try again
why does someone see this as valuable, but the shorts think it should be 40p? That is the conundrum
Sneedway: "Looks like Labour took it, news just broke. The candidate stated he wants Birmingham bus services to go into public control......Perhaps not a bad way to dispose of a failing asset..."
lets spin the positive - hope there is a change in the status quo which forces MCG to dump this, or run the network on cost plus profit terms like the railways
Arriva in London operates 18% of the bus network , NEX here in the Midlands operates 90% . I think they are going to break it up.. It will likely mean worse services for commuters ( higher prices or reduced services) but as they say elections have consequences
" West Midlands. IMO West Midlands needs MCG/NEX far more than MCG needs them. "
no company gets in a confrontation with government like that . The preferred option is to establish "dialogue", thats why Andy Street seems to be a good guy for NEX
Sorry should have made it clear - WM Mayor is important for NXWM
The Mayor of the West Midlands is a directly elected political post who chairs the West Midlands Combined Authority, covering the local authorities serving Birmingham, Coventry, Dudley, Sandwell, Solihull, Walsall and Wolverhampton.
The Mayor is responsible for franchised bus services, allowing for standardised fares and branding on all bus services in the county, similar to how London's bus network operates.[5] The Mayor is also responsible for the West Midlands Key Route Network, which is managed by Transport for West Midlands on behalf of the Mayor.[6]
This is an intensely political environment . We may have to wait for the elections to be over
Looks to be Andy Street again as Labour vote split due to their Gaza position
I think he seem at least sympathetic to NXWM .. Who knows
"I prefer to stick to fairly easy to understand business models. This should be one of those. You run coaches & fill them with people at fares which are high enough to cover the costs (driver wages; fuel; depreciation etc) & you add a 15-20% premium on for your margin & that is it."
you're thinking of a steady state business, which is an ideal state of affairs.
All business of any size are complicated. What is the margin when the bus runs empty? You have to generate a composite margin figure. Thats only possible if bus utilisation is predictable and repeatable. It worked well before COVID but the aftermath of the pandemic has been a giant disruption. People don't want to go back to regular routines, interest rates are high, inflation is high, fuel costs are high and so on, Basically pre 2019 was an idea business climate for MCG, nowadays not so much. There is always the danger of something happening that will upset figure and forecasts
"Also if the new CFO arrived & made a statement regarding her plan of action & the SP went from today's SP to say 80p in a day. Would you sell all your shares there & then?"
Other that announcing a NA sale that is highly unlikely. The accounts are pretty complex and its difficult to state a plan of action that drive the SP up in a day to 80p... Its a non serious statement to make
Reply
It's easy to blame the management but I think its more about macro economics and a poor business model (that was set in place before the present CEO and CFO). As an investor I didn't read this right .. Some people also have outdated views on British business these days
I think Cosmens are just averaging down as much as anyone else .. They just buying when there is a new all time low
Payback for accepting the strike terms. Its good money but it depends if it is enough, which we don't know. If it is the unions will come back asking for more
I'm beginning to think that this company works in such highly politicised areas that everything has to be a secret.
"within 2025 of having some economic direction and stability would be a better option for making any decisions to split and sell these divisions"
I don't know. Labour Party with a super majority :shudder:
There isn't much political stability prospect in the US with Trump or Biden
Business needs to plan for all contingencies
It does go back to the name change which suggests a secret plan
National Express was a buyout of the National Coach Company ( this was a state run operation back in the good old days) . They bought West Midlands Travel and rebranded it National Express West Midlands.
The National Express brand has huge intangible value and has no impact outside the UK . It does make it easier to split off, because that's what you are selling.
We shall see - In the goodness of time
Anything in the Spain / Portugal zone is (or will be ) good business and Cosmens probably have the market all sewn up.
It's the other areas which are a bit worrying
The Canary Islands project looks a good one
No problems with that. It looks like they want to provide more bus services instead of hire cars . Maybe these things need to run for a while
"pipeline of growth opportunities ...."
that's wrong to say that. When you bid for contracts the conversion rate is a usually a small fraction, unless the market is seriously underserved