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IMO the School Bus business will be sold on its merit (steady cashflow) and accounts. They wont care about ALSA impairments or West Midlands Travel and its politics. Its good to be insular. . Maybe the size of the business will give it added value .. There must be some advantages to common maintenance , repair and operations . Plus procurement of buses
We took a profit warning in UK and Germany.. That's from withdrawal of COVID subsidy, passenger numbers not recovering post COVID, and fares not being revised with inflation for many years. The recent revision still leaves them too cheap. So what are they doing about it?
IMO we can compare and contrast MCG with Arriva. Arriva has a slightly smaller headcount than MCG and it was on sale since 2019. It apparently was stagnating under DB and also losing money in London buses just like MCG in West Midlands :-)
Deutsche Ban sold Aviva buses for Euro 1.6 Billion to private equity . Private equity see value in these kind of businesses because they have a pedro like analysis (eco friendly transport and so on) . Does that mean we will be all forced off cars ?
I think Cosmens have put a backstop to any panic sale or share price crash.. MCG is stagnating under the current BOD and needs new management
"Expertise is not exclusive to COPL lol…you may wish it dead, but that is your opinion, others will know and think differently, it makes sense. Watch this space I’d say"
Development expertise is considered company IP and worth something.. The industry respects and pays for that. . I don't wish COPL dead, that is your opinion. If you cant follow the conversation best to stay out of it
"Maintain the Company's LSE & CSE public listings while the Company works with the senior lender and professional advisors to determine the best path forward for all the Company's stakeholders."
the SL didn't decide to cut its losses and go for a fire sale .. More time was bought at the expense of shareholders but the first scenario would have been total wipe-out
It looks like they need outside consultants to throw some light on what the assets are worth because whatever COPL has done cant be trusted .. Which is a fine state of affairs
"My advice - don't rule out anything here. Everybody in the company knows these assets are worth way more than the debts attached. Keep up the fight for fair value."
Fair point but the JV is dead... COPL was to sell itself as having expertise in developing these fields . The story around the GGS and COPLs expertise is fishy but lets say it failed
I think its possible to market these assets as something that big operators need to develop and shoestring outfits like COPL just cant do it .. Depends how good this Kravitz guy is , but yeah we need a smooth talking salesman .. First it was Art , Now its Kravitz.. Second time lucky
OK no JV any more . COPL doesn't have anything to contribute with the failure of the GGS
Maybe it can keep a share in the assets ?......
No more JV , probably outright sale of assets to the former JV partner.
Would you JV with a shady outfit like COPL
Cosmens!
"Today is a simple ‘debt interest’ fear from interest rates that may not be declining as quickly as some had hoped."
lets hope the BOD wasn't using that expectation as a strategy :-) .. It feels like this share is being shorted, worst performer on my watchlist by far . We should soon know hopefully
I respect all views but not generic ramping and the "power of positive thinking " . Pedro you've several times stated the board has addressed all problems . Obviously the market doesn't think so especially today..
TITSA is going to have to concede some of its operations to ALSA
Shortened version of post below :-)
Thanks wealthtansfer
After reading the article it looks a complex situation
The Canary Island bus operations (scheduled services that attract subsidy ) are controlled by a company called TITSA ,which is state owned I think
It seems the Island governments are opening up bus operations and ALSA is moving in . This company they are buying (el Grupppo) is a tour operator (doesn't do scheduled bus operations) but it seems a good business with its own maintenance assets and so on .. The price is up to 80 million Euro so hopefully less than that
Obviously Cosmens see this aa a growth opportunity , and perhaps they are right . it certainly looks like the Islands want to grow scheduled bus operations
Whats the problem with this deal?
is it over valued? How was it valued ? Is it just another bus company ?
Does it work well with the rest of the ALSA empire ?
Somebody mentioned this earlier that today will be a good test.. We have had a late afternoon rise without the US markets being open .. That doesn't mean they can trade on the LSE but professional traders would be unlikely to work from home .. Best to take the day off ...
"The profit warning was because fares did not go up fast enough in a bout of high inflation. That has been addressed"
where is evidence / or link ?
US bus may be worth a lot of money ( for reasons mentioned by poker) but that valuation doesn't not necessarily extend to the rest of the MCG empire. It may or may not , but its not a given
MCG is looking like the sum of parts is worth more than the whole.. US School Bus and Services working as a coherent entity is worth a lot of money as a spinoff. The MCG model was built up in the pre 2019 era - with low interest rates, inflation and macro economic stability.. Trouble now is as soon as you fix one part of the empire, another part may generate a profit warning ....
"Lol isn't this the irony, if this survives, raises at 0.15p and then starts to go up from there, there will be a load of investors who bought at the bottom that will be bagging on their shareholding,"
if it helps, very few will even bag - they will sell out before hand
anybody who will say they bought at 0.035 and sold at 0.15 is full of it
how many bagged today?
If the SP drops 30% every day the trend (curve actually) will resemble an asymptote,, where it comes close to zero, but never quite getting there
Latino
no production plan no funding, you would think. The RNS was very sketchy on why they are keeping this as a going concern. 2.5 million is certainly not enough to solve this crisis
Is it simply to get a better sale ?
Yes controlled exit from short position :-)
"Going electric has a myriad of negatives, so how will you get around?"
you wont - commodities, food items etc will be sourced locally.. I have a high street within walking distance - all shops that were dying will reopen .