Little has changed28 Jan 2020 15:57
The only change since the EPS start up is that the water cut on one well has increased to 25-30%, above the original model for AVERAGE perched water, but not all that unusual early in production start up.
The company is clearly unconcerned, saying on 13 Dec "The productivity performance of each well on an individual basis is in excess of the Company's pre-start-up expectations.
The Company is confident that the water cut observed is related to perched/stranded water, based on temperature data, lack of rate-dependency, and water production behaviour after shut-in periods."
What has changed is that dspp has been taking some limited data points on TLF and constructing a model which uses the WC to posit a much reduced reservoir, oil volume, and possibly a permanently higher water cut.
All this not helped by the coronavirus fears.
All I can say is that RT and HUR are the world's best FB geo team, and AFAIK no other company has the same level of understanding, modelling, experience, or interpretive skills as they do.
dspp? Well, we don't know ; he's clearly knowledgeable, but does not have access to the data, not experience, of HUR and DR T.
So for him to be right, the world's experts in FB must be wrong, as must be experts from outside agencies like the CPR providers, as must be the geos representing Kerogen, CA, and others. That's possible ; but how likely is it?
the mere possibility has clearly spooked nervous PIs and created a self fulfilling downward price spiral, based on a potentially high impact, but (imho) unlikely event. Oh, and just for good measure, dspp's latest post says " I still hold with no movement.".
Go figure.
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