Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Yeah ein but we weren't diluted to hell at 24p. And shares that go from 30p to 3p can also still continue on from 3p to 0.3p. But my view is that MNG would rather have s/h pay for the kit than pay themselves (well technically they have done already but they intend to sell it on to AUE) so the most financially advantageous way to do this with minimal dilution is to equity raise at as high an sp as possible.
Bryn is correct. MNG have said they will UNDERWRITE a future equity placing. Some on here seem to have understood that to mean that MNG would issue themselves more shares at a knockdown price. This is not correct. What this does mean is that they will make another placing either as an open offer to all existing s/h (i.e. us and everyone else who holds shares inc II), or via brokers ("bucket shops" as well as the NOMAD) to interested parties such as HNW individuals, IIs etc. Either way, any placing below what MNG paid would dilute their holding, so I see this as unlikely. They have deep pockets so there's no reason to believe they would be desperate. On the other hand, AIM is a murky cesspit of nefarious activity, so who knows what connection some HNW individuals have to MNG, nor what games might be played to get shares on the cheap. It's not free money at these levels. Also, things can continue to go belly up from a cost perspective, and the sp could drop lower before a placing, making a placing at even lower than today's level undersubscribed and allowing MNG to hoover up shares even cheaper than before. I've picked up some more shares cheaper than I sold but only by 1p, leaving me still massively down but only slightly less so. The reality is that without a huge boost to gold, this isn't going to get above 5p unless any news is amazing. I doubt that's going to happen. I guess my current view is that this is a dog with fleas, but the market has it priced as a dog with fleas, ticks and possibly rabies. I took the same view with XTR last week and have since made 50%. October could see a rerate here too - but even 10p looks like pie in the sky sadly.
Nothing is "happening" - the sp has fallen far, fast. Shares don't go up or down in straight lines. And do we really think a measly 4% gain is something to see as a sign of behind the scenes wonders? The bid is still 2.75p, remember. As it has stabilised, I have taken a further 50k now on offchance it starts an upward ascent and this is the bottom. However I expect this on balance to go to 2.5p before next news, will average down then further.
Hi Bryn re your "Hi SAm" post - "Q4 will almost certainly be positve and Q3 will probably show at least 1 month of positive earnings I will add a few when I think IFC are sold out..." I think I am aligned with your view. Although I cannot see my future exposure even approaching what I had here until recently.
Yeah still here pal. Sold 400k immediately after news managed to get 3.5p average across sipp and isa. Still holding 100k on off chance of a sentiment change but on balance expect this to revisit 2.5p - momentum is down with II selling. I didn't highlight this at the time as didn't want to contribute to the negativity/panic on the board. Not sure I would buy more even at 2.5p as risk of getting locked in here long-term if MNG decide to keep sp low with flow of bad news while issuing endless equity to themselves under cover of "working capital requirements". With no IIs left to protect us PIs from nefarious activity from MNG, what is to stop the bod from running this down to 1p for example, then making a bid for 1.5 (hey it's a 50% premium to the sp!) which no-one has enough shares to block? Not saying that will happen but I've had enough disappointment here to not wish to lose more than the £15k I'm already down. Anyone who says this is a raging buy is being reckless. Yes I recognise that great risk can equal great reward but it's now more a punt than ever.
Vicky after all the help you have had on here from LTH both on terms of understanding AUE and gold mining in general, that's an incredibly ungracious thing to say. I'm disappointed in you.
Apologies guys, must have been the Official David Reading Voodoo Doll (TM) I purchased from Liberian eBay a couple of months back. Seems the effects are both delayed and not completely accurate. Don't worry, I'll reverse the hex, but it's going to take me until at least tomorrow evening to take all those pins out...
About three RNS ago
Yeah like they said mine up and running mid June? I don't doubt your integrity Noodle but I trust anyone at AUE rather less than I'd trust Sweeney Todd to give me a hot towel shave. Under AIM rules they have three months to release half year results. That's Sept 30. I hope it comes sooner but am resigned to again being locked in here for longer when money could be working elsewhere.
Did you look at the number of trades today? There's no sp rise if there's no buying pressure! The MRs don't dictate the price, the market does! Right now, the market isn't interested in AUE. Even speculators staying away, because low liquidity = low volatility = low possible returns. All you can do is wait. Q2 results by end of September.
Indeed, sir.
Thanks Noodle for taking the time to go into more detail, that's very helpful. Have a good weekend.
Good post rhertig and I agree with your first few sentences, it needs nerves of steel sometimes yet a depressed sp is where the biggest gains are to be made. Had you only invested here in October last year and bought and sold on the signals of bottoming and topping out (I.e after swift moves down/up the sp stayed level for more than three days) this would have been a 6-bigger by now. Not bad at all! But regarding RNS frequency, that's not entirely true. Yes you are right that many juniors flood you with bs fluff of jam tomorrow stories, but equally there are many whose bods silently run their companies into the ground while sucking a fat salary as long as they can. And there are others who provide very regular RNS on lots of things which are helpful and relevant to investor insight, and which help the sp. Probably the best example, which many on here will hold and recognise what I'm saying, is RRS (not a junior of course but a great example of a gold miner with a CEO who thinks keeping s/h informed is a core obligation of the box of a company).
Good work Noodle and totally appreciate what you're saying with regards to disclosure. A few questions to clarify if I may? Did they say that reagents were on site? Is the processing plant now in operation if only for gradual ramp up?
Well done and thanks Noodle. RE the lack of an update, I think the comparison a little unfair between Mng and DR. DR lied and blundered his way from an mcap of £300m down to just £15m, a staggering achievement of incompetence even by mining industry standards. MNG have already realised s/h value of about 50% gains for anyone buying in roughly same time as them. Also they are probably busy completing the inspection of under the bonnet and getting stuff running again plus planning ahead for ordering such inconsequential items as reagents. Finally, MNG have no real moral obligation let alone regulatory to update us yet - they are not responsible for what has gone before. I really hope to see an update next week, but on AIM you have three months after half year reports so technically no need to update before end of September.
Me too - Thomas at MySpace and The Fat Controller at Friends Reunited have both said the same: full steam ahead! Seems our ducks are lined up. Anyone heard from Percy?
Ah, Ironfish - that's the other option. ;) But I think the spread is usually marmalade, or Marmite, or sometimes a bitter compote. But I don't remember having jam. Mind you, I think they put that on the menu for tomorrow?
Who is benefiting? And are the shareholders paying for the difference? Absolutely, every time a share that was bought is sold, it reduces the market cap by 0.2p, and to mitigate this the Liberian workers are forced to each work an extra 3 minutes a week, which adds up I tell you, in order to maintain the price to earnings ratio versus net asset value, allowing for impairment against return on capital employed (the $30m from MNG). Any shortfall is covered by shareholders especially Private Investors who pay 1.14x that of MNG due to FO factor. If you raise a petition to David Netherway, I'll sign it! Though personally, I blame Brexit.
Fair enough and no legal requirement even to release quarterly results. I'm sure I read somewhere that AUE would keep s/h up to date quarterly/within 30 days of q end. but maybe wrong. With new ownership, who knows we may have moved without knowing it to just a single annual report. Can't recall what AIM requires but certainly isn't quarterly. Roll on November as a minimum then.
...my sofa is crammed full! ;)