Rachel Thieves adds ÂŁ10bn extra a year to interest bill8 Jan 2025 14:33
“The Treasury’s debt interest bill is likely to be about £10bn a year higher than official forecasts after the sell-off on bond markets, according to economists.
Deutsche Bank said the rise in gilt yields mean the “razor thin headroom left in the Autumn Budget has likely all evaporated”.
Senior economist Sanjay Raja said that based on current market expectations, the Government’s net interest costs would be about £10bn more per year by the end of this parliament in 2029/30, compared to the forecasts in the Budget in October.
He added that the situation has been made worse by Britain’s weaker than expected growth, after the gross domestic product (GDP) was downgraded from 0.1pc to 0pc for the third quarter and declined by 0.1pc in October.
He said: “GDP growth will likely be revised lower from its optimistic 2pc projection for the current calendar year. Inflation too will almost certainly be revised higher – adding to debt costs.
“And the OBR’s unemployment projections will also likely rise further than previously anticipated, given recent survey data.
“What does this mean for the fiscal outlook? Spending cuts, more borrowing, and likely a little more taxation to close the emerging fiscal hole.
“Indeed, the forthcoming Spring Statement, Spending Review, and Autumn Budget will likely be painful sequels to the Chancellor’s historic inaugural budget.”
Labour’s disastrous economic policies laid bare.