Member Info for GaryJ

Quick update .. FCA numbers for Dec have been published .. Jun 262 Jul 250 Aug 271 Sep 298 Oct 324 Nov 398 Dec 366 309.8571429 120.8442857 Run rate for 7 month m.avg is now 120 m per month .. The year end results stated that as of 31st Dec after new 0.6 bn provision they have 2.4 bn .. Therefore as per my calcs new run rate based on FCA and Lloyds 39 % of industry total of 120 m x 20 remaining months to the Aug 2019 deadline = �2.4 bn. If trend continues to decrease from Nov peak ~( Dec 32 m lower than Nov ) then they will have a surplus at the end.

As of end of Oct when Q3 numbers were published, Lloyds were holding 2.3 bn PPi prov. Or enough to pay out 104 million a month 2.3bn / 23 months = �104 m per month. Lloyds account for 38 % of all PPI claims. The six month moving average ( to Nov ) of all industry claims as per FCA is 300 million per month. 40 % of that is Lloyds or �120 m a month. So at current run rate ,and this includes three months of higher post Arnie FCA adverts in Aug, Lloyds need 2.6 bn to cover claims if rate remains the same or put another way a further .3 bn on top of what they have ( 2.3 bn at end of Oct ) in reserve right now. Now, you could argue that the run rate will diminish as we get nearer the deadline and we have peaked at �398 per month ( FCA total for industry in Nov) . Or, will the ambulance chasers still manage to drum up even more claims. Personally I see the trend slowing - a lot less nuisance calls now. Also as I understand it , with the accumulation of past claimants data on record now vast, the Banks are knocking a much much larger number of bogus claims as they have much past data to check on. Also the FCA do analysis on claims data and claimants and are able to help indentify bogus claims. Lloyds may well make the call and provide for another .5 bn, but I don�t see it rising too much more than that

Well we will have to agree to differ but those who were 'materially affected by the benefits' of being in EU are for sure not going to be materially better off out either..

Uncertainty is a large part of it and this has hit sentiment badly in the fin sector. The other factor of course for AV, SL and the bank is the commercial property exposure ( Av property funds ) where there has been huge slump in overseas demand and therefore prices. I don't see this recovering beyond current levels in the near term until we start to see what is on the EU negotiation table.

With regards this forum and the rights and wrongs of discussing political issues in this case it is wholly justified. The result of Brexit had a profound and brutal impact on Aviva SP circa 25 % on 24th June therefore it is a legitimate subject point along with all of the other events that drive the SP. Yes you are right it was a democratic vote but as so many folk just did not understand the economics ( not surprising given both sides exaggerations and half truths ) the true and fair democratic way forward is for the EU and our EU ministers to negotiate and then bring back the proposals for a full all party debate and having seen a decent passage of time out of which will come economic data showing a more meaningful impact to the average man in the street. Then it should be put either a parliamentary or maybe a ref 2. So with regards to you' get over it' comment . No we can't as this has a long long way to go yet before any one can truly judge the merits or remaining or leaving.

A quick roam around the brokers and it seems that we should expect an interim of around 7 p against 6.75 last time for the interim.

Consensus seems to be an interim of circa .6.3 p against 6.05 for last interim....

Couldn't agree with you more..... All I hear from Brexiteers is that it will be alright in a few years time.. Well it was quite alright pre 23 June... They all seem to discount the decimation of GBP against the majors and the huge additional cost this brings to our net import bill each month.. yes cheaper for exporters but many of those import raw goods to manufacture before finally exporting . When pushed into actually articulating what they mean by the many 'phrases ' they parrot from the now mostly invisible Brexiteer leaders , they can't get off first base. This was amusing and I apologize to SCfc on the Lloyds board for re posting but it summarizes Brexit very nicely. .... Let's hope that after the pre A50 negotiations with the EU we have an all party debate and at least the MP's have a vote on whether or not to go forward with A 50.. UK: "I want a divorce." EU: "But, I Love You. Please don't go." UK: "It's no use, you're stifling me." EU: "Oh Please, Darling... I know we've had our problems; but I'm sure we can work it out together." UK: "I'm sorry. I still love you, but I need my own space." EU: "You're breaking my heart; but I wouldn't want you to be unhappy. I'll speak to my Solicitor. When are you going?" UK: "Not yet." EU: "What do you mean, 'not yet'." UK: "Well, I haven't really thought about anything other than getting a divorce. So I thought I'd live here with you for a couple of years while I work out what getting divorced actually means for me." EU: "So you have made a massive, life-changing decision without giving any thought as to the ramifications?" UK: "Yes. So we need to discuss what I want after the divorce goes through." EU: "What you want after the divorce goes through?" UK: "Yes." EU: "What do you mean?" UK: "Well, I thought I would move out so I can be free to make relationships with whoever I want. And I would stop paying you any money for the mortgage and the kids. But you would still cook for me, wash and iron my shirts, let me have access to your TV when Match of the Day is on; oh and agree to have sex with me a mininum of four times a week." EU: "I see." UK: "So what do you think?" EU: "Go on now, go, walk out the door. Just turn around now; 'Cause you're not welcome anymore. Weren't you the one who tried to hurt me with goodbye? Do you think I'd crumble? Did you think I'd lay down and die?"

Does anyone have a feel or seen any forecasts ( backed up by at least some logic or fact ) for SL when they announce on the 9th August ?

Does anyone have a feel or seen any forecasts ( backed up by at least some logic or fact ) for AV when they announce on the 4th August ?

I don't think that you can compare Vod with SL in terms of the consolidation as they were a result of two very different actions. Vod was as merger which in my experience usually generates a healthy SP spike at the outset only for it to fall back once all of the projected cost saving synergies, combined revenue generation opportunities meet headwinds of varying degrees. With SL this was recognition that their long standing Canadian business had matured to a level at which it was very saleable. SL also recognized that their business sector had become very competitive there and historic margin levels were not sustainable hence the sale and exit of this particular market. I will remain invested in this company for a good while yet and expect them to continue with the progressive dividend policy and pay out to shareholders in the form of special divs if they generate cash surplus to requirements as they have done in the past .

Standard operate a progressive dividend policy and have consistently increased their payouts during the recent years. Dividends are as you know paid as pence per share but the market place benchmarks them as yield expressed as a percentage of the SP. Therefore in order maintain and improve their yield in relation to the markets expectations and continue to attract new investors and keep us existing shareholders happy they will for sure improve the pence per share payouts for future pay outs on the reduced number of shares in circulations. The other positive fact of having a reduced number of shares in circulation or float is that when pension or hedge funds ( or indeed any other large block purchases ) buy in more stock then the SP has more potential to rise as there is less stock in the hands of the market makers.

Yes I have to agree as to why people are griping about a few hundred pounds when the net gain of their overall holding has risen considerably. One of the golden rules of investing is that you rarely get in at the lowest price and rarely exit at the highest price either but should take an objective view of the gains you make and be happy, In the case of SL - which is a well managed outfit , if you have been there for a few years you should be extremely happy with todays position.

The issue of the missing money is quite simply the fact that you have not had the 73 p yet and if you had it and re invested it in SL shares then the status quo would have been maintained.at 401 they reduced your holdings by 2/11 which equated to the 73 p .As the Registrars/ brokers/ LSE / CREST all need to time to communicate / coordinate the re based share holdings ( a huge amount of work and effort for an issue such as SL) then there is a time lag. In a perfect world we would have had the re based calculation at 401 and a posting of 73 in cash to your account on the same day thus enabling you to choose to re invest in SL. Had this been possible then your 2/11 's or 73 would have kept pace with the SP rise. As it is the sum of all the 73ps are in limbo in SL's Treasury Dept awaiting a lump sum payment to the Registrar and then on to our brokers or direct if you hold them at SL's agent Capita on or around the 1st April.

If your shares are held in an ISA and / or a SIPP then you do not need to do anything re electing for B or C shares as they will default to C ie income. Your tax position is irrelevant for the purposes of electing for B or C IF you are holding these shares in ISA and / or SIPP as they are tax free for CGT and income tax. I know that this is nothing new for most but aimed at those who are still a little confused by this whole process.

No Bonz1957 is as always spot on with his comments. I would actually go further and say that this realization of cash for the shareholders is costing us all, some more than others, depending on individual tax situations. If you intend to re invest the 73p cash element of your new post consolidation holding or indeed in any other stock , then you will have to pay SDRT ( stamp duty at 50bps ) and broking comm plus of course the bid - ask spread. But you have to weigh this all against the generally very good performance the stock has achieved since the dark days of 2008 so there should not be too many moans and groans from long term holders of SL. It is just a way of SL adjusting their balance sheet which in turn forces us shareholders to take some cash. It is certainly not free money.

I believe this to be the calculation to ascertain the base cost to apply against the total proceeds of your special div if you go down the B Share ie Capital option. If you paid £500 for 100 shares, and you are receiving £73 in this process and the value of the shares immediately after the dividend is £600 then the attributable base cost is [73/(600+73)]*£500. This amount should be deducted from the total proceeds in order to give you your capital gain.

Have come a long way in a short space of time, I have taken some profits and kept some in the event Barcs deal comes off and has good terms.