Member Info for GaryJ

Yes indeed true bu that is a latest date . HL have explicitly stated 19th May in all communications and also on the nominal B Share line on account summary.

YEs Barclays are tardy at best , plain awful at worst. They tend to hide behind the regulatory 5 days grace period to post divis when in reality they should be posted and available before opening on the pay date - that is partly why we have rec date so far in advance of pay date thus allowing ( especially in old days of residual form stock ) for the broker to reconcile back to the registrar records. Now, with tech this should be super easy so no excuse . I moved all my accounts and family accounts to HL who are much much better but still do not make div funds available pre open. In their defense today they have Av and Lloyds divs and the Av b share.

yes agree..

As Casual Investor quite rightly says current MarCap less cash returned = implied MarCap of £16bn to £12.37 to give an SP of £4.52 odd with the reduced 2.8 bn shares in circulation. But it would not take an awful lot of the £3.7 bn to return to raise the SP post Cap re org plus obviously any large tranches of shares bought (say funds ) post Cap Re Org will have a more positive impact on SP as there are less shares around. However, don't forget there will be natural sellers as any B share cash is re invested over time so this anything but linear and predictable by simple maths alone.

You also have to factor in post Cap Re Org that some ,or hopefully much of the B share cash proceeds will find it's way back into Aviva so instead of having £3 odd billion on balance sheet some of this will be re invested ..

And,as many of said, remember that this is a forced sell of circa 25 % ( details in Apr) of your holding mandatory Corp Action is it is a reasonable assumption that a fair (ish ) proportion of the cash resulting from B shares cancellation will find its way ( over time ) back into Aviva post re org in the dips, which with less shares in circulation, will certainly help SP .

Well explained Trotsky. .. your point re enterprise value is very important. With these types of Corp Action where a reset of the number of shares in issues occurs you have to keep in mind that the fundamental value ( not necessarily market cap) does not change . Therefore on very simple maths there has to be a re basing of the SP post reset. Given their ( in RNS ) 400 p example the implied reset SP value would be circa plus £5.ie the company value / market cap divided by the new less total of shares in issue. As you say that is the theory but there will be an upwards reset of SP on the appointed day subject of course to their announcement of the details in early April .

A suggestion ... there are over 500,000 Aviva individual shareholders. If every shareholder donated a mere £5 out of todays div and or capital distribution , to be matched by the BOD , to Ukraine refugees, via JustGiving then > £ 5 mio would be raised . Aviva and it's shareholders would have done a good deed.

Yes probably count as CGT but you will be able to offset some cost of purchase and if this goes the same way as Standard Life a few years ago, you will get an option to reinvest or take cash as a capital distribution. There will be a formula issued to give you the base cost allowable to be used as an offset against any capital gain together with of course any CGT allowance you have available / spare of the current £12,300 UK annual CGT exemption.

If they keep up buying in in at this rate until the rec date in April then they will save them selves circa £11 mio in div payments on the canceled shares , enough to pay Nunn for 2 x years !!

sorry ,25% profit our shares as per Grimmo's v gd post.

I like the thinking and it a plausible plan. Can't see Blanc and co offering it though . Also the buy in profit of 20% of our shares at a profit of £1 may give rise to a forced CGT cost ,however that would also apply, although just straight inc tax on any cash divi which may be for some at the higher marginal rate. Much of institution cash invested here is in anticipation of good use of the disposal cap in terms of both future rev and shareholder payouts . The year end results ( unlikely to be bad or have any nasties based on Q1-Q3) , is going to almost entirely be focused on what they do with cash and how that translates to yield for this and near term future years. Similar situation with Lloyds , awash with cash, and cap generation , nasties in the past , but needs to restore its position of a high yielder.

I am not saying that the numbers are not good , they are, it is the lack of flair and vision that Blanc has displayed since her appointment and continued re stating of old news and events , at the Q3 stage , when we should at least be hearing a little more about the future plans and growth.

absolutely agree. Blanc has been at the helm for 15 months ( honeymoon period came and went without a whimper of anything profound ) and still dining out on news , most of which were concluded or hatched before they hauled her off her retirement sunbed. As you rightly where is there any indication of detail? Yes , she says H1 2022 but what about more details - could not be less than she has revealed thus far . Most of the good results have come about due to previous CEO's (Wilson ) drastic pruning of cost and restructuring plus market conditions recovering, No hint of how increased cap base going to be deployed to generate future increased revenues.

I concur with the divi disappointment but knowing from decades of working in the sector, I suspect that despite the PRA's official ' unshackling' there is still some unofficial soft guidance in place. All three Banks divis correlation to key numbers in their respective results appear to support this theory.

Tks for the response. I had accrued a 12 p as a provisional payout which concurs with your reasoned post. I had forgotten about the sale of the Indian biz windfall, and as there is no compensating sale in H2 , plus if AUM have continued a downward trend, then we would need some increased margin type news to bring the net to level where they can pay out a progressive div.

I have not been following too closely posts, press with regards divi prospects fro next Tuesday .

Last 2 x years have yielded 7.30 Interim and 14.30 final. Does 14.30 or thereabouts appear to be the consensus ?

The shares allocated should be cancelled.

Maybe the Gov/ B of E should be suspending coupon payments on gilts too. If are directing plc's to suspend divs to prop up balance sheets then surely to be consistent coupons on their own stock should go. Gov balance sheet will not look pretty after this episode.

Total For Industry - Lloyds = approx. 40% of all industry claims

Monthly Millions
May 403
June 383
July 353
Aug 342
Sep 309
Oct 353
Nov 306
Dec 253

I dont' expect any further PPi provs in the full year . When they reported at the half year point and added a further .5 odd bn they said ( once again ) that this be sufficient to Aug 2019 at the then current run rate. Since then the level of industry claims have fallen - see below..
Feb 361
Mar 389
Apr 398
May 403
June 383 387 Av Prev 5 mths. Lloyds add further provs as this point
July 353
Aug 342
Sep 309
Oct 353
Nov 306 332.6 Av Prev 5 mths

Lloyds account for approx. 39- 41 % of the total industry claims .Therefore if they had enough at the half year and the run rate has subsequently fallen , then they should have enough in the pot given the FCA figs up until Nov.

Have not seen too much in the way of divi forecasts for next week. Has anyone else picked up any recent research notes ?