Been looking at CEG today after learning about yesterday's local Tornado. Many moons ago, to my deepest regret, I invested a large sum of money in LGO. CEG is, of course, the bastard grandchild of LGO.
All the things that made me invest in LGO are still present with CEG. What worries me (and makes me hesitant to dip my toes in again) is that the factors that caused the decline of LGO and every other reincarnation since are still largely present.
Improved oil prices aside (very important, of course), it just looks like more rinse and repeat. New name, new CEO, but the same method of raising finance through open offers then consolidations - AND THE SP TRAJECTORY IS ALWAYS HEADING DOWN!
Can someone tell me - (I see LTID posting - seem to recall he was LGO back in the day)...what does this old dog have going for it today that LGO or BPC couldn't make a success of in the past?
I would really like to see this company succeed and I'd love to recoup the significant losses I made with CEG's grandparent. Can it do that?
Galvy
I see there was a significant tornado yesterday (3pm) near one of CEG's interests at Los Iros. Some environmental damage has been caused with floodwater mixing with oil spill at Erin and Columbus.
https://www.facebook.com/TTWeatherCenter/videos/oil-spill-reported-in-the-flood-waters-at-carapal-road-erinlive-updates-httpsttw/243671657611698/
I agree. I dumped this company when it opened today. Just too many uncertainties and a week ago there was maybe a glimmer of hope that the current Covid-19 crisis had an ending on the horizon. I don't see that now. I made a small loss but live to fight another day elsewhere when the time is right.
Toff,
I'm no expert nor novice...but somewhere in between (more novice than expert TBH). I've made some catastrophic errors in the past but thankfully more than made up for it by being lucky elsewhere. You're 100% regarding Broker Views. They're either to be ignored or to be used as a contrarian strategy - if they say buy, then you probably want to sell - or possibly vice-versa. I'm a news junkie. It helps to have a well-rounded knowledge of current affairs.
In the past few years I stayed mainly in cash but with some money in the most boringly "safe" FTSE stocks. Did well enough out of doing that to fulfil a major goal I'd set myself. It's part of my work duties (resilience) to stay informed regarding risks and I saw this crisis coming back in January (and reported it). So I setup a new ISA to take advantage when the proverbial hit the fan and I'd given everything some time to assess what might happen.
I haven't bet the farm on this but it's worth a punt. As I said, this SP has been dropping for seven years. How low can it go? Can it really go bust.? It's possible, of course; but I doubt it. There are many problems, of course. If all was well it wouldn't be sitting where it is. But there is an opportunity for the business to be repaired and that's why I'm here taking a long view of at least two and probably more like five years to see a decent return (including future dividends...hopefully . I have learnt the art of patience.
Best of luck to you and everyone on here with your respective investments.
ITV is still all about advertising revenue (at least for now and until Britbox takes off or at least shows promise). Their entire marketplace is all but closed down due to Covid-19. What is the point in advertising a business that is closed? None at all! If you can't fly to Italy or Spain, then there isn't much point in airlines, hotels, travel websites etc. asking you and I to part with our cash. And those companies now also have to conserve their cash to get through this. There are plenty other examples. If/when there is a resolution to this tragedy ITV will recover as their customers recover. It may take some time but I bought in yesterday because I'm confident all will be well in time. It could drop a good bit yet though.
The SP has been dropping like a stone for seven years. What makes you think another couple of pence lower makes it 'bearish'? Anyway, I'm in with the paltry return from part of my mortgage endowment. What the hell.
Wish I knew. Since they buyer is SL and the seller (effectively) is ADN, I would guess that SL will have to pay a premium otherwise, what's in it for the seller? So it may lower SL's price but boost ADN's. But then again I think this merger is great for both companies. If the market agrees then both parties will benefit short term...and there is every reason to think the merged company (and thus the SP - post merger) will do well in the long term. I hold SL but not ADN. Will I sell?? I doubt it very much. The divi is too good and always rides out the dips. The divi is too consistently good to sell out for any short term incentive. I don't see much 'Synergy' in this merger; I just see two really great asset managers about to share their book and their fund managers. It's an expansion merger I see here rather than one where, for example, two like-for-like organisations close down call centres and merge back office staff to save on costs. There will be some synergy, but this is a story of one great asset manager putting their heads together with another great asset manager. I did a very, very crude fag packet calculation earlier tonight based on the ratio of each others shares in circulation and market cap. I see nothing to concern anyone - market, shareholders, management or employees. That's my take on the news but if I was so talented to predict this outcome, I'd be writing from somewhere warm and sunny. :-)
Staying on topic then (despite the fact that the EU referendum is, whether we like it or not, linked to the success of this company) I will continue to top-up shares in SL.. The dividends are great and the SP has only really fallen (in my view) because of the uncertainty surrounding in or out of the EU. Once the dust has settled the SP will recover regardless of the result. But in the long term, the business will benefit if ordinary working people throughout the UK have a bit of money in their pockets and have the confidence to spend it without the continual fear of losing their job. Fear results in consumers becoming savers. Most companies, including Standard LIfe, benefit from us having the confidence to invest in markets and to provide for our retirements. If we stop buying their products then revenue and profit falls then so too does the dividends and the SP.
Many people, myself included, have observed about the many similarities of the 'Project Fear' tactics adopted by the 'NO/Remain' side in the Scottish independence/EU referendums. Don't be surprised to see some exciting and compelling (yet ultimately vague and non-binding) promises of more powers/concessions for the UK at the eleventh hour. The only thing I would take issue about with you is that free movement is a red herring. The people who most strongly support Brexit are on the right of the Tories - Patel, Fox, IDS...and then there's UKIP. Immigration is a red herring and what Brexit is really all about is making it easier to dismantle employment rights, human rights and the welfare state to transfer even more money from ordinary working people to those that Fox, Patel etc. (including Rupert Murdoch) represent. Do ordinary people really believe that Ian Duncan Smith gives a toss about immigration? This man would want disabled Polish children sweeping chimneys if he could get away with it (and if we still had a need for it) - if there was a few more quid profit in it for him and his like. The EU is a Capitalist regime - but it is still far further to the left than UKIP and IDS's chums. The EU has implemented rights and frustrated the UK right. That's what this is really all about; but such truths would never win a referendum. So blame all our ills on Johnny Foreigner and stir up racial hatred among the masses. That'll do the trick. Last minute promises worked for the Scottish referendum. I fear it won't quite make it this time.
When do shareholders get their 73p x number of shares held from the sale of SL's Canadian business?
That's interesting,but I doubt it would be so easy under international law. If it was, would it mean that an independent Scotland could just invite Cumbria, Nothumberland or Cornwall into Scotland - or a new political union? Somehow I doubt it very much.
...and take a butchers at FJET. It's a long shot but it just might work. I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but maybe a few overtime shifts worth.
You're a nice person, Sam,. I wish you and your family the very best of luck. £50k is a huge loss - far greater than my losses. You were just unlucky! I hope you do invest in shares again. I am sure both if us will be better future investors having learnt the harsh lesson we have on this donkey. Invest in a "safe" bet and stick a few hundred quid into a long shot. You never know!! Keep in touch!! :-)
I'm flying out to Murcia for a four-day recce trip next month. Doubling up as a Mothers day present (taking my Mum with me - who's a better house-hunter/negotiator than I am). I can't really afford to buy a place, but I'm going to anyway - if I can get a mortgage. it won't be my 'dream home' and it won't even be as good as the kind of place I did think I would be able to afford; but it will be a start. :-)
This started well for me and I thought I was going to get the kind of result I should have got with Premier Foods (I got out too early) and Thomas Cook (I declined to invest thinking that people, like myself, would use the internet to book their own flights and accomodation). I made a few thousand pounds of profit and then BANG it dropped from approx 40p to 20p in the space of a few hours. I got out a day later mindful of something I'd been reading/watching about investment psychology and accepting/avoiding losses.
Thanks Martin. I'm not hurting too badly now and have gotten over the feeling of thinking I was stupid etc. I'm still investing, but have taken a more cautious (but not too cautious) approach. The 'stupid' bit was not setting a stop loss. Who would ever have thought that simply oversleeping could lose one such a lot of money? I am philosophical about it. It was a very harsh lesson that will not be learned twice. I am now much more interested in funds now but, for the time being, will invest myself into safer bets and take a more steady approach.
I am very sorry to hear you lost out, Sam. I hope you live to fight another day. I lost half of my life savings on this. Savings that I had ambitions to buy a wee place in Span with. Nothing special - just a wee basic house or apartment, not a millionaire's villa. But just somewhere where my family and I could bolt to now and then and for me, maybe a place to spend a few months each year in retirement. I invested against every muscle and sinew that was telling me not to. A lesson learned! I will recover. I hope you will too. I'm sure you will! I would direct your questions to your broker. Mine (Barclays Stockbrokers) have always been helpful in answering my questions.
I initially gained a nice earner on ABM after their initial crash in October. I subsequently lost a huge part of my savings only a few weeks later. It still hurts. I had a realistic plan to buy a holiday home for my family and I to enjoy in Spain. That is now a dream...for the time being. My view is that ABM is a dead duck. But my stock performance over the past year suggests no one should place much faith in anything I might have to say on investments. Yet, I sold out at 19p per share and avoided losing the farm. To those who are either in or out of this mess...good luck; I wish you well. Can we please move on and make his board a better and more informative place to be by dropping the *****ing ? There are no experts here. All of us at one time or another have lost or gained.
How can it be an overreaction when the RNS warns that the shares will now offer 'limited value'. Limited value to me means they are now virtually worthless. I mean, compare the situation and share price now to TCG and PFD back in their darkest days a couple of years ago. PFD was 6p (before they consolidated) and TCG was at 10p - but they were both still going concerns and trading healthily.
N+1 Singer says 'buy'. Are they having a laugh?