RE: Avacta fits the bill .... P Hill25 Apr 2023 08:53
After a relative fallow period during the pandemic, 2023 has seen a resurgence of M&A across drug-development. In fact in the past 2 months alone, there’s been a flurry of proposed deals - Pfizer’s $43bn purchase of Seagen, Merck $10.8m bid for Prometheus Biosciences, Inc. (75% premium), and GSK’s $2bn acquisition of Bellus Health (100%).
Other large Biotechs that also need to replenish their pipelines include Bristol Myers Squibb, Royalty Pharma, AbbVie, Biogen, Gilead Sciences and Viatris.
The common thread being that Big Pharma typically targets smaller firms progressing world beating new therapeutics through late stage clinical trials.
To me Avacta fits the bill, once its lead drug candidate AVA6000 (hopefully) enters Phase 2 trials sometime over the next 1-2 years alongside generating 1st sales in 2026.
Ok, so where do we stand?
Well the good news according to todays’ FY'22 prelims (re -£15.1m EBITLA on sales of £9.7m. Split £5.5m therapeutics & £4.2m diagnostics) is that everything remains on track. Plus with £41.8m of cash in the bank as at 31st Dec’22 - there should be ample capital for the foreseeable future.
Elsewhere Oct’22’s £24.9m acquisition of Launch Diagnostics Limited (FY’22 revs £4.0m) has bedded down well, with potential smaller bolt-ons possible in order to ultimately create a substantial in-vitro diagnostics (IVD) business.
CEO Alastair Smith commenting: “The outlook for AVA6000 and the pre|CISION platform as a whole looks very promising, based on the safety, pharmacokinetic and tumour biopsy data obtained to date. The next significant value driver for AVA6000 will be the initial efficacy data from the Phase 1b dose expansion phase in patients with soft tissue sarcoma.”
Chairman Dr Eliot Forster adding: “I firmly believe that our pre|CISION and Affimer technology platforms have the real potential to deliver an extensive pipeline of oncology drugs that will make a meaningful difference to cancer patients’ lives. The future prospects for Avacta are very positive indeed.”
Finally wrt valuation, broker Trinity Delta have (re 17th Jan'23) a risk adjusted NPV estimate for Avacta of 221p/share.