Member Info for Frogjumper

DX's best strategy is to take a long hard look at the freight that Tufnells has been carrying and try to take the volume that best matches its own capability whilst raising the price of current freight that is less attractive so that it goes elsewhere.

I totally agree with Ports. I'll add that the valuation model won't have considered the fact that DX has been run by a bunch of clowns, causing all sorts of problems, and that the current management (who were all at DX during the difficulties) haven't yet shown that they're any better.

I just don't see DX going anywhere on its own. It's always been looking for *that* opportunity that will replace its document exchange business and it's never really found it. If the IDW freight market grows then DX might be able to grow with it but the express business is on a hiding to nothing unless they can find (or create) a niche that they can exploit and I doubt that the people running express are clever enough to find one.

The separation of freight and express continues to make sense because it provides dedicated facilities for the growth of the freight business and allows express to be sold or shut down without causing disruption to the freight network.

Unhooked: The restoration of the dividend was flagged yonks ago and, as Ports has said, there's been no news since that would cause a change in the share price. Wouldn't you rather be in the doldrums than sinking in a storm?

Mrgamble: I wonder if that's across the board or whether they're targetting price rises on unprofitable business?

The only thing that will raise DX's share price substantially is a merger of some kind, with DX as the target or the acquirer, and I suspect that's what Gatemore is banking on. Otherwise, given DX's long history of disappointing its investors, some of whom hugely overpaid for shares at the IPO, the market is going to avoid it. Once burned, twice shy, but in DX's case the management keep branding you with a red hot poker.

"I'm still far, far from understanding the AIM and frankly speaking will probably never understand the game the way I should."

What's there to understand that doesn't apply to other markets? Other than that firms quoted on AIM are smaller than those quoted elsewhere, will often have poorer management, are more susceptible to the actions of large shareholders and are therefore riskier. But if you don't understand "the game" you shouldn't try playing it and should instead by index trackers like most other people.

More positively spun news from DX. Although it doesn't lead me to change my mind about them.

The recent RNS is just a further instance of business-as-usual presented as good news, although I suppose it is better news than net depot closures.

To me it's also further evidence of a desire within DX to separate the express and freight operations in order to make one or the other more attractive to potential buyers or to allow the easier closure of the express business. I suspect that Bracknell isn't really a new regional hub, it's just the relocation of the express activities that were previously in Colnbrook.

GRNNRG: You must be having a laugh. DX is never going to do much in the parcels market because there's just too much undifferentiated competition. It needs to concentrate on niches.

Oh well, after a little excitement the market appears to have cooled down again.

Contrary to some expectations DX has actually managed to pay a dividend!

Portswigger: DX is such a peculiar bird that it's not surprising they're taking so long finding a new CEO. Presumably they don't think either of the internal candidates is suitable.

"it doesn't disguise what a complete mess they are in." Royal Mail have a clear motivation to keep pointing out what a complete mess they're in. They want the government to reduce the regulation on them. I think you have to always be sceptical about whether things are really as bad as they make out.

Sister: "Apparently, the rumour round the camp fire is that IDS will be split up and businesses sold off as it's only GLS that's making any money." You don't have to listen to camp fire rumours: https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1668680158879368300/top-news-ids-may-split-off-royal-mail-asks-to-cut-delivery-days.aspx

Should be a busy Christmas for DX Group ..... apart from the fact that the economy's in dire straits.
and the recent expansion news should help the stock performance ..... only if the extra capacity (if there is any) actually gets used.

Email: Yes, I came out with a small gain so am content. What's keeping the share price is an inability to see any profits in the future. Yes, Royal Mail has its problems but the delivery industry is ferociously competitive and any profit is quickly competed away. Over the years DX has had periods when it has been able to escape this pressure on profits by dominating niches. The original one was the document exchange which made massive profits for Hays when they owned DX but they had the foresight to sell it off twenty years ago. DX then had a period of success after acquiring SMS and its secure delivery niche but this came to an end with the introduction of chip and pin for bank cards and the loss of the UK passport delivery contract. DX's purchase of Nightfreight was initially a disaster but Lloyd Dunn managed to turn it around, again by being strong in a niche. But now he's gone and the question is what comes next? Unless DX finds a way to build its business profitably (and I don't believe it will do this in the express parcels sector) it can only continue bumbling along with a lacklustre share price until it is, hopefully, acquired by some mug or eventually dies. I don't see the growth opportunities at DX, hence I've decided to invest my money elsewhere.

Email: Your question made me realise that I haven't the foggiest idea about what could cause the shares to rise and I therefore decided to sell my holding. That means they'll probably go up. Anyway, my relationship has now come to an end and I can put my money somewhere else.

Sisteract: "notice that DX have a vacancy for a customer service advisor - ref... 'us embassy'. I wonder what that's about ."

DX have been delivering visas for the US Embassy (and others) for many years.

Unhooked: "I saw another DX van yesterday - typically dirty and driven very fast. Perhaps they're very, very busy... " The drivers might be busy that this might indicate there aren't enough of them.