Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Its a rainy morning in Dublin, I gather. The city and all surrounding roads are at a standstill. Public transport has been switched off, so effectively no access to the city-centre . Truckers are protesting about fuel prices and carbon taxes. According to them, the combination of racing fuel prices and Brexit complications adds up to a massive loss of competitiveness, for an island nation, which is negatively affecting everyone. For today anyway, the gilets jaunes are the loudest. The sources and price of oil and gas are only going to become more politicised as the 'just transition' takes off. If only Ireland had this taken care of for the next 10 - 15 years, while renewables ramp up. What an ideal situation that would be.
A good article in today's Irish Independent by Conor Skehan, referenced earlier. Accurate and plain.
In a way, Barryroe is already a discovery. It just needs to be set free!
From first reading the COP26 draft agreement will not drive additional restrictions (beyond those already in place) on oil and gas exploration, even in Europe, until after the proposed next high-level meeting in 2023. An so a final 18 month window for Providence Resources get everything aligned to drill (any kind of drilling!), entirely legitimately, legally and compliant with all existing regulations. Breathing space, but not much. The new 'strategic plan' will have to be heavy on speed and agility.
I see Shell has confirmed its commitment to fully develop the Cambo oil-field, 120 km north of the Shetland Isles. Work is well advanced, the project is obviously well-funded and resourced, technically and otherwise. (Unlike Barryroe, it is in water over a kilometre deep). The UK government however are dragging their feet with an extraction licence. It will be an interesting insight to the future of even well-organised projects in this part of the world. A similar situation to the potential scenario in Ireland.
Not sure if Phoenix is transmitting messages and clues from 'connections', or if they are giving their independent observer opinion. Either way they still seem surprisingly encouraging about the prospects - and unmoved by the obvious heat being generated in Glasgow at COP26.
Thanks Irl-Inv, well spotted. Does that imply the O'Ds bailing out, or transferring the holding to another vehicle? For a sale one would have expected it to crash the floor of the market (such that it is) unless another shareholder had arranged to pick them up. Not pocket-change either way.
Re the 42 million trade yesterday, remember this was not the day before the Chief Exec quits. The resignation was effective yesterday, and notified to the market today. The 42 and the 10 million trade today could be one of the newer/interesting private shareholders re-thinking and unwinding their position. Not to be the bearer of bad 'speculation' . . .
Yes, of course everyone is entitled to their own opinion. Full marks to that. However as you know it is the crude presumption that a relentlessly negative view is 'realistic' and a positive perspective is 'pie in the sky' that probably irks the right-minded grown-ups interested in real dialogue and discussion.
It is a pity that whenever Providence Resources makes the mainstream news headlines, it is never a 'good news story'. It is hard to see any positive in this resignation, at this point. The only thing is, it does draw attention to the bizarre detailed article in The Phoenix a couple of months ago setting out the view that Providence's only and main problem is the Chief Exec, AL. It seemed very random at the time, but was obviously published for some particular reason. The Phoenix conclusion was that Steve Boldy is the ideal leader to get Barryroe to drilling stage.
Sorry for Mr. Linn - 'Spot-On' was a failure and there were ups and downs in the last eighteen months, but he also made some very sure-footed decisions and clearly recognised that making a viable case for the development of Barryroe with COP 26 in the air is actually much more important to the project that the price of oil. The agenda has dramatically changed.
That is assertive buying on a Monday morning, particularly in view of the size of the free float. For every buyer though there is a seller. Curious that it hasn't excited the price more than it has. Maybe it is one of the newer private holders increasing their interest. They must be being informed by something other than this board! Good to see it though . .
You are entirely right in your summary Winchpete, and the prospects are not bursting with promise. The only caveat, perhaps, is that all the information and context on which your conclusion is probably based is fully available to, and no doubt has been considered by, the existing majority shareholders who have continued to provide cash for paper, to newer holders who have spent seven figure sums on taking a position, and to the new Board members. None of these are being forced by circumstances (one presumes) to follow this trail. There might be something at the end of it. Nonetheless, good post Winchpete, nice to see it.
Sterling interview with Mandy Johnston on 'The Hard Shoulder' on Newstalk radio this evening. Government and community need to face the reality that the future is gas until renewables achieve scale and reliability. Anti-fossil fuel and anti data-centre rhetoric will not power the economy, jobs and community until the day renewables can. The next ten years needs energy and it comes from the ground. A masterclass in (informed) common sense. Even better, MJ is getting her own show on Newstalk 'Taking Stock'. Expect more adult talk!
The half-year results are moving expectations further sideways, compared to the forward momentum the management generated in 2020. They have stopped referring to funding or financing, and are focusing attention on the new plan. The only definite is that the plan will be produced before the year end, whether the market sees it or not. The 'funding in place by Q3 or Q4' is off the table. This is a pity given the race against time PVR are engaged in. The renewed Board composition inspires some confidence since they all have valuable reputational and credibility risks to manage - Jimmy Menton, Andrew MacKay, Ann-Marie O'Sullivan and Peter Newman. At the same time, the 4,500,000 shares vested in each is a worthwhile long-odds gamble. I sincerely hope it works out, but in the event that it doesn't, none of them will be short of plausible explanations of what went wrong . .
Reading the lines, and between the lines, of the AGM presentations, it seems there will be no news one way or the other (though it does tend to be 'the other') until December at the earliest. Since there is nothing to discuss, a good idea to take a break . . .
The Providence AGM was entirely compliant with the provisions and obligations of the Companies (Miscellaneous Provisions) (Covid-19) Act 2020. No doubt. There is no point using up their very limited resources querying this.
Very disappointing to hear that another strategic review (re-think) is needed to consider how to pitch the financing proposition, and that there is not anything more advanced in train. On the plus side, it is reassuring to see the appointment of new Directors, all of whom have some reputation equity to protect, and must have been given a deeper insight to the game plan than visible this morning, in taking on the roles. However, it is a race against time, as it was in February 2020. If Barryroe is not in development within the lifetime of the current Government, it has no prospects whatsoever.
Really cannot believe I am reading this commentary, written about the new Board nominee. From adults? In 2021? Very surprising language and viewpoint. Fortunately the thinking in the PVR leadership is more in tune with the current business environment.
SM, you are a breath of fresh air. Thanks.
Good observation. However 70% of the holding was bought at about 4p not long after the appointment of Alan Linn as Chief Executive, and the remaining 30% bought this year at about 3.4p, so not a profitable venture so far for the investor, but added to at a time when the investor had full visibility of the current 'go it alone' funding approach. Still in it for the 'medium' haul, whatever about the long haul. A positive sign.
Just note in 'the Currency', they are still saying that Sean O'Driscoll is the holder of 4+% of the company, though this has been repeatedly denied in recent months. This should not be under-estimated. Mr. O'Driscoll has a global and highly strategic view, is connected to the kind of resources that can seriously support Providence. He may have plenty of resources himself, but is unlikely to be at a point in his investing journey that he is prepared to lose £1 million at the flip of a switch.