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The Phoenix (15th July) decidedly luke-warm on the appointment of Alan Curran as Interim Chief Executive. Drawing attention to the liquidation of Curran's own venture, Ortus Petroleum. Ortus (latin for 'Rising' incidentally, but I do not know if that is the background to the name) did not raise investment funds as hoped. The Phoenix may not be completely impartial about this since a few months ago they promoted the notion that Steve Boldy, the Lansdowne Oil and Gas Chief should be the next Chief Executive of Providence. At the time I assumed The Phoenix must be on to something. In any event, the major shareholders showed their support for the Board with the recent fundraising.
Can anyone copy this new article to this board please? I do not want to buy yet another subscription just for this one opinion, though it is The Times, so probably worth reading. Thank you, an advance . .
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tullow-and-capricorn-gushing-praise-for-merger-of-oil-peers-xt38pm3vp
After years of sideways movement, Providence (or whatever it becomes called) is finally in the hands of pros . . . Vevan/Roaring Waters/Pageant. They will deliver oil, quietly from under the sea, disturbing no-one. Interesting to read Leo Varadkar's interview this morning about the Government's huge initiative to lessen the impact of the massive cost-of-living increases. His soundbite is "large amounts of money are being sucked out of the country to pay for oil, gas and interest rate increases . . ". There is a sensible, practical message in there . .
We cannot say no-one is making the case for developing Barryroe. The rural independents have spelled it out in detail. The invasion of Ukraine and the energy price emergency make the ultimate case for developing Barryroe.
Until recently it was a great credit to the Chairman, J Menton, how he had led the St. Vincent's Healthcare Group to successfully navigate the extraordinary governance and stakeholder maze to advance the development of the badly needed new National Maternity Hospital in Ireland. This looked like a massive achievement. In reality, not unlike PVR, there were some hurdles remaining and all sorts of fears have been stoked to mobilise opinion against the project. The latest 'mini-twist' of Government Green TD Nessa Hourigan deciding to vote with Sinn Fein against (her) government shows how easy it is to be tripped up by the idiosyncratic 'green approach' to government. It seems J Menton has to find a way around green challenges on all fronts. Hopefully sense and justice will prevail . . and quickly.
Well done with the FoI requests Swizz, this is a useful and helpful contribution.
Minister Ryan's interview on RTE radio news this morning would almost make you weep. It is not really a criticism to say that Green Party philosophy or practice has no role in a war (unprovoked, unjustified on any grounds) situation. That is not what the Green Party was intended for. But they are the Government, and Governments cannot pick and choose the circumstances they have to deal with. It is like sending the swimming team to the Winter Olympics! His response to the immediate crisis for in and around Ukraine is to 'accelerate' the shift to renewables so Russia cannot fund such aggression with fossil fuel revenue, and to accommodate refugees (all committed to doing this anyway). Good, then, a twenty-year plan to address the urgent needs of the citizens of Ukraine.
It was all mumbling until he got to talk about converting wind power to hydrogen, then he was flying . . . obviously in his comfort zone. 'Pie in the sky' is clearly the comfort zone, when hypersonic missiles are a reality from Russia. On this performance, I would be very concerned that he is going to keep up the mumbling act in relation to the lease.
Definitely something beginning to sizzle. Maybe someone in the DECC has finally hit 'send' on the licence renewal?
In fairness (as they say in Cork, apparently), the stakeholder strategy, whatever it is, would not really be targeting the folks on these Boards. We will only really know the quality and impact of any stakeholder strategy in the decisions (if any) make during the rest of this year.
Nice to see the bounce Tullow is getting from the UK announcement to join the USA in banning Russian Oil and Gas imports later this year. Hardly a risk since the UK only gets 5% of oil and 3% of gas from Russian sources. It is increasingly extraordinary to see the steps being taken by the UK and others (notwithstanding the climate crisis) in relation to energy security, and the Department in Ireland is still managing to get away with the deflect/deny/delay routine. By any measure, shocking.
It is widely reported the Wind Energy developers complained yesterday to an Oireachtas Committee about the appalling delays in getting site survey certificates and planning permissions for off-shore works in Ireland. There is no way the windmill people can meet their targets for generating renewable energy with the snail-pace response from Government departments and decision-makers.
So its not personal, then!!
Yes and exactly a week ago, on Fri 18th Feb, the Green Party introduced legislation that sets out to ban the construction of any LNG infrastructure in Ireland. This done while the outcome of the so-called 'energy security' review is still being undertaken, to make sure that even if the review produces a rational conclusion that for energy security you need . . . energy, the 'ban' will prevent anything being done about it. Russia clearly doesn't give a fiddlers about greenhouse gas emissions, but unfortunately the Green Party in Ireland do not give a fiddlers about any version of contemporary realistic energy security. Ireland accounts for <0.1% of greenhouse gas emissions so even if the whole country is switched off and recedes into being an unpopulated forest, it makes no difference whatsoever to the principal 2030 and 2050 global targets. The Russia/Ukraine situation is a modern humanitarian and human rights catastrophe, and all of Europe is complicit in it because in settling on sanctions as the major/only response, (shockingly) all the sanctions are having oil, gas and coal transactions carved out of them to ensure that this trade continues with Russia. It is all a con.
It may mean nothing to the countries on the west of Europe, but it seems very unlikely now that Nord Stream 2 can be licensed any time in the next ten years, and surely there is the possibility that Nord Stream 1 will be suspended at some stage. The gas will have to come from somewhere (and somewhere with existing proximate infrastructure).
In fairness, the binding award is close to 10% of the market cap of Tullow, and since it is cash, the real effect of having to pay it out is a multiple of this. The drop in the SP today is relatively muted, all things considered.
It is hard to conclude that Providence are looking too far ahead, in view of the current lease delay. There will be no guarantees with Sinn Fein. Numerous SF representatives supported the BrÃd Smith LITG campaign. Sinn Fein policy is:
"Sinn Féin believes that we need to pursue ambitious
decarbonisation. There should be no new exploration for fossil fuels. Sinn Féin is bringing
forward legislation to ban fracking in the north."
It will come down to the interpretation of 'new'. By 2025, there will have been two more 'COPs' and the agenda will have moved on, and SF will be paying attention to their audience on this.
As it stands, Providence Resources' best and maybe only chance is the existing coalition. The only parties on the island whose current policy (and catch it while you can) supports any possibility of drilling are Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, and the DUP. While there is any combination of these, it's time to make hay.
Propose Phil Hogan for Chief Executive of Providence Resources. What he doesn't know about oil and gas exploration Andrew Mackay and Peter Newman can teach him. It will shorten the time-line, one way or the other.
I presume the small management team in Providence Resources are sufficiently communication-savvy to know not to leave it until tomorrow to say that the new plan is not ready to reveal. In that case by this time tomorrow we will know how they are pitching it now, at least. I am a bit surprised that there has been no word of a new Chief Exec yet, which suggests that Mr. Linn's exit was not part of a cunning plan. At the same time, it means the new CEO (if there is one, ever) will start with the new plan in place, rather than have to work one out on the hoof. Either an interesting 24 hours ahead, or another opportunity for Rafael BenÃtez facial expressions!
Yes, Providence Resources does enough of its own scare-mongering . . . we do not want to add to it!
The observation was not that the Norwegian SWF is moving away from oil (or gas, to be accurate) . . . of course not, it is the source of the Fund. The observation was that they have decided to get out of Ireland, that's all.
In any event, the current law in Ireland is that existing exploration licences are valid. and regardless of who is in what ministerial role, that is the law, and the Programme for Government (with Green participation) does not say any different. The change of government in two years or so will very likely change this, and so that is the absolute time limit for Providence to get the project running.
Six weeks out from Alan Linn's resignation, it does not look like the new Board had a ready-made replacement waiting in the wings, which is concerning. It would be reassuring to think that cunning tactics were being deftly implemented. It certainly does not look like The Phoenix were 'on to something' by bizarrely promoting in detail the notion of 'Boldy for Providence'. Note the view here is it was bizarre they were writing it, not bizarre that Mr. Boldy might be the right person for the role. Assuming the tiny team working on/in Providence Resources have a Christmas break like most others, hopefully only 22 more sleeps to the masterplan for greatness . . .
Notwithstanding the entirely right and necessary transition to net zero carbon emissions and commitment to 1.5c max warming, in view of the twists and turns on the route ahead before 2030 and 2040, and where the brokerage of gas and oil will concentrate in the meantime, I would not be surprised if oil does flow from Barryroe, in years to come statues will be erected in Ireland to the Providence Resources Directors who make it happen.
There is probably mixed news for Providence Resources in the Corrib sale. On the one hand, it could reflect a strategic decision by the Norwegians that notwithstanding the profitability of Corrib, Ireland is no longer the right place to be invested, given the regulatory noises. On the other hand, Vermilion are happy to acquire the stake, meaning that the Canadians are not squeamish about the future in Ireland . . . unless a further sale follows. Unlikely, though, since Vermilion are up to their elbows in many of the seas around Europe.